能源要素价格改革对宏观经济影响的CGE分析

当前国内要素价格改革呼声很高,其中能源价格改革更为迫切。本文利用MCHUGE模型,研究提高能源价格对中国经济发展的影响。研究表明,提高能源价格在短期和长期均能显著降低中国能源强度,其原因在于能源价格的提高优化了中国经济产业结构,第二产业尤其是重工业在国内生产总值中所占比重下降,减少了总体的能源消费。但是能源价格提高对宏观经济带来了较大的负面影响,其导致的出口下降和投资需求下降分别是短期和长期国内生产总值下降的主要原因。     

留置尿管引发泌尿道感染的原因分析与预防措施

总结并分析127例留置尿管的老年患者中28例患者引发泌尿道感染的原因。认为积极的预防、及时的治疗、严格的无菌操作和加强日常护理、治疗原发病是预防感染的有效措施。     

Information acquisition and welfare effect in a model of competitive financial markets

We analyze welfare effect of information acquisition for a model of competitive financial markets with diverse information and rational expectations. We show that in the fully revealing rational expectations equilibrium, each agent’s gain from trade in ex ante utility decreases as more agents become informed. An implication of the result is that market efficiency and ex ante Pareto optimality are not compatible in competitive financial markets with diverse information and rational expectations. Our result can be viewed as complementary to the Grossman paradox, which shows that market efficiency and individuals’ incentives to acquire information are not compatible. This paper is the first step in a projected exploration of welfare effect of information acquisition in models with diverse information.     

The cyclicality of bank regulation in a general economic framework

This article utilizes a representative agent model to address how the regulation policies for banks should respond to the general economic condition. With the consideration of a self-fulfilling deposit insurance facility with sufficient bank reserve to meet the expected need of liquidity shock, our model suggests a counter-cyclical capital adequacy requirement in a competitive loan market. The exception might occur when the moral hazard problem becomes very unwieldy and the representative individual is rather risk averse. With regard to the closure policy, we find that it is closely related to the individual’s degree of risk aversion. A counter-cyclical closure policy is recommended when the individual is highly risk averse. Otherwise, a pro-cyclical closure policy is preferred.     

Religious pluralism and religious participation: a median-based approach to the non-substantive problem

Sociologists of religion have long been interested in the interaction between religious pluralism and religious vitality. Previous empirical studies approach this theme by drawing on data of denominational participation rates across geographical units, investigating the property of association between the quantity of one minus the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (religious pluralism), and the total religious participation rate (religious vitality). However, this association could be theoretically spurious. Taking advantage of the median’s statistical property of being less sensitive to the variations of extreme values, this study proposes to apply the median instead of the arithmetic summation of religious participation rates to measure geographical-unit-level religious vitality. This method is illustrated by analyzing the New York State census of religion 1865 and the U.S. county survey 1990.     

中国社会创新的阶段性特征——基于“政府—市场—社会”三元框架的实证分析

社会创新已经成为全球社会发展中的热门概念,各国政府纷纷大力推动社会创新并将其纳入公共治理变革的重要内容。社会创新的主体界定、创新模式、扩散路径等成为理论界和实践界关注的焦点,但是大部分实证研究都是基于西方国家案例的讨论。近年来,社会创新实践在中国也风起云涌,文章基于"政府—市场—社会"的三元分析框架,通过多样本的统计分析来揭示中国社会创新的创新主体、创新领域、创新模式及环境影响因素等阶段性特征。研究发现,中国社会创新可能的阶段性特征是:主体以社会部门为主,政府、市场参与为辅,其机遇和空间来源于治理变革中的政府、资本化竞争的市场及发展中的公民社会分别在社会管理创新的策略驱动、企业社会责任的趋势引领和可持续性发展的需求带动下相互博弈的互动过程。在这一互动格局中,政府部门的监管政策对社会创新发展具有重要的影响。     

根植性悖论：产业集群生命周期诠释

如同产品生命周期,产业集群也有诞生、成长、成熟、衰退等周期性特征。根植性是研究产业集群演化的一个重要视角,在产业集群的不同发展阶段发挥着不同作用：在形成与发展阶段,地域根植、产业根植和知识根植正面影响产业集群;而在成熟与衰退阶段,三者转化为地域锁定、产业锁定和知识锁定,成为产业集群进一步演化升级的羁绊。     

以园区为载体的产业集群空间转移：模式比较与案例分析

集聚效应和产业关联性促进了产业集群的空间转移,而集群发展与园区建设的耦合关系进一步推动了集群转移进程。基于产业集群升级与产业集群空间转移的耦合关系,从价值链的角度对集群空间转移的两种典型模式进行了比较,并结合苏通科技产业园和苏宿工业园两个案例对转移模式进行了案例分析。研究表明,产业集群空间转移是成熟集群转型升级的重要路径之一,政府应该积极依托园区建设,结合地区特点及资源优势,采取恰当的产业集群转移模式,实现集群转移带动下的产业转型升级与地区协同发展。     

股票财富、信号传递与中国城镇居民消费

本文尝试在消费者最优选择模型基础上,通过引入居民的借贷约束和预防性储蓄,推导出能够检验股市的财富效应、信号传递效应和不对称效应的实证分析框架,并利用中国的季度数据考察中国股市变动对居民消费的影响。与国内相关文献所得结论不同,本文的研究表明:如果不仅考虑股票价格变动的财富效应,而且考虑其信号传递效应,那么中国股票市场对城镇居民消费存在着较为明显的影响。分析也表明,如果用工资而不是人均可支配收入度量人力资本回报,中国股票市场同样存在正的财富效应,且这种财富效应具有明显的不对称性,反映经济基本面变化的股价变动对中国居民消费具有长期影响,投机因素引起的股价变动对中国居民消费的影响甚微。     

论马克思主义经济学与经济学诸流派的沟通——以演化经济学为例

与经济学诸流派的沟通借鉴是发展马克思主义经济学的重要思路。在不同理论体系之间进行沟通借鉴的必要性、可行性以及沟通借鉴的"程度"如何把握,需要一个一般性的判断标准,其主要包括"不足点"、"借鉴点"、"切入点"和"转变程度"四个方面,忽略哪一个方面,抑或将其中的几个方面混为一谈,都可能导致有关沟通借鉴的研究陷入重重"迷雾"。反之,沿着"三点一度"的分析框架展开讨论,则有助于研究的层层推进。运用这一分析框架考察马克思主义经济学与演化经济学的沟通借鉴,不仅可以使其基本主张更为明晰化,而且有助于洞悉其未来发展的理论动向和需要克服的相关困难,并提供一些可供参考的原则性建议。