Risk premia and seasonality in commodity futures

We develop and estimate a multifactor affine model of commodity futures that allows for stochastic seasonality. We document the existence of stochastic seasonal fluctuations in commodity futures and that properly accounting for the cost‐of‐carry curve requires at least three factors. We estimate the model using data on heating oil futures and analyze the contribution of the factors to risk premia. Correctly specifying seasonality as stochastic is important to avoid erroneously assigning those fluctuations to other risk factors. We also estimate a nonlinear version of the model that imposes the zero lower bound on interest rates and find similar results.     

Wage led aggregate demand in the United Kingdom

The wage led aggregate demand hypothesis is examined for the United Kingdom over the period 1971–2007. Existing studies disagree on the aggregate demand regime for the UK, and this appears to be due to differing empirical approaches. Studies relying on equation-by-equation estimation procedures tend to find support for wage led aggregate demand in the UK, while the single study using a multiple time series estimation procedure finds no support for the hypothesis. We test the wage led aggregate demand hypothesis in the UK using VAR models estimated on quarterly data employing an alternative identification strategy based on shocks to real earnings. The results provide support for the wage led aggregate demand hypothesis during the period of study. However, the expansionary effects of higher earnings seem to be limited and relatively short-lived.     

Trade Liberalization and Heterogeneous Technology Investments

We propose a trade model where heterogeneous firms decide on a productivity‐enhancing technology investment. The model analyzes the impact of multilateral trade liberalization on firm‐ and industry‐level productivity. Freer trade increases the incentives to invest in technology by raising export profits. It also dampens these incentives, however, as profits stemming from domestic sales are reduced. Only exporters benefit from the former positive effect. The shape of the distribution of efficiency draws, the level of trade costs and the technology intensity of the industry are key elements removing the ambiguities regarding the net impact of trade liberalization.     

Water Management,Spanish Irrigation Communities and Colonial Engineers

In the nineteenth century, Spanish irrigation was studied by a number of British and French engineers, who sought to acquire knowledge that could be applied to India and Algeria. In their reports, they said that Spanish irrigation communities were run by the irrigators themselves in a totally democratic way, which was not true. Although such ideas had hardly any practical consequences in colonial India and Algeria, they did have important repercussions in Spain, where the irrigation institutions came to resemble the image they had been given by the reporters, with the best results. Through the work of Elinor Ostrom, the myth created by the nineteenth‐century reporters has also eventually become an argument in favour of irrigation projects in today's developing countries being managed by water users’ associations.     

A Political Economy Application of the “Tragedy of the Anticommons”: The Greek Government Debt Crisis

The tragedy of the anticommons unfolds when separate social agents—be they private owners of a property who intend to use the property for their own economic benefit or political actors who pursue their political objectives—do not hold effective rights to use their economic or political power for their own purposes without consent of the other players of the economic or political game. I shall discuss the Greek government debt crisis and the Eurozone countries’ policies toward Greece within the analytical framework of the tragedy of the anticommons in this paper. I do not intend to dig deep into the structure and long-term trends of public and private finances in Greece. I shall only show that the successive bail-out programs of the Eurozone countries were doomed to fail because of these countries’ competitive and non-cooperative approach to the Greek financial problems. I shall also show that a coordinating agency, say the IMF, can foster the coordinated outcome only under strict informational conditions.     

Dimensions of Destination Images—The Relationship Between Specific Sites and Overall Perceptions of Place: The Example of Dubai Creek and “Greater Dubai”

ABSTRACT

The current research study attempted to identify to what extent the overall, generic image of a place is determined by, or related to, site specific locations within the destination. A series of answers to open-ended questions were elicited from 102 respondents in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The data were analyzed using thematic and textual analysis using the neural network program CatPac?, a principal components analysis of dichotomous variables and Spearman rho tests of frequency ranking. The results from this study imply that two homogeneities of image are able to exist simultaneously in the visitors' minds, even though little correlation appears to exist between the images.     

A Recursive Protocol for Negotiating Contracts Under Non-monotonic Preference Structures

Negotiating contracts with multiple interdependent issues may yield non-monotonic preference spaces for the participating agents. These negotiations are specially challenging because of the complexity and dimension of the search space. Automated negotiation mechanisms designed and proven useful for monotonic utility spaces may fail in these negotiation scenarios. This paper presents a novel solution to the problem of automated multi-issue negotiations in the context of complex utility spaces. We seek to address the challenge of intractably large contract spaces and utility functions with multiple local optima in automated negotiation scenarios. A protocol for automated bilateral multi-attribute negotiation processes is proposed, in which the individual agents??preferences can be non-monotonic and discontinuous. The protocol is based on a recursive non-mediated bargaining mechanism, which involves two agents who simultaneously exchange proposals defined as regions within the negotiation space. An agreement on a region implies a new bargaining which is restricted to that region. This recursive process is governed by a set of rules which modulate the joint exploration of the negotiation space until an agreement is found or a deadline expires. The protocol is experimentally evaluated under monotonic and non-monotonic preference scenarios, confirming that the protocol is able to produce outcomes close to the Pareto frontier in acceptable negotiation time, outperforming previous approaches.     

Reviews

'LONDON INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY'

Greater London Council, London Industrial Strategy. London: GLC, 1985. £5.00 paper. (Now available from Economic Policy Group, Middlesex House, 20 Vauxhall Bridge Road, London, SW1.)

'FUTURE WORK'

James Robertson: Future Work Aldershot, Hants; Gower Publishing Co Ltd, 1985. £15.00 hardback, £6.95 paperback.

'SMALL FIRMS IN REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT'

STOREY, D. J. (ed): Small Firms in Regional Economic Development-Britain, Ireland and the United States. Cambridge University Press, 1985. Cloth, £22.50.

'POLITICS AND METHOD'

Massey, D. and Meegan, R. (eds): Politics and Method: Contrasting Studies in Industrial Geography. London. Methuen, 1985. £6.95 paperback.