Erhöht Solvency II den Bedarf an Rückversicherung im Schaden-/Unfallgeschäft in Deutschland?

Reinsurers and reinsurance brokers are often of the opinion that the introduction of Solvency II will lead to changes in how re-insurance is purchased. Our analysis of these assumptions for the German property and casualty insurance market lead to a market survey. This survey revealed that overall the participating insurance companies expect no significant changes for their companies, although they do anticipate changes in buying patterns of the rest of the market and in the overall market environment. This paper examines the reasons for this difference in expectations between those of individual companies and those of the overall market.     

Personal value systems of Japanese trainees and managers in a changing competitive system

A study of personal values held by Japanese and foreign students, trainees and managers showed recent Japanese trainees slightly more conservative than their 1979 cohorts. Foreign students and foreign managers held more pro-American work values than either Japanese managers or trainees. Finally, for the Japanese respondents, there was some evidence of specific shifts away from the Japanese employment system in the areas of thenenko compensation and promotion systems in their organisations.Roy J. Adams is a Professor of Industrial Relations in McMaster University; Richard B. Peterson is a Professor of Management and Organization in the University of Washington; Hermann F. Schwind is an Associate Professor in St. Mary's University.     

Factors affecting brainstorming: towards the development of diagnostic tools for assessment of creative performance

To test a model of creative behaviour in teams, twenty five problem-solving groups were assembled from a Business School graduate programme, trained in creative problem-solving techniques and given a realistic product development task. Self-assessment ratings were collected for factors perceived as influencing performance. Three experienced trainers rated the ideas produced. Four major factors were identified from the self-assessed statements, each mentioned as positive and negative influences. The study provides a foundation for developing diagnostic tools for assessing creative performance in problem-solving teams, and gives pointers to factors which are important for improving performance.     

Re-examination of interest rate sensitivity of commercial bank stock returns using a random coefficient model

This article develops and tests a random coefficient two-index model for commercial bank stock returns which controls for the time-varying interest rate sensitivity caused by a bank's changing maturity profile. Using a sample of 51 actively traded commercial banks, the seemingly unrelated regression results provide evidence that commercial bank stock returns are significantly interest rate sensitive. The effect of interest rate changes on bank stock returns is found to be positively related to the maturity mismatch between the bank's assets and liabilities, when the proxy for interest rate changes and the proxy for maturity mismatch are compatible to each other.This article was written while I was a doctoral student at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. It was presented at the 1989 FMA Annual Meeting in Boston.     

Optimal international hedging in commodity and currency forward markets

This paper derives optimal hedging and production rules for an exporting firm which faces both commodity-price and foreign- exchange-rate uncertainty. The size of the commodity hedge is independent of the properties of the foreign-exchange market. However, the optimal foreign-exchange hedge depends on the commodity hedge and the properties of the commodity forward market. The firm's production decision is independent of its objective function if both forward markets exist, but depends on the consumption beta of the unhedgeable risks in the absence of one or both of the markets.     

The High-Volume Return Premium

The idea that extreme trading activity contains information about the future evolution of stock prices is investigated. We find that stocks experiencing unusually high (low) trading volume over a day or a week tend to appreciate (depreciate) over the course of the following month. We argue that this high-volume return premium is consistent with the idea that shocks in the trading activity of a stock affect its visibility, and in turn the subsequent demand and price for that stock. Return autocorrelations, firm announcements, market risk, and liquidity do not seem to explain our results.     

More or Less Ambition in the Doha Round? Modeling the Development Impact of Recent Proposals

We analyse the impact on developing countries, whose economies depend heavily on agriculture, of a WTO Doha Development Round agreement based on greater or lesser levels of ambition. We present the results of an ambitious versus an unambitious Doha Round outcome, using the MIRAGE model of the global economy, with a special focus on developing countries. Our simulations are based on negotiating proposals from the run-up to the Hong Kong ministerial meeting but not agreed upon in December 2005. We compare those outcomes with the estimated effects of full global trade liberalization. The results for the two Doha scenarios demonstrate the high stakes of this negotiation given the positions of EU, US and the G-20 coalition. A successful round could deliver real gains both globally and for developing countries, but the magnitude of those gains depends on the shape of the agreement. A reform outcome based on the most ambitious components of the negotiating proposals of the US and EU delivers noticeably greater benefits than an unambitious outcome. Developing countries are exposed to very contrasting fortunes. The details matter in the differing proposals, such as the tariff and domestic support reduction formulae, tariff caps, and number of sensitive and special products. Negotiating commitment and diligence are needed in 2006 to avoid a hollow Doha outcome given the technical character of these details.