The development of technology foresight: A review

The term “foresight” has long been used to describe readiness to deal with long-term issues (especially on the part of governments). This term “Technology Foresight” took off in the 1990s, as European, and then other, countries sought new policy tools to deal with problems in their science, technology and innovation systems. Large-scale exercises drew in numerous stakeholders as sources of knowledge and influence, and the prominence of these exercises led to “foresight” being used much more widely to describe futures activities of many kinds. While few new tools and techniques have been developed in these exercises, they represent an unprecedented diffusion of forecasting, planning and participatory approaches to long-term issues. Futures approaches are, in consequence, far more officially acceptable and legitimate than in the past.     

Housing Subsidies and Work Incentives in Great Britain

The relationship between housing costs, wages and transfer programmes is complex yet helps determine the incentive to work for individuals in low income or high housing cost households. We estimate a static discrete choice labour supply model that allows for housing benefit programme participation, using samples of married women and unmarried women drawn from Great Britain Family Resources Surveys 1994/5–97/8. We find women are quite responsive to labour supply incentives and that housing benefit income has similar incentive effects to earned income which suggests any 'stigma' is small. Our analysis is complemented by simulating housing benefit and direct rent subsidy reforms.     

Housing market dynamics and macroprudential policies

In this paper, we analyze the implications of macroprudential and monetary policies for credit cycles, housing market stability and spillovers to consumption. We consider a countercyclical loan‐to‐value (LTV) policy that responds to a credit‐to‐income ratio, and we compare its effectiveness with a permanent tightening of the LTV ratio and a monetary policy rule that responds to credit. To this end, we construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with housing market, household debt and collateral constraints, and we estimate it with Canadian data using Bayesian methods. Our study suggests that a countercyclical LTV ratio is a useful policy to reduce spillovers from the housing market into consumption and to lean against housing market boom–bust cycles. It performs better than the permanent tightening of the LTV ratio—a policy that has been used in a number of countries—and the monetary policy rule, both in terms of the stabilization of household indebtedness and spillovers into consumption. Monetary policy that leans against the wind is the least desirable due to its large adverse consequences on the real economy.     

New Labour, energy policy and 'competitive markets'

By the end of New Labour's first term four central objectivesof energy policy had become established: ‘cheap’energy, the relief of fuel poverty, a major reduction of carbondioxide emissions, and energy security through maintaining awide diversity of primary fuel supplies, all to be achievedthrough ‘competition’. After surveying New Labourenergy policy documents, the paper argues that New Labour failedto appreciate (i) the extent to which, under such a laissezfaire policy regime, these objectives were mutually inconsistent;(ii) that the apparent successes of energy market liberalisationduring the preceding Conservative Governments had little todo with ‘competition’; and (iii) that the transactioncosts of injecting increasing ‘competition’ intoboth British and European energy systems are likely to exacerbatethe growing threat to energy security. The paper concludes witha brief examination of the implications of transaction costeconomics for the organisational structure of the UK energysupply industry.     

Accountability,maps and inter-generational equity: evaluating the Nigerian oil spill monitor

The Oil Spill Monitor (OSM) is an innovative public sector accounting system intended to improve the regulation of oil pollution in the Niger Delta through greater transparency and stakeholders’ engagement. The Nigerian OSM, an online accounting and geographic information system, was set up by non-governmental organizations before becoming part of the regulator’s accountability system. Problems with data quality, regulatory enforcement and remediating practices meant that improved accountability and stakeholder engagement were necessary but not sufficient in this case.     

Fair trade certification as oversight: an analysis of fair trade international and the small producers' symbol

In this article we analyse Fair Trade as a form of non-state regulation, building on the literature on the internal politics and governance of Fair Trade International (FTI) certification. We focus on recent developments in the FTI certification system, including the split of Fair Trade USA from FTI and the emergence of the Small Producer's Symbol (SPP) as an alternative to FTI certification. We highlight the role of the three regional Producer Networks, in particular the Latin American Producer Network, the CLAC, in the politics and governance of the FTI system. In order to analyse these issues we employ an alternative reading of Karl Polanyi's work in relation to Fair Trade. We problematise the claim made by some in the literature that FTI certification is an example of Polanyi's concept of re-embedding. Instead, we draw on Polanyi's concept of oversight to analyse Fair Trade certification. We argue that the emergence of the SPP out of the CLAC shows promise for being a mechanism of oversight more reflective of Polanyian re-embedding than FTI certification. We also emphasise how the growth of the SPP and the pressure from the Producer Networks have prompted governance reform within the FTI system.     

Beyond implicit prices: recovering theoretically consistent and transferable values for noise avoidance from a hedonic property price model

Using a two-stage hedonic pricing methodology we estimate a system of structural demand equations for different sources of transport-related noise. In the first stage, we identify market segments using model-based clustering techniques and estimate separate hedonic price functions (HPFs) for each segment. In so doing, we show how a semiparametric spatial smoothing estimator outperforms other standard specifications of the HPF. In the second stage, we control for non-linearity of the budget constraint and identify demand relationships using techniques that account for problems of endogeneity and censoring of the dependent variable. Our estimated demand functions provide welfare estimates for peace and quiet that we believe to be the first derived from property market data in a theoretically consistent manner.