Why Invest in Emerging Markets? The Role of Conditional Return Asymmetry

We propose a quantile‐based measure of conditional skewness, particularly suitable for handling recalcitrant emerging market (EM) returns. The skewness of international stock market returns varies significantly across countries over time, and persists at long horizons. In EMs, skewness is mostly positive and idiosyncratic, and significantly relates to a country's financial and trade openness and balance of payments. In an international portfolio setting, return asymmetry leads to sizeable certainty‐equivalent gains and increases the weight on emerging countries to about 30%. Investing in EMs seems to be about expectations of a higher upside than downside, consistent with recent theories.     

FIRM‐LEVEL DETERMINANTS OF POLITICAL INFLUENCE

This paper uses a large cross‐country survey of business firms to assess their influence on government policies. When controlling for endogeneity, we find that such an influence is associated with larger firms and to a lesser extent with government ownership, but not with the degree of competition. We also find that firms' perception of being politically influential is enhanced with the country's level of institutional quality.     

DOES COMPULSORY VOTING HELP EQUALIZE INCOMES?

This paper explores the link between compulsory voting and income distribution using a cross‐section of countries around the world. Our empirical cross‐country analysis for 91 countries during the period 1960–2000 shows that when compulsory voting can be strongly enforced the distribution of income improves as measured by the Gini coefficient and the bottom income quintiles of the population. Our findings are robust to changes and additions to our benchmark specification. Because poorer countries are the ones with relatively more unequal distribution of income it might make sense to promote such voting schemes in developing regions, such as Latin America. This, under the assumption that bureaucratic costs related with design and implementation are not excessive.     

The Home Bias and the Credit Crunch: A Regional Perspective

Using detailed data on loan applications and decisions for a large sample of manufacturing firms in Italy during the recent financial crisis, we find that the credit crunch has been harsher in provinces with a large share of branches owned by distantly managed banks. Inconsistent with a flight to quality we do not find evidence that economically weaker firms suffered more during the crisis. In contrast, we find that financially healthier firms were affected more in functionally distant credit markets than in markets populated by less distant banks, consistent with a home bias on the part of nationwide banks.     

DELAYS IN STABILIZATION OR IN REFORMS? THE DEBT CRISIS

Empirical analyses attributing the 1980s’ debt crisis to inconsistent stabilization policies rest on an inappropriate long‐run approach. Revising this long‐run approach yields opposite results: terms of trade shocks and foreign indebtedness explain this crisis, regardless of domestic stabilization policies. This prompts us to consider a new hypothesis, of delays in trade‐policy reforms, with a model in which terms‐of‐trade variation (under shocks) is endogenous to export structure and efficiency of resource allocation. Evidence from the structural equations model shows that allocation distortions negatively affect changes in terms of trade, which then explain this crisis. A political economy extension demonstrates that income inequality and regional trade policy determine the distortions, which in turn leads to this crisis.     

REMITTANCES AND AGGREGATE LABOR SUPPLY: EVIDENCE FROM SIXTY‐SIX DEVELOPING NATIONS

Do remittances reduce labor supply in recipient economies? This paper addresses this question with aggregate level data for a panel of sixty‐six developing countries from the Middle East and Africa, Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean over the period 1985 to 2005. The results exhibit a positive and significant relationship between remittances and aggregate labor supply. The effect is clearly driven by men in each of the three regions. Three potential explanations are put forward to explain these empirical findings: (1) non‐migrating household members are likely to increase their labor supply in order to defray migration‐related expenses; (2) neighboring households increase their labor supply to help family members migrate after they become more aware of the benefits of remittances; and (3) remittances overcome credit constraints, thus generating employment.     

The Happiness Trade‐Off between Unemployment and Inflation

Unemployment and inflation lower well‐being. The macroeconomist Arthur Okun characterized the negative effects of unemployment and inflation by the misery index—the sum of the unemployment and inflation rates. This paper makes use of a large European data set, covering the period 1975–2013, to estimate happiness equations in which an individual subjective measure of life satisfaction is regressed against unemployment and inflation rate (controlling for personal characteristics, country, and year fixed effects). We find, conventionally, that both higher unemployment and higher inflation lower well‐being. We also discover that unemployment depresses well‐being more than inflation. We characterize this well‐being trade‐off between unemployment and inflation using what we describe as the misery ratio. Our estimates with European data imply that a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate lowers well‐being by more than five times as much as a 1 percentage point increase in the inflation rate.     

English‐Language Proficiency and Occupational Risk Among Hispanic Immigrant Men in the United States

We use data from the Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries, the Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses, and the 2000 U.S. decennial census to analyze how occupational risk relates to the earnings of Hispanic immigrant men. Our findings indicate that those with limited English‐language fluency received significantly higher compensating wages in unsafe jobs than their English‐fluent counterparts. The larger occupational‐risk premiums accrued by limited‐English‐proficient (LEP) foreign‐born Hispanic men also hold when further including U.S.‐born Hispanic, non‐Hispanic Black, and non‐Hispanic White men in the sample. These findings are consistent with underlying differences in preferences toward wages versus safety between LEP and English‐proficient workers and/or differences in coverage under formal workers’ compensation programs, perhaps because undocumented workers (many of whom already faced hazardous conditions when migrating illegally to work in the United States) comprise a disproportionate share of the LEP. However, our data and methodologies do not allow us to determine whether these premiums adequately compensate the LEP for the occupational risk they undertake.     

A Note on the Changes in the Relative Wages of LEP Hispanic Men between 1980 and 2000

Using the Juhn‐Murphy‐Pierce (1993 ) wage decomposition technique, we analyzed changes in the earnings differential between Hispanic and non‐Hispanic white men in the United States between 1980 and 2000. The empirical findings, based on decennial census data, indicate that limited‐English‐proficient (LEP) Hispanic men gained in their relative earnings position compared to English‐fluent Hispanics during the 1990s. Our interpretation is that the relative demand for LEP Hispanic workers has risen in recent years.