Distance to default,subordinated debt,and distress indicators in the banking industry*

The recent financial crisis has highlighted the inadequacy of present supervisory arrangements to identify reliable ex‐ante indicators of banking distress. For a sample of US bank holding companies, we analyse the extent to which distance to default based on market data can be explained using accounting‐based indicators of risk. We show that a larger number of bank fundamentals help predict default for institutions that issue subordinated debt. For banks that issue sub‐debt, we find that higher charter values and low bank capitalizations further increase the power of bank fundamentals to predict default risk.     

Relationship between Managerial Compensation and Business Performance in Japan: New Evidence Using Micro Data*

This paper examines the relationship between the level of managerial compensation and the quality of corporate governance in Japan in the period following the bubble burst of 1991–1995. There are three main findings. First, Japanese firms with weaker governance have greater agency problems in that managerial opportunism extracts higher compensation and the firm performs relatively worse. Second, these agency problems were more severe during the recessionary period of 1994–1995. Finally, governance structures in industries with higher managerial compensation are relatively weaker than in other industries.     

Risk premia in international equity markets revisited

Recent evidence suggests that global equity markets are becoming more risky. We develop a model to explain risk premia in international equity markets. The model is then used to investigate the changing nature of conditional risk premia and their effect on unconditional global risk. Using this model we find that the increase in international variance and covariance of realized excess returns can be attributed to systematic variations in global risk premia correlated across markets as well. Understanding this additional source of increased global correlation is important. These results have interest both for practitioners and for those interested in modeling global asset prices.     

Non-Dummy Agents in Pure Exchange Economies

We introduce a very fundamental and important axiom of the non-dummy. This states that each agent can change the outcome of the mechanism at some preference profile, thus guaranteeing every agent the minimum right to affect the social decision. We study the possibility of strategy-proof, efficient and non-dummy mechanisms in pure exchange economies. We provide two new interesting classes of such mechanisms. The results shed light on the structure of strategy-proof and efficient mechanisms, and should promote a complete characterization of those mechanisms in pure exchange economies with three or more agents.     

Chances for a pacific free trade area

The establishment of the EEC was a major event of the 1960s. It has had a significant impact on international trade and investment and has wrought a profound change in the world balance of economic power. The emergence of the enlarged EEC and the implementation of a Pacific Free Trade Area (PAFTA) could have a more profound influence in shaping the world of the 1970s.     

Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree

Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes such as prices, production, and trade arising from differences in model inputs and model specification. This article presents climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By harmonizing key drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes were reduced. The particular choice of climate change drivers for this comparison activity results in large and negative productivity effects. All models respond with higher prices. Producer behavior differs by model with some emphasizing area response and others yield response. Demand response is least important. The differences reflect both differences in model specification and perspectives on the future. The results from this study highlight the need to more fully compare the deep model parameters, to generate a call for a combination of econometric and validation studies to narrow the degree of uncertainty and variability in these parameters and to move to Monte Carlo type simulations to better map the contours of economic uncertainty.     

Founders’ human capital and external knowledge sourcing: Exploring the absorptive capacity of start-up firms

ABSTRACT

This study highlights the importance of founders’ human capital on firms’ absorptive capacity for explaining the external knowledge sourcing (licensing-in and joint R&D) of start-up firms, using panel data from original questionnaire surveys conducted in Japan. The results of a probit model with an endogenous regressor show that firms managed by founders with a high level of specific human capital, measured as prior innovation experience and industry-specific work experience, tend to engage in external knowledge sourcing because of their superior absorptive capacity. The findings indicate that this type of human capital also promotes research and development (R&D) investment. Contrariwise, this study finds that firms managed by founders with a high level of general human capital, measured as educational attainment, tend to invest more in R&D, which enhances their absorptive capacity and thereby promotes external knowledge sourcing. Finally, the implications of these findings are discussed from the perspective of public policy.     

Multiple equilibria and structural transition of non-monocentric urban configurations

A model of non-monocentric urban land use is presented, which requires neither employment nor residential location to be specified a priori. It is shown that the model is capable of yielding multicentric pattern as well as monocentric and dispersed patterns, and that the model generally yields multiple equilibria under each fixed set of parameter values. It is also shown that the city may undergo a catastrophic structural transition when the parameters take critical values.