A simple and efficient method for estimating the magnitude and precision of welfare changes: comment

A recent article (Breslaw and Smith, 1995 ) published in this journal provided an iterative numerical technique for computing the welfare effects of price changes. In this note we take issue with the application used to demonstrate this technique. In particular, we show that the demands used are inappropriate and that the authors incorrectly interpret the precision of the estimates of welfare change. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Australian money supply analysis: The relationship between the monetary base,secondary reserves and the money supply

Utilising the criteria of predictability, stability over time, and instrument stability this paper examines the relationship between the reserve base and the money supply in Australia. Various modifications to the money supply function are made to incorporate the influence of direct monetary controls, of the overdraft lending system, and of the increased substitutability of government securities for high powered money arising from the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy of pegging government security yields. Doubt is cast on the ability of the Australian authorities to control the primary monetary aggregates on a short-run basis.     

On the distance between cross-impact models: A set of metric measures for cross-impact analysis

This paper attempts to add to the Leibnizian or mathematical side of Technological Forecasting. Given two distinct cross impact models, the paper shows that there exists a set of appropriate metric measures such that the distance between any two cross impact models can be determined. That is, it is possible to say how close or how far apart two or more cross impact models are to one another. It is argued that the ability to make such determinations is vital to the formal and mathematical development and growth of Technological Forecasting.     

UTILITARIAN AND RIGHTS-BASED ALTERNATIVES FOR PROTECTING SITES OF SPECIAL SCIENTIFIC INTEREST

Current legislation in Great Britain has set up a class of protected land under the designation Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI). However, what values are to be protected, and how, are questions largely left unanswered. Areas which are designated as worthy of protection can still be threatened by gradual erosion due to rural development. The designation of a site as being of conservation value requires an agency which enforces protection from development. We highlight the conflicts which have arisen between landowners and conservationists over SSSI management and analyse the role of a conservation agency under alternative environmental philosophies. We show how the values underlying the motive for conservation will affect the environmental management process chosen. This provides contrasting views as to the future for countryside management, and focuses concern on the current trend towards the free market in which trade-offs based upon the anthropocentric usefulness of nature are fundamental.     

Development,distribution and the future

The distribution of world output between countries, and between social groups within countries, is central to long-term development prospects. Unequal shares mean unequal influence over the future direction of world affairs. The level and structure of demand are conditioned by the distribution of financial resources; while the power to influence the course of development is itself tied to the resources that can be marshalled in support of one's objectives. Two forecasting techniques, scenario construction and global modelling, are used to assess these relationships and explore the consequences of one possible ‘future history’ in which distribution worldwide does eventually begin to improve. Striking limitations to most development strategies are identified; without a wide-ranging set of changes, the prospects for improved distribution—and relief of poverty—are bleak.