The effect of the Uruguay round on the intensive and extensive margins of trade

Do tariffs inhibit trade flows by limiting the entry of exporters (‘firm extensive margin’) or by restricting the average volume exported by each firm (‘firm intensive margin’)? Using a gravity equation approach, we analyze how the decrease in tariffs promoted during the 90s by the Uruguay Round multilateral trade agreement affected the trade margins of French firms for 57 sectors and 147 countries from 1993 to 2002. Our main contribution is to estimate the elasticity of trade on both margins, controlling for the unobserved heterogeneity of trade flows thanks to a three-dimensional panel and to time-varying tariffs as a measure of variable trade costs. Our results show that the number of firms exporting in a given sector to a given destination is related to the level of tariffs. But they also show that the decrease in tariffs induced by the implementation of the Uruguay Round did not lead more firms to export and that it only induced incumbent exporters to increase their shipments. We control for two problems that may affect our basic specification: tariff changes may be endogenous and zero flows are not included. Our results are confirmed — even when the extensive margin is significant, its magnitude is very small.     

What are you?: pragmatic,self-confident, #hashtag or a vital senior? Using marketing to curb alcoholism and encourage healthy consumption!

From a public administration approach, alcohol consumption is responsible for 3.8% of overall mortality. From a private approach, companies in the alcohol industry are faced with increasing competition, which forces them to focus their business more while promoting responsible consumption.

In this scene, an empirical investigation was carried out to determine the individual and environmental factors with most impact on alcohol consumption in the Spanish market. 1031 valid responses were obtained. Using multivariate techniques, four different consumer groups of highly alcoholic vs. slightly alcoholic beverages were identified: Pragmatic group; Self-confident group; #hashtag group and Vital Seniors group. Based on the variables (individual and environmental) that significantly define each cluster, two groups of managerial implications were stated: (i) four to recommend private managers how to reach each cluster of alcohol consumers; (ii) three to recommend public authorities how to deal with the most problematic areas (curb alcoholism & encourage healthy consumption).     

Die Wirkung „guter“ Argumente

Starting from a discursive perspective on public communication, we ask whether the deliberative quality of journalistic articles on policy topics influences the amount of user participation on news websites. The theory of deliberative democracy often serves as a source of normatively desirable discursive requirements. Here, however, we present empirically verifiable assumptions that we combine with explanations about media content from the spiral of silence theory and explanations of user behavior from the civic voluntarism model and the construct of self-efficacy. The spiral of silence theory assumes that people do not express their opinions in public when they feel their opinions belong to the minority, because they fear to be socially isolated. The media play a crucial role in this process, as their depiction of public discourses influences the perception of public opinion. Furthermore, the theory assumes that mass media form a media tenor, presenting similar representations of opinion distributions. In online contexts, we argue, we can no longer expect to observe a single media tenor, but we must define more individually perceived, selection-based media tenors. Thus, users are only to be expected to fear isolation in cases where a majority opinion is presented in online contents they selected which stand against their opinions. Based on the civic voluntarism model and previous literature, we understand writing comments as a form of participation that is most likely to be carried out by persons who are interested in politics, have a high level of self-efficacy and feel stimulated to participate by the immediate environment, i.?e., the journalistic article and the comment section.We therefore assume that the more representatives of the opposition, civil society and ordinary citizens are presented in the media, the more users will participate in the comment section (H1). Furthermore, we also expect articles containing conflicting and counterarguing utterances to lead to more participants than articles without this kind of utterances (H2). Regarding the rationality of the discourse, we suppose that the presence of justifications of arguments also increases users’ participation (H3). Articles often report on current debates that aim to lead to a decision. Considering self-efficacy assumptions and the relatability of a debate for the users, we assume that participation rates will be higher when decisions are discussed that lie in the future (H4a), whereas decisions that have already been taken are expected to reduce participation rates (H4b). Furthermore, we also expect articles with a reference to German domestic politics to attract higher participation rates (H5).In order to test our hypotheses, we conducted a content analysis of 400 online newspaper articles. We selected two national (WELT Online and ZEIT Online) and two regional (Rheinische Post Online and Tagesspiegel Online) online newspaper outlets, one of each belonging to the left-wing liberal and one to the conservative journalism spectrum. From the politics news feeds of the four online newspaper outlets between January 1, and March 31, 2016, we selected a systematic random sample of articles with enabled comment sections. The deliberative criteria were measured either on the level of a value-based utterance made by a representative of the government, the opposition, civil society or an ordinary citizen or on the level of the news article. Utterance-based criteria were then aggregated to the news article level. Furthermore, we measured the number of users that participated in the discussion in the comment section. We then estimated a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model in order to predict the number of participating users.Results show that the majority of deliberative criteria serve to increase the amount of user participation. The more opposition politicians are cited in a news article, the more users participate in the comment section which hints to the conclusion that discursive equality triggers participation. Regarding the reciprocity of discourses, conflicting and counterarguing utterances also increase the number of users who participate in a discussion. Another explanation of a higher number of commentators is the presence of justified arguments, i.?e., when the discourse can be classified as rational. While future decisions did not show any effect on user participation, past decisions in fact reduced the amount of participation. Furthermore, if the topic was related to domestic German politics, participation rates also increased, which represents relatability for people’s lives.All in all, we conclude that discourse-related criteria should be integrated more often into the analysis of the conditions of user participation, as they can add to explaining when people feel motivated to write comments. They are connected to considerations about opinion climates both as depicted by the journalistic article and as present in the comment section itself as discussed in the spiral of silence theory. The more opinions journalists present in an article and the better the underlying discourse, the more we can expect users to participate in the discussion. We have also seen that articles on decisions that have already been taken are not as frequently commented on, and that a relation to domestic topics leads to a more active participation. Taken together, we argue that user comments can be a meaningful addition to deliberation research, because they can serve as a measure of the effects of deliberative content, e.?g., in the news.This study focused on the contents of the journalistic articles, while the contents of user comments were not integrated into the analysis. In future studies, this gap should be closed with content analyses of user comments. Furthermore, the assumptions we made about users’ motivations and behavior also need to be confirmed in experimental designs and surveys.     

The decision‐making process in viral marketing—A review and suggestions for further research

Viral marketing is used to widely distribute content. To achieve this goal, the basic decision‐making process from content reception to interaction must be clarified. This paper examines the decision‐making process of individuals in viral marketing using a new dynamic model. In addition, this work reviews the existing literature on viral marketing and structures to identify existing issues for further research. The decision‐making process is basically divided into two stages. In the first decision stage, individuals decide whether content should be considered. When individuals agree to view the content, they decide in the second stage whether they want to interact with it. These two decisions are influenced by three factors: the framework conditions, content, and interaction aims. With the help of the decision model, this paper summarizes the most important findings from viral marketing research over the last 20 years. In addition, this work provides new opportunities for further research in the field of viral marketing.     

On general periodic time-varying bilinear processes

We study in this note the class of bilinear processes with periodic time-varying coefficients. We give necessary and sufficient conditions ensuring the existence of strict and second order stationary solutions (in periodic sense) and for the existence of higher order moments. The given conditions can be applied to periodic ARMA or periodic GARCH models. The central limit theorem and the law of iterated logarithm (LIL) for higher order sample moments are showed.     

INNOVATION AND INEQUALITY IN A SMALL WORLD

We present a multicountry theory of economic growth and R&D-driven technological progress in which countries are connected by a network of knowledge exchange. Technological progress in any country depends on the state of technology in the countries it exchanges knowledge with. The diffusion of knowledge throughout the world explains a period of increasing world inequality, followed by decreasing relative inequality. Knowledge diffusion through a small world network produces an extraordinary diversity of country growth performances, including the overtaking of individual countries and the replacement of the technologically leading country in the course of world development.     

The Green Paradox and the importance of endogenous resource exploration

It has been proposed that climate policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel use may actually worsen the problem of global warming. Such a Green Paradox could occur if fossil fuel resource owners exploit their resources more rapidly due to the expectation of stricter climate policies in the future. This article shows that the emergence of the Green Paradox is less plausible if exploration activities are taken into account. An extraction model that incorporates exploration investments finds that an increasing cash flow tax is effective in dealing with climate change depending upon the specific formulation of the tax scheme. For example, the higher the initial tax level, the more effective is the tax scheme in mitigating climate change and hence a Green Paradox can be avoided. A very low growth rate is also beneficial for the climate as it leads to a small temporal redistribution of extraction to earlier periods. A very high growth rate leads to faster extraction; however, it also coincides with a significant decrease in total emissions that is inconsistent with a Green Paradox.     

Determinants of loyalty and recommendation: The role of perceived service quality,emotional satisfaction and image

This study develops and tests a model for the determinants of loyalty and recommendation. The model considers three drivers – perceived service quality, emotional satisfaction and image – that are positively related to each other and positively influence loyalty and recommendation. The model is tested using data from a survey of 222 Tunisian bank service customers. The hypotheses, which were tested using structural equation modelling, are all supported. The results confirm that perceived service quality, emotional satisfaction and image are key drivers of loyalty and recommendation. The research emphasizes the role of emotional satisfaction and image as mediating variables between perceived service quality and loyalty/recommendation. The study also shows that a better understanding of the determinants of behavioural intentions in the banking industry occurs when affective dimensions are considered along with cognitive ones.     

Improving the Decision Making Process in the Design Project by Capitalizing on Company’s Crucial Knowledge

In this paper, we propose a method to locate the companys crucial knowledge for improving the quality of decision making in a design project. It comprises of a preliminary survey regarding the approach that has been carried out at automotive company for identifying the crucial knowledge, aiming at choosing and justifying the necessary investment to capitalize on the knowledge. This method will then be used as basis for a dialogue between the stakeholders involved in the identification of the crucial knowledge developed and/or used in a design project.