Modified efficient importance sampling for partially non‐Gaussian state space models

The construction of an importance density for partially non‐Gaussian state space models is crucial when simulation methods are used for likelihood evaluation, signal extraction, and forecasting. The method of efficient importance sampling is successful in this respect, but we show that it can be implemented in a computationally more efficient manner using standard Kalman filter and smoothing methods. Efficient importance sampling is generally applicable for a wide range of models, but it is typically a custom‐built procedure. For the class of partially non‐Gaussian state space models, we present a general method for efficient importance sampling. Our novel method makes the efficient importance sampling methodology more accessible because it does not require the computation of a (possibly) complicated density kernel that needs to be tracked for each time period. The new method is illustrated for a stochastic volatility model with a Student's t distribution.     

How interethnic marriages affect the educational attainment of children: Evidence from a natural experiment

The allocation of Moluccan immigrants across towns and villages at arrival in the Netherlands and the subsequent formation of interethnic marriages resemble a natural experiment. The exogenous variation in marriage formation allows us to estimate the causal effect of interethnic marriages on the educational attainment of children from such marriages. We find that children from Moluccan fathers and native mothers have a higher educational attainment than children from ethnic homogeneous Moluccan couples or children from a Moluccan mother and a native father.     

What makes a good conference? Analysing the preferences of labour economists

Conferences are an important element in the work of researchers, requiring substantial investments in fees, travel expenses and the time spent by the participants. The aim of this paper is to identify the preferences of participants with respect to conference characteristics. Based on a sample of European labour economists, preferences are measured using the vignette approach where participants are asked to choose between hypothetical European Association of Labour Economists (EALE) conferences. We find that the keynote speakers are the most important element in the preference for a conference, followed by the location of the conference. There is substantial heterogeneity in the taste of labour economists especially with respect to location, though the link between preference parameters and measured characteristics like gender, age and seniority is limited. Factor analysis suggests that the variety in preferences can be best described by a latent variable that reflects the weights people put on content versus fun.     

Critical success factors for managing purchasing groups

In this article, we identify critical success factors for managing small and intensive purchasing groups by comparing successful and unsuccessful purchasing groups in a large-scale survey. The analysis of our data set suggests the following success factors: no enforced participation, sufficient total contribution of efforts, all members contribute with knowledge, continuity in member representation, communication, and fair allocation of savings. The findings suggest among other things that it is important that after a voluntary decision has been taken to cooperate, the members need to show that they are committed. Other factors such as interorganisational trust and formal structures are important when establishing interorganisational cooperation, but should otherwise be considered as necessary yet not sufficient in the management phase of a successful purchasing group.     

Prospect Theory in the Heterogeneous Agent Model

Using the Heterogeneous Agent Model framework, we incorporate an extension based on Prospect Theory into a popular agent-based asset pricing model. This extension covers the phenomenon of loss aversion manifested in risk aversion and asymmetric treatment of gains and losses. Using Monte Carlo methods, we investigate behavior and statistical properties of the extended model and assess how our extension is manifested in different strategies. We show that, on the one hand, the Prospect Theory extension keeps the essential underlying mechanics of the model intact, but on the other hand it considerably changes the model dynamics. Stability of the model is increased and fundamentalists may be able to survive in the market more easily. When only the fundamentalists are loss-averse, other strategies profit more.

     

Why Sweden's pension reform was able to be successfully implemented

Governments that do not reform pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension systems will eventually face a pension crisis. In a democracy, reforms require majority support. The problem is that pension reform requires today's generation to bear the burden to avoid burdening tomorrow's generation. Sweden recently passed pension legislation that specifies a gradual transition from a public defined-benefit plan to a defined contribution plan. Why was Sweden successful in reforming its pension system? We find that a political economy perspective helps to answer this question: there are more winners who would vote in favour of the reform than non-winners who would vote against it. When comparing the net effect (present value of expected benefits minus present value of remaining contributions) of the new and old systems, contributions of the working generation (age < 53) are reduced by more than their expected benefits.     

Retaining a diverse workforce: the impact of gender‐focused human resource management

Demography theory suggests that high gender diversity leads to high turnover. As turnover is costly, we tested the following: a main effect prediction derived from demography theory, and a moderating effect prediction derived from the relational framework. Data on 198 publicly listed organisations were collected through a human resources decision‐maker survey and archival databases. The results indicate that higher gender diversity leads to lower turnover in organisations with many gender‐focused policies and practices. Findings suggest that organisations can lower their turnover rates by increasing their gender diversity and by implementing gender‐focused policies and practices.     

Product Unbundling in the Travel Industry: The Economics of Airline Bag Fees

This paper provides theory and evidence on airline bag fees, offering insights into a real‐world case of product unbundling. The theory predicts that an airline's fares should fall when it introduces a bag fee, but that the full‐trip price (the bag fee plus the new fare) could either rise or fall. The empirical evidence presented in the paper provides strong confirmation of the first prediction. The data also suggest that the average fare falls by less than the bag fee itself so that the full price of a trip rises for passengers who choose to check bags.     

The impact of referendums on the centralisation of public goods provision: a political economy approach

The paper compares decision-making on the centralisation of public goods provision in the presence of regional externalities under representative and direct democratic institutions. A model with two regions, two public goods and regional spillovers is developed in which uncertainty over the true preferences of candidates makes strategic delegation impossible. The political economy argument against centralisation of Besley and Coate (J Public Econ 87:2611–2637, 2003) does therefore not apply. Instead, it is shown that the existence of rent extraction by delegates alone suffices to make cooperative centralisation more likely through representative democracy under reasonable assumptions. In the case of non-cooperative centralisation, the more extensive possibilities for institutional design under representative democracy increase the likelihood of centralisation. Direct democracy may thus be interpreted as a federalism-preserving institution.     

A Cramér-type large deviation theorem for sums of functions of higher order non-overlapping spacings

Let U ₁, U ₂, . . . , U _n–1 be an ordered sample from a Uniform [0,1] distribution. The non-overlapping uniform spacings of order s are defined as \({G_{i}^{(s)} =U_{is} -U_{(i-1)s}, i=1,2,\ldots,N^\prime, G_{N^\prime+1}^{(s)} =1-U_{N^\prime s}}\) with notation U ₀ = 0, U _n = 1, where \({N^\prime=\left\lfloor n/s\right\rfloor}\) is the integer part of n/s. Let \({ N=\left\lceil n/s\right\rceil}\) be the smallest integer greater than or equal to n/s, f _m (u), m = 1, 2, . . . , N, be a sequence of real-valued Borel-measurable functions. In this article a Cramér type large deviation theorem for the statistic \({f_{1,n} (nG_{1}^{(s)})+\cdots+f_{N,n} (nG_{N}^{(s)} )}\) is proved.