Consequences of the inertial development of the labor potential in the Russian Federation

The inertial trends of the dynamics of balance indices of labor force of the Russian Federation are considered in this article, and their characteristics are given. The main trends behind the increase in the labor potential of the country and the increase in the efficiency of its usage are proposed here. The deficit values of the national labor power at different ratios of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth rate and labor capacity that can be interpreted as values describing Russia’s economy’s need for international labor power are evaluated.     

Small enterprises in the RF,their position,and conditions for their development

The development problems of small enterprises are studied. It is shown that despite the important role played by small enterprises in the market economy, which is recognized by the government and by other economic entities, the relative scope of their activities and their output of goods (services) are still insignificant while their innovation initiative is clearly insufficient.     

Scientific and technological interactions between Russia and Ukraine: Forecasting opportunities and mechanisms for their implementation

The paper presents the research results of an investigation into the state of scientific, technological, trade and economic interactions between Russia and Ukraine in terms of their potential, prospects, and problems impeding their cooperation. It is shown that there is a considerable scientific and technological potential both in Russia and Ukraine. Opportunities and conditions for the modernization of both countries’ economies are shown to depend on the coordinated use of their potentials.     

Use of select mortality tables for forecasting the number of recipients of different types of Pensions

At present, planning of the number of pensioners during execution of the budget of the RF Pension Fund is carried out on the basis of analysis of the state statistical accounting data on the population number and mortality. Construction of mortality tables by categories of pensioners on the basis of summarizing the data available at the RF Pension Fund and further use thereof during planning of the budget will permit achieving both forecasting of the number of pensioners by means of moving of ages and planning of expenditures for payment of pensions and benefits as a whole with higher accuracy.     

Structural reform,intra-regional trade,and medium-term growth prospects of East Asia and the Pacific—Perspectives from a new multi-region model

This paper analyses the potential benefits from reforms aimed at promoting domestic demand in the region, as well as the effects of slower growth in the US and the G3 (US, euro area, and Japan) on the members of the Executives’ Meeting of East Asian-Pacific Central Bank (EMEAP). The analysis is based on simulation scenarios using an expanded version of the IMF Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal (GIMF) model which is particularly useful for conducting medium-term policy analysis, as it incorporates rich layers of intra-regional trade, production, and demand allowing the transmission mechanism of structural reforms and external shocks to be fully articulated. The simulation results show that reforms to rebalance the pattern of demand in regional economies (such as Mainland China) more towards domestic demand could entail non-negligible benefits for the EMEAP. These benefits could be even larger for those economies that more flexibly adjust to the shift in China's trade pattern. The simulation results also demonstrate that structural reforms in EMEAP economies will allow them to reduce vulnerabilities to economic downturns in major economies.     

A toolkit for macrostructural regional forecasting: Methodological approaches and results of computations

This paper discusses the issues of developing a consistent system of forecast computations providing a long-term outlook for the Russian economy in both sectoral and regional contexts. Under special focus is the formation of regional development scenarios. Such scenarios are suggested to be based on the territorial pattern of investments into the national economy. Results of computations are presented for the period up to 2030 for two scenarios.