CONSTRUCTING A TAX-BENEFIT MODEL: WHAT ADVICE CAN ONE GIVE?

This paper takes the form of advice given to a hypothetical government on the construction of a tax-benefit model. The importance of the quality of the data and the care taken in its adjustment is emphasised. The choice of the unit of analysis, the requirements of the income data, methods of updating and the coverage and representativeness of the dataset as a whole is discussed. Caution in making use of estimates of behavioural change is advised. Throughout, examples drawn from the construction of TAXMOD, a model for the U.K., are used to illustrate particular points.     

On optimality and time consistency when expectations are rational

This paper explores the implications of time inconsistency for optimal economic policy-making. It is found that if policy-makers determine policy on the assumption that expectations are adaptive when in fact they are rational economic policy can be destabilising. This adds support to reservations which Kydland and Prescott (1977) have raised about the appropriateness of standard optimal control methods. A method is proposed which is a modification of standard optimal control techniques and which allows for the endogeneity of expectations. When this method is used to determine policy there is no indication that policy is destabilising.     

Interstate switched access demand analysis

The breakup of the Bell System in 1984 led to the adoption by the Federal Communications Commission of a system of tariff charges that are paid to local exchange carriers by business and residential telephone subscribers, and interexchange carriers such as AT&T. These charges are designed to recover the costs associated with providing access to the public switched network to complete interstate calls. This system is known as the FCC Access Charge Plan. Flat-rate fees, named Subscriber Line Charges, are imposed on telephone subscribers, while usage-based charges are billed to interexchange carriers. These are called Carrier Common Line and Traffic Sensitive rates. Since CCL and TS rates are based on network usage, forecasts of switched access demand are required to set them properly.This paper presents an econometric model of interstate switched access demand developed and utilized by AT&T to produce forecasts of 1988 demand in connection with the Annual 1988 Access Tariff Filings. The model is estimated in a state-level pooled cross-sectional time-series framework, with dynamics introduced via polynomial distributed lags on price and income. It represents an extension of the econometric demand model developed and used by the FCC a year earlier to determine a reasonable forecast of 1987 Carrier Common Line switched access demand. Estimated demand elasticities and forecasts are provided. The model forecasts are also compared to those from other models.     

Cotton market integration and the impact of China's new exchange rate regime

This article studies the integration of China's cotton market with the international market, especially the U.S. market. Investigating the futures prices from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in the U.S. and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in China with several time series models, we find that a long‐run cointegration relationship exists between these two series. The two markets share price transmissions, and based on results from an Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model, we find their price volatilities are similar. We argue that China's recent exchange rate reform and its gradual liberalization in bilateral cotton trade since it joined World Trade Organization have had important impacts on these futures markets. Based on these findings, several important economic and policy implications are derived.     

A model of destination branding: Integrating the concepts of the branding and destination image

Despite the significance of destination branding in both academia and industry, literature on its conceptual development is limited. The current study aims to develop and test a theoretical model of destination branding, which integrates the concepts of the branding and destination image. The study suggests unique image as a new component of destination brand associations. It is proposed that the overall image of the destination (i.e., brand image) is a mediator between its brand associations (i.e., cognitive, affective, and unique image components) and tourists’ future behaviors (i.e., intentions to revisit and recommend). The results confirmed that overall image is influenced by three types of brand associations and is a critical mediator between brand associations and tourists’ future behaviors. In addition, unique image had the second largest impact on the overall image formation, following the cognitive evaluations.     

Migration and agrarian transformation in Indigenous Mexico

Migration is of particular concern to Indigenous peoples and communities. It physically separates those who migrate from the land upon which collective processes of labour and ritual practice are often based, it affects congruence between individual and collective rationality (as migrants make the choice to maintain or relinquish community membership), and it robs communities of the adult residents who can be essential for projects of collective action. Using the concept of comunalidad, created by Indigenous intellectuals in Oaxaca, Mexico to analyse the importance of alternative practices surrounding land, labour, governance, and ritual found in the region, we show that while Indigenous villages are profoundly affected by different forms of migration, migration itself is not necessarily a “death knell” for Indigenous peasants. We argue that communities struggle—often successfully—to find ways to evolve and reconfigure themselves economically and politically, incorporating migration into the fabric of their daily lives and organizational structures. To make this argument, we draw on ethnographic research conducted with Indigenous Oaxacan transnational communities, both in the United States and Mexico.     

Designing a European unemployment insurance scheme

With disparities in national unemployment rates reaching record levels, the debate on fi scal stabilisers in Europe has gained new momentum. Can a European unemployment insurance scheme help to absorb asymmetric shocks and bring about the desired level of macroeconomic stabilisation? What should such an unemployment benefi t system look like? The contributions to this Forum explore the benefi ts expected from a European unemployment insurance scheme and discuss the diffi culties in establishing such a policy.     

Preparing for analysis: a practical guide for a critical step for procedural rigor in large-scale multisite qualitative research studies

Despite attention to technical aspects of conducting qualitative research, few studies describe procedures for managing pre-analysis activities in large-scale multisite qualitative projects. As part of the data collection for the Criminal Justice Drug Abuse Treatment Studies, a national multisite research cooperative with nine research centers (RCs) conducted 700 semi-structured interviews to evaluate interorganizational strategies in three protocols focused on improving addiction- and health related service delivery in criminal justice settings. Guided by the research cooperative, RCs collaborated on many aspects of the qualitative data activities (e.g., codebook development and coding activities), however, pre-analysis procedures, such as organizing and managing resources, were primarily managed at the RC level. The present study examines these various practices and describes two exemplary approaches to pre-analysis, with emphasis on lessons learned and recommendations for coordinating resources, managing data, and maintaining fidelity to the study procedures for large-scale qualitative projects.     

Are there asymmetries in UK Consumption? A time series analysis

In this paper we use time series techniques in order to test for asymmetric dynamics in UK consumption. The notion that fluctuation over the business cycle are asymmetric has been put forward at various times in the last century. Nevertheless, the most common representations of aggregate time series in macroeconomies are usually smooth and sluggish. The use of time series methods should be considered as only the first stage of an empirical investigation of asymmetries. It is also essential to develop economic models of asymmetric behaviour and to employ tests of asymmetric adjustment at the level structural realtionship.