Food transfers to Asia: A Delphi forecast of required levels

The authors obtained the views of a number of agricultural economists on the desirability and feasibility of future food transfers from rich to poor countries. The consensus view which emerged was that food aid will still be needed in the 1980s but that practical institutional arrangements for it are more likely to come from the political than the economic arena.     

On the optimal taxation of two person households

This paper generalises the optimal commodity tax formulae for households containing one person to cover the empirically relevant case of two person households. We provide an appropriate framework for the empirical estimation of the optimal tax structure and argue that this may be largely determined by female labour supply behaviour.     

Preparing for evil

How can you plan for every crisis that might occur, even for ones you can't imagine? The task seems so daunting and so limitless that many firms don't even start. In fact, as the authors' 20 years of research shows, three out of four Fortune 500 companies are prepared to handle only the types of calamities they've already suffered, and not even all of those. That's unfortunate because the research also shows that crisis-prepared companies fare better financially, have stronger reputations, and ultimately stay in business longer than their crisis prone counterparts. Crisis-prepared companies use a systematic approach to focus their efforts. In addition to planning for natural disasters, they divide man-made calamities into two sorts--accidental or "normal" ones, like the Exxon Valdez oil spill, and deliberate or "abnormal" ones, like product tampering. Then they take steps to broaden their thinking about such potential crises. They consider threats that would be common in other industries, for instance. And they seek input from outsiders such as investigative journalists and even reformed criminals. But if these companies think broadly about possible threats, they think narrowly about implementation. Each year, smart companies focus their resources and attention on a few facilities picked at random, just as airlines conduct detailed security checks on just a few passengers for each flight. That reduces the probability of an attack on the entire organization even as it allows the business to migrate steadily to a higher level of crisis readiness. Crisis-prepared companies know that disasters cannot be managed through cost-benefit analyses. It is precisely because the effects of a disaster cannot be predicted or controlled that smart companies focus their efforts on preventing crises rather than containing them after the fact.     

Economic, Demographic, and Institutional Determinants of Life Insurance Consumption across Countries

Life insurance has become an increasingly important part ofthe financial sector over the past 40 years, providing a rangeof financial services for consumers and becoming a major sourceof investment in the capital market. But what drives the largevariation in life insurance consumption across countries remainsunclear. Using a panel with data aggregated at different frequenciesfor 68 economies in 1961–2000, this article finds thateconomic indicators—such as inflation, income per capita,and banking sector development—and religious and institutionalindicators are the most robust predictors of the use of lifeinsurance. Education, life expectancy, the young dependencyratio, and the size of the social security system appear tohave no robust association with life insurance consumption.The results highlight the importance of price stability andbanking sector development in fully realizing the savings andinvestment functions of life insurance in an economy.     

Profitability and supply price in the US domestic oil industry: implications for the political economy of oil in the twenty-first century

In May 2001, the US Government's National Energy Policy DevelopmentGroup proposed to increase investment in domestic oil resourcesand to diversify further the sourcing of US oil imports by increasingproduction in new petroleum provinces. The paper argues thatboth strands of this policy are dependent upon a third, unstated,objective—to ensure that OPEC retains sufficient marketpower to prevent the sort of collapse in world oil prices thatoccurred in 1998–99. The consequences of that collapse,when the real price of US oil fell to its lowest level in 53years, are explored. Finally, it is argued that the outcomeof the crisis was a rapprochement between OPEC and the US. Itis suggested that the consensus between the US and OPEC as tothe desired range within which the world oil price should moveis likely to survive any temporary political disturbances.     

How Large are the Welfare Gains from Technological Innovation Induced by Environmental Policies?

This paper examines whether the welfare gains from technological innovation that reduces future abatement costs are larger or smaller than the Pigouvian welfare gains from optimal pollution control. The relative welfare gains from innovation depend on three key factors—the initially optimal level of abatement, the speed at which innovation reduces future abatement costs, and the discount rate. We calculate the welfare gains from innovation under a variety of different scenarios. Mostly they are less than the Pigouvian welfare gains. To be greater, innovation must reduce abatement costs substantially and quickly and the initially optimal abatement level must be fairly modest.     

Valuation of synthetic CDOs

In this paper, we consider the valuation of a synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO), a pool of underlying credit risky securities, “partitioned” into several tranches, each of which absorbs losses in accordance with its size and seniority. We derive a closed-form solution for credit spreads of the tranches of homogeneous pools and find an approximation for the credit spreads of inhomogeneous pools. The method leads to an accurate estimation of the credit spreads of synthetic CDOs and can be used in risk management applications.     

Introduction: Globalization and the Workplace in Pacific Asia

Hong Kong's economic successes are evident. As ever, the interpretation of this phenomenon at the level of politics, culture, human capital and business organization is less obvious, though a familiar list of the ‘usual suspects’ of ‘explanations’ has emerged. Hong Kong now faces new and renewed challenges which are linked to shifts in the industrial structure, emerging market demands and the interconnected upgrading of both production and human resources, in addition to the implications of reunification. Key themes of national competitiveness, deindustrialization and the upgrading of production facilities and human resources are all shown to be important, but also multi-layered and hazy concepts.     

A Hong Kong view of offensive advertising

Considerable research has been conducted on offensive advertising in Western countries. However, not much is known about consumers' views of offensive advertising in an Asian context. This research, which was conducted in Hong Kong, aimed at identifying what product/service advertisements consumers find offensive, what executional styles consumers find offensive, consumers' tolerance of offensive advertisements in different media and the effects of offensive advertisements on consumers' purchase intentions. The results from a survey of 200 consumers showed that chat-line services and funeral services were considered the most offensive products or services to be advertised. When looking at the manner of advertising, sexist themes, indecent language and nudity were found to be the major reasons for the respondents finding advertisements offensive. In general, direct mail was considered to be a medium that prompts lower tolerance by consumers to potentially offensive advertisements while men and women's magazines were considered to be media that prompt higher tolerance to potentially offensive advertisements. Finally, it was found that levels of advertising offensiveness had an effect on purchase intentions.