Natural selection as a paradigm of opportunism in biology

The success of extant species is largely due to their ability to adapt in the face of constantly changing environmental conditions. Natural selection is the biological mechanism that takes advantage of opportunities to promote spontaneous variations and facilitate evolutionary development. The character of this biological opportunism is considered here, placing it firmly within the context of various social and economic principles—notably individualism, industrialism, utilitarianism and consequentialism—that have characterised the philosophy of the modern era. However, this purely opportunistic approach, and its myopic emphasis on immediate problem solving, has serious shortcomings within both life and business practice. These are examined here in contrast to some of the alternative approaches found in biology and economics theory. The nature and relationship of function to utility in biology is also given particular consideration, as is the issue of incrementalism in the development of complex adaptive features. The methodological reductionism at the heart of evolutionary biology certainly does offer insightful empirical results reported in the scientific literature. Nonetheless, natural selection is observed to be a purely reflexive mechanism and not one capable of producing the kind of innovation necessary for the more revolutionary changes in an organism’s systems.     

Construction of an economic index to measure the causes of economic insecurity

This paper is an updated study on the causes of economic insecurity in the United States. The authors have constructed an aggregate composite index that measures objectively the major causes of economic insecurity (CEI) in the United States. The CEI index consists of 11 variables that can cause economic insecurity. The time period under investigation is 1960 through 2001. A rising CEI index indicates that the causes of economic insecurity in the United States have increased in relative importance, which results in an increase in economic insecurity. Conversely, a falling CEI index indicates that the causes of economic insecurity have declined in relative importance, which results in a reduction of economic insecurity. However, despite substantial economic growth in the American economy from 1960 through 2001, the CEI index overall showed little improvement. The major conclusion is that the CEI index was 9 percent higher in 2001 than it was in 1960. This result was due largely to the increase in divorce, violent crime, rising out-of-pocket expenditures for health care, inflation, and unemployment. The results for subperiods are dramatically different, and we think more interesting, than the overall results. During the 1960s, there was a small decline in the CEI index. The 1970s showed a dramatic increase in the CEI index, which reflected both high unemployment rates and inflation rates during this period. The 1980s experienced fluctuating levels in the index but little overall change, and the 1990s experienced a sharp decline in the CEI index due largely to a robust economy. The CEI index has increased more recently, which reflects largely the recent 2001 business recession. The correlation coefficient of the CEI index with the University of Michigan's well-known Index of Consumer Sentiment is ?676. This figure shows that as the CEI index rises, consumer sentiment about the American economy becomes pessimistic and negative.     

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF BEN GRAHAM'S NET CURRENT ASSET VALUE RULE

This paper presents evidence that the net current asset value rule developed by Ben Graham in 1930 is still profitable in the 1970s and early 1980s. The abnormal gain is not due to future mergers because both the merged and nonmerged subsamples have positive and statistically significant returns in the post-event period.     

Junk bonds,life insurer insolvency,and stock market reactions: The case of first executive corporation

The First Executive Corporation was the largest failure in the history of the life insurance industry. The company was one of the most aggressive purchasers of junk bonds through the 1980s and was the first of several large failures in the staid life insurance industry. In this article, we examine the effect of First Executive's failure on the value of companies in the life insurance industry. We find that the price of other life insurance companies' stock is negatively affected by the earnings announcement that preceded First Executive's failure. The magnitude of an individual company's reaction to First Executive's loss varies according to the proportion of the company's assets invested in junk bonds, the proportion of the company's assests invested in real estate, and the financial strength of the company as measured by A.M. Best's rating.     

Allocation,externalities, and building value

Externalities generally are viewed as impacting land values rather than building values. Yet when locational obsolescence is attributed to externalities, the implication is that externalities impact primarily on building values. The presence of negative externalities generally does not determine whether a building suffers from locational obsolescence; the more general cause is a misallocation of land. At the market allocation, there is no locational obsolescence even in the presence of an externality, while at the optimal allocation only an externality can produce locational obsolescence. Because locational obsolescence can exist without externalities, an externality is not a necessary condition for locational obsolescence. Because an externality can be present without accompanying locational obsolescence, an externality also is not a sufficient condition for the existence of locational obsolescence.     

比利时的财富

“请注册为‘D.E.Koninck＇的直升机的主人到咨询台前来好吗？”在首届富世生活比利时峰荟举办地科特赖克展览中心的现场．喇叭里传来这样紧急但礼貌的询问。原来，展览中心的停车场停满了兰博基尼，宾利等名车，但一位直升机的主人不慌不忙地将其两人位的飞机停在了车辆旁边。显然．这位主人宁可被罚也一心想要参加世界顶级奢侈品盛会，毫无疑问，他是对的。     

Rankings Methodology for International Comparisons of Institutions and Individuals: an Application to Economics in Australia and New Zealand

Abstract.  The objectives of this paper are threefold. First, we critically survey and analyse the different methodologies that have been adopted in the rankings literature. Second, using journal articles included in the ECONLIT database and on the basis of two criteria – one based on citations and the other on perceptions of journal quality, we rank economics teaching departments in Australia and New Zealand for 1988–2002 and 1996–2002 and for individual academic economists for the periods 1988–2002, 1988–1995 and 1996–2002. Furthermore, we identify individual star performers and recognize them in a designated 'Hall of Fame' for 1988–2002. Third, our methodology enables us to make international comparisons on total and per capita bases. Previous multi-country ranking studies in economics do not rank economics departments. They provide rankings based on total publications in economics in universities regardless of whether the economists are in the economics departments or in other departments. Thus, no rankings on per capita bases are provided. We correct this shortcoming by providing total and per capita rankings and analysing the correlations between total and per capita rankings. This is the first study to examine whether the size of the economics department matters with regard to productivity.     

Derivative mortgage securities: An overview

Derivative mortgage securities have proliferated since planned amortization and floating rate CMO classes were introduced in late 1986. Other recently created derivative securities include reverse floaters and deep-discount bonds of CMOs, CMO residuals, and stripped and senior/subordinated passthroughs. These securities, which are derived from fixed-rate mortgages, were created to meet investor demands for maturity certainly, interest rate and prepayment hedging, and enhanced credit. The rapid growth of derivative securities reflects expansion of the investor base for fixed-rate mortgages. It also suggests that these mortgages will continue to be a viable housing finance instrument in a volatile interest rate environment. For the future, the increased creation of derivative securities will make the secondary mortgage market more efficient, facilitating the funding of fixed-rate mortgage originations.The substance of this paper was originally written in late 1987 and many of the specific data reflect that time period.