A reappraisal of the forecasting performance of corn and soybean new crop futures

Forecasting performance of December corn and November soybean futures contracts during the previous spring was evaluated using the commonly specified price-level and percent-change models. These models invoke different assumptions regarding stationarity. Using Stein's analytical framework, results for the price-level model suggest avoidable social loss existed in the soybean market since 1973, because November futures provided biased forecasts. Regression R²s for both corn and soybeans declined substantially between 1952–1972 and 1973–1997, suggesting total social loss increased. By contrast, results from the percent-change model suggest only unavoidable social loss existed in the corn and soybean markets, because the futures provided unbiased forecasts. R² increased for corn but declined for soybeans, suggesting unavoidable social loss declined for corn, but increased for soybeans. The important, conflicting nature of the results from the two models underscores the importance of examining alternative model specifications when evaluating price forecasting performance. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 604–618, 1999     

Technological trajectories and R&D for environmental innovation in UK firms

This article reports results of a 1993 questionnaire survey of how UK companies have been innovating technologically in response to environmental pressures. The survey sought to identify factors stimulating UK firms to innovate more environmentally friendly products and processes, and to investigate the changes in R&D activity they have undertaken to facilitate such innovation. In devising the questionnaire and interpreting the results, we have been strongly influenced by the theoretical frameworks developed over the past 15 years which describe technological developments in terms of ‘selection environments’ and ‘technological trajectories’. Useful though such frameworks are, we conclude that they need to be supplemented by concepts derived from the sociology of technology and from studies of corporate strategies.     

Spatial aspects of the diffusion of technological innovations among American municipal governments

Examination of the spatial diffusion patterns of a sample of 43 technological innovations organized into four functional areas—fire fighting, traffic control, air pollution control, solid waste collection, and disposal—indicates the absence of systematic patterns of either rank-size or contagious diffusion of these innovations among municipal governments in the United States. Absence of these general patterns reflects an inadequate identification in existing theories of spatial diffusion processes of variables that enter into agency decisions to adopt new technologies and the inadequate identification of possible interactions among variables. In particular, attempts to model diffusion patterns based on neighborhood effect or on hierarchical relationships fail to take into account, it least for the classes of adopters and innovations studied here, polynuclear propagation and the role of intermediaries (e.g. professional associations, governmental agencies, suppliers) in communication patterns or the role of site-specific factors that determine the “suitability” or “worth” or an innovation to different potential adopters.     

ANTI-POVERTY EFFECTIVENESS OF THE MINIMUM LIVING STANDARD ASSISTANCE POLICY IN URBAN CHINA

Since its inception 15 years ago, the Minimum Living Standard Assistance (MLSA) has served as a last resort for China's urban poor. Using national household survey data, this study provides updated evidence on the participation rate, receipt amount, and anti-poverty effectiveness of MLSA. Families eligible for MLSA make up 2.3 percent of the urban population, but only about half of them are actual beneficiaries. City MLSA generosity and household entitled benefit amount both positively correlate with participation rate and household receipt amount. MLSA lowers the poverty rate somewhat, but substantially reduces the poverty gap and severity for its eligible participants. Nevertheless, the poverty reduction role of MLSA is restricted by its partial coverage and delivery. Consequentially, poverty remains a serious problem for MLSA's target population. The anti-poverty effectiveness of MLSA can be strengthened by full coverage and delivery of benefits and by paying special attention to disadvantaged subgroups.     

CHILD SUPPORT IN THE U.S.: CAN FATHERS AFFORD TO PAY MORE?

This paper presents up-to-date estimates of the ability of non-resident fathers to pay child support. While no nationally representative data exist on the incomes of fathers, this issue has become more pertinent in recent years, as child support has become an important national issue. We find that fathers on average are able to pay nearly five times more in child support than they currently pay, and also that low income fathers can afford to pay substantially more than they actually pay. We also find that changes in nonmarital childbearing and the returns to education have had only minimal effects on trends in fathers' incomes.     

Regulation and technological change in the American meat industry

The effects of regulation upon technological change in the American meat industry in the period between 1950 and 1978 are examined in terms of the relationship between three alternative models — neoclassical, X-efficiency, and technological exogeneity —and the behavior of regulatory agencies. The paper is based upon patent data, equipment approvals by the United States Department of Agriculture and interviews with meat equipment and meat processing firms. Each theory was found to account for some of the observed transactions between regulation and technological change. Conversely, no single theory encompasses all observed effects.Regulations have added to the cost of developing new products. Increased uncertainty in the late 1970s over the standards sought by regulatory agencies have similarly increased the uncertainties of the profitability of R&D in selected product lines. This uncertainty was also found to be inducing firms to substitute product development via mergers for their own R&D. The Humane Slaughter Act was the proximate spur for technological advances that lead to a rationalization of production processes. The innovations that resulted from this act and from other regulatory standards highlighted, in accordance with the X-efficiency framework, technological opportunities that existed prior to and independent of changes in regulatory standards. Much of the momentum for technological change in the industry was shaped by an initial set of technological advances and the subsequent working through of production bottlenecks in an interrelated production system. These advances were largely independent of and unaffected by regulatory standards.Indeed, there is reason to believe that regulatory standards may themselves have an element of endogeneity in terms of the feasible set of best practice techniques. Thus at any particular time, technological change may serve to generate a production frontier towards which a regulatory agency might seem to propel an industry.Overall, our judgment is that regulation had little discernible impact on the pace of technological change related to the production and distribution of ground beef in the period between 1950 and 1978. If there has been any net effect, regulation probably served more to stimulate than to inhibit technological change.