Development,distribution and the future

The distribution of world output between countries, and between social groups within countries, is central to long-term development prospects. Unequal shares mean unequal influence over the future direction of world affairs. The level and structure of demand are conditioned by the distribution of financial resources; while the power to influence the course of development is itself tied to the resources that can be marshalled in support of one's objectives. Two forecasting techniques, scenario construction and global modelling, are used to assess these relationships and explore the consequences of one possible ‘future history’ in which distribution worldwide does eventually begin to improve. Striking limitations to most development strategies are identified; without a wide-ranging set of changes, the prospects for improved distribution—and relief of poverty—are bleak.     

Explaining the Growth of Divorce in Great Britain

This paper tests whether the liberalisation of divorce law or economic factors can explain the post-war growth of divorce rates in Great Britain. Timing differences regarding the dates of legal innovations in England & Wales relative to Scotland are exploited to test for divorce law effects. No effect on marital dissolution of extending the grounds for the divorce can be detected, though other innovations in family law have had a powerful but generally temporary impact on divorce rates via their effect on transaction costs and settlement rules. Economic theory suggests that rising relative wages of women have reduced the gains from remaining married by inter alia diminishing the benefits of household specialisation and that rising real earnings of women have increased post divorce welfare by providing a measure of financial independence. The results are consistent with the real, but not the relative, wage hypothesis.     

The Future of Worker Representation – Edited by Geraldine Healy,Edmund Heery,Phil Taylor and William Brown

Books reviewed: The Future of Worker Representation edited by Geraldine Healy, Edmund Heery, Phil Taylor and William Brown. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, 2004, xvi + 325 pp., ISBN 1 4039 17590, £55.00.     

Scale and scope economies of Australian permanent building societies in a dynamic framework

In this paper we examine the interrelationship between technological change, branching, and the multi-product cost structure of Australian Permanent Building Societies within a dynamic specification of the cost function. The results strongly support this dynamic formulation, though the speed of adjustment of costs to long-run levels is quite fast. We also find evidence of economies of scale for small societies, suggesting some potential for smaller societies to benefit from increased scale through mergers.     

Arithmetic versus geometric mean estimators: Setting discount rates for capital budgeting

This paper addresses an issue central to the estimation of discount rates for capital budgeting: should the geometric mean or arithmetic mean of past data be used when estimating the discount rate? the use of the arithmetic mean ignores estimation error and serial correlation in returns. Unbiased discount factors have been derived that correct for both these effects. In all cases, the corrected discount rates are closer to the arithmetic than the geometric mean.     

New Business Development: A Challenge for Transformational Leadership

This article analyzes how the behavior of CEOs of major divisions of corporations who are successful at new business development differ in behavior from those who attempted new business development programs and failed. Successful top managers affected organization transformation via three major differences in leadership behavior. Successful CEOs inspired pervasive commitment throughout their division. They built confidence in their subordinates' ability to develop new business. Finally, they found ways of applying appropriate disciplines to the process, particularly in the ara of management of failure. Challenges for the HRM function in terms of orchestrating these CEO behaviors are discussed.     

Daily Closing Inside Spreads and Trading Volumes Around Earnings Announcements

This paper examines the determinants of inside spreads and their behaviour around corporate earning announcement dates, for a sample of UK firms over the period 1986–94. The paper finds that closing daily inside spreads are affected by order processing costs (proxied by trading volumes), inventory control costs (trading volumes and return variability) and asymmetric information (unusually high trading volumes). Inside spreads start to narrow 15 days before an earnings announcement, and narrow further by the end of the announcement day. We also identify a puzzling phenomenon. There is only a 'sluggish' recovery of spreads after the announcement: inside spreads continue to remain at relatively narrow levels, and take up to 90 days to recover to their pre–announcement width.     

IS FOREIGN TRADE (IM)PERFECTLY COMPETITIVE?: AN ANALYSIS OF THE GERMAN MARKET FOR BANANA IMPORTS

Many studies have been carried out that measure welfare effects of the newly adoped common policy on banana imports by the European Union. All these studies assume that foreign trade in bananas is characterised by perfectly competitive behaviour. However, if foreign trade in bananas is imperfectly competitive, then the welfare predictions about the common banana policy may turn out to be incorrect. It is necessary, therefore, to empirically estimate the degree of market imperfection in the banana market. In this paper, we estimate the degree of market imperfection in the German market for banana imports using a structural econometric model. Based on the bootstrap procedure, we reject the hypothesis that firms in this market behave perfectly competitively, but cannot reject the hypothesis that firms are engaged in Cournot-Nash behaviour.     

Restrictions on outward portfolio investment and domestic equity markets

Governments sometimes impose restrictions on local investors which effectively prevent them from purchasing overseas equities. Reasons for doing this, from the government's point of view, would include increasing the availability of risk capital to local companies and lowering its costs. The paper analyses this argument in terms of modern portfolio theory. It is shown that, under certain circumstances, domestic equities and overseas equities may be complements rather than substitutes. In this case the effect of the restrictions would be to lower prices on the domestic stock exchange and to raise the cost of risk capital to local companies. Indications are given of the circumstances in which this effect is likely to occur. Policy makers who are not aware of the risk-spreading motives which underly much international portfolio investment in equities are likely to overstimate the benefits to local industry from forcing local equity investors to keep their funds at home.