IF WE CONFESS OUR SINS

I consider a scenario where a social planner suspects that a crime has been committed. There are many suspects and at most one of them is guilty. I characterize the optimal mechanism for the social planner under different assumptions with respect to her commitment power. I find that the optimal mechanism is a “confession inducing mechanism”: Before an investigation, each agent can confess to being guilty in exchange for a reduced punishment. I find that these mechanisms do better than the traditional trial mechanism because of information externalities: When an agent credibly confesses his guilt, he reveals everyone else's innocence.     

Forecasting UK consumer price inflation using inflation forecasts

The inflation rate is a key economic indicator for which forecasters are constantly seeking to improve the accuracy of predictions, so as to enable better macroeconomic decision making. Presented in this paper is a novel approach which seeks to exploit auxiliary information contained within inflation forecasts for developing a new and improved forecast for inflation by modeling with Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA). Unlike other forecast combination techniques, the key feature of the proposed approach is its use of forecasts, i.e. data into the future, within the modeling process and extracting auxiliary information for generating a new and improved forecast. We consider real data on consumer price inflation in UK, obtained via the Office for National Statistics. A variety of parametric and nonparametric models are then used to generate univariate forecasts of inflation. Thereafter, the best univariate forecast is considered as auxiliary information within the MSSA model alongside historical data for UK consumer price inflation, and a new multivariate forecast is generated. We find compelling evidence which shows the benefits of the proposed approach at generating more accurate medium to long term inflation forecasts for UK in relation to the competing models. Finally, through the discussion, we also consider Google Trends forecasts for inflation within the proposed framework.     

Taking services to foreign markets: A taxonomy of Brazilian service firms

This study develops a taxonomy of international service firms from an emerging market, Brazil, and assesses whether there are significant differences in international performance between the groups. After an extensive literature review, a survey was carried out with a sample of international service firms located in an emerging economy, Brazil. Using as a departure point two theoretical perspectives, the internationalization process theory and industrial organization theory, in addition to service dimensions extracted from the empirical service management literature, the study identifies four groups—large traditionals, generalist neophytes, solitary traditionals, and daring differentiators—based on firm characteristics, international services delivered, internationalization process characteristics, and international strategies adopted. The findings suggest that there are significant differences in performance between the groups.     

Urban density and pupil attainment

We explore the association between urban density and pupil attainment using three cohorts of pupils in schooling in England. Although—as widely recognised—attainment in dense urban places is low on average, this is not because urban environments disadvantage pupils, but because the most disadvantaged pupils with low average attainments attend the most urbanised schools. To control for this, we exploit changes in urban density faced by pupils during compulsory transition from Primary to Secondary school, and measure educational progress at the end of the Secondary phase, relative to attainment at the end of Primary schooling. Our results suggest that there are small but significant benefits from education in schools in more densely urbanised settings. We detect this density advantage even amongst pupils moving relatively short distances between Primary and Secondary schools within urban areas, so we cannot attribute it to broad urbanisation effects experienced by pupils making rural–urban school moves. A more likely explanation lies in greater school choice and competition between closely co-located educational providers.     

Maximum entropy: a stochastic frontier approach for electricity distribution regulation

The literature on incentive-based regulation in the electricity sector indicates that the size of this sector in a country constrains the choice of frontier methods as well as the model specification itself to measure economic efficiency of regulated firms. The aim of this study is to propose a stochastic frontier approach with maximum entropy estimation, which is designed to extract information from limited and noisy data with minimal statements on the data generation process. Stochastic frontier analysis with generalized maximum entropy and data envelopment analysis—the latter one has been widely used by national regulators—are applied to a cross-section data on thirteen European electricity distribution companies. Technical efficiency scores and rankings of the distribution companies generated by both approaches are sensitive to model specification. Nevertheless, the stochastic frontier analysis with generalized maximum entropy results indicate that technical efficiency scores have similar distributional properties and these scores as well as the rankings of the companies are not very sensitive to the prior information. In general, the same electricity distribution companies are found to be in the highest and lowest efficient groups, reflecting weak sensitivity to the prior information considered in the estimation procedure.

     

The ‘disguised’ foreign investor: Brands,trademarks and the British expatriate entrepreneur in Brazil

Abstract

This article examines the impact of the British expatriate entrepreneur, and his processes of knowledge transfer, on the industrialization and economic development of Brazil between 1875 and 1914. It focuses on the textiles industry, and combines original trademark data with conventional trade and investment statistics, and also case study analysis about firms and their entrepreneurs. It argues that British investment in Brazil was higher and had a deeper impact on economic development than considered by existing research, as expatriate entrepreneurs ‘disguised’ a substantial amount of foreign investments by acting as shareholders and top managers of newly established local businesses.     

Cost-effectiveness of omalizumab add-on to standard-of-care therapy in patients with uncontrolled severe allergic asthma in a Brazilian healthcare setting

Objective: Omalizumab add-on to standard-of-care therapy has proven to be efficacious in severe asthma patients for whom exacerbations cannot be controlled otherwise. Moreover, evidence from different healthcare settings suggests reduced healthcare resource utilization with omalizumab. Based on these findings, this study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of the addition of omalizumab to standard-of-care therapy in patients with uncontrolled severe allergic asthma in a Brazilian healthcare setting.

Methods: A previously published Markov model was adapted using Brazil-specific unit costs to compare the costs and outcomes of the addition of omalizumab to standard-of-care therapy vs standard-of-care therapy alone. Model inputs were largely based on the eXpeRience study. Costs and health outcomes were calculated for lifetime-years and were annually discounted at 5%. Both one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

Results: An additional cost of R$280,400 for 5.20 additional quality-adjusted life-years was estimated with the addition of omalizumab to standard-of-care therapy, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of R$53,890. One-way sensitivity analysis indicated that discount rates, standard-of-care therapy exacerbation rates, and exacerbation-related mortality rates had the largest impact on incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

Limitations: Assumptions of lifetime treatment adherence and rate of future exacerbations, independent of previous events, might affect the findings. The lack of Brazilian patients in the eXpeRience study may affect the findings, although sample size and baseline characteristics suggest that the modeled population closely resembles Brazilian severe allergic asthma patients.

Conclusion: Results indicate that omalizumab as an add-on therapy is more cost-effective than standard-of-care therapy alone for Brazilian patients with uncontrolled severe allergic asthma, based on the World Health Organization’s cost-effectiveness threshold of up to 3-times the gross domestic product.     

Perceived benefits of loyalty programs: Scale development and implications for relational strategies

Positive outcomes of loyalty programs are clear for firms, yet little research examines customer perceptions. To address this gap, this article investigates various perceived benefits of loyalty programs using a multi-benefit framework based on utilitarian, hedonic, and relationship literature. Two quantitative studies, involving 658 French members of loyalty programs, provide a 16-item scale that measures five types of perceived benefits: monetary savings, exploration, entertainment, recognition, and social benefits. The five dimensions have different impacts on satisfaction with the program, loyalty to the program, and perceived relationship investment of the firm. This article offers a discussion of the theoretical and managerial implications of these findings for relationship marketing strategies.     

The development of new higher education courses

The main objective of this study was to present a proposal for a model explaining the construction of a new higher education course to be offered to the market. Having quite a limited theoretical basis and with few investigations dealing with innovation in educational services, a case study was made to help in construction of the model. The case study, supported by studies found and adaptation of innovation in services to the educational sector, made construction of the model possible, and this is divided in three stages: antecedents, development, and implementation of the new higher education course. The proposed model can be useful for managers of higher education institutes when they decide to put new courses on the market. As for the academic field, the study presented attempts to clarify the phenomenon, as well as showing the need for further research into the subject.