The theory of optimum currency areas,trade adjustment,and trade

This article seeks to provide a closer integration of the theory of optimum currency areas with the theory of international trade. A currency area is treated as a continuous variable ranging from zero to one: zero if there is no enlargement, and some positive value otherwise, corresponding exactly to the percentge of trade in the enlarged area. The benefits of widening a currency area are then regarded, in terms of conventional trade theory, as equivalent to a reduction in transportation cost. The costs of widening a currency area are seen, instead, with reference to open economy macroeconomics, as a drop in the speed of adjustment of the terms of trade to their long-run equilibrium level. On this basis, it is shown that the marginal benefits of enlarging a currency area fall, the marginal costs rise, and an optimum size arises. But this size depends heavily on the optimal composition of the members.CEPR     

Bivariate Survival Models for Coupled Lives

This article presents alternative models for modeling the dependence of the time of deaths of coupled lives and applies these to a data set from a life annuity portfolio. The data indicates a very high positive correlation in the time of deaths between coupled lives. The analysis concludes that a mixed frailty copula model with Gompertz marginals fits the data very well. Another model that fits the data well is based on a generalized Frank copula.     

The territorial futures of Europe: ‘Trends’, ‘Competition’ or ‘Cohesion’

The ESPON 2006 scenario project generated three integrated roll-forward scenarios (A roll-forward scenario is a scenario in which the hypotheses define the parameters at the start of the covered time period and the scenario then explores the unfolding of events based on theses hypotheses. This is opposed to a roll-backward scenario in which the situation at the end of the time period is defined and the scenario then explores the path to reach this situation.). In the trend scenario renewed efforts are made for the Lisbon strategy, demanding extra investments in R&D and education. Regional policy will also be continued with vigour. In the Competition Scenario bold decisions are made regarding Europe's continued prosperity. The Lisbon strategy takes precedence over institutional reform and other sectoral policies. In the Cohesion Scenario Europe is confronted with the challenge of fully integrating the various regions in Europe. The budgets for Regional Policy and Rural Development Policy are enhanced and targeted to the most needy regions. The scenarios are described as stories about the future, supported by model calculations and visualised by various maps. They concentrate on urban and rural development and on territorial developments in different parts of Europe, like North-West Europe, the Alpine Space and Central and Eastern Europe. In addition, a proactive, roll-back scenario explores the possibilities to combine competitiveness, cohesion and sustainability. A message, derived from the scenarios, is that independent of the explored policy options the European territory will be confronted with large challenges like a (rapid) decline of fossil energy resources and increasing impacts of climate change. The scenarios appear particularly helpful in the context of the current paradigm shift in European regional policy from a policy for balance to a policy for aggregate growth.     

Bribery versus extortion: allowing the lesser of two evils

Both bribery and extortion weaken the power of incentives, but there is a trade‐off in fighting the two because rewards to prevent supervisors from accepting bribes create incentives for extortion. Which is the worse evil? A fear of inducing extortion may make it optimal to tolerate bribery, but extortion is never allowed. Extortion discourages “good behavior” because the agent suffers from it even though he has done the right thing, whereas a bribe acts as a penalty for “bad behavior.” Our analysis provides lessons to fight corruption and explanations why developed countries may have an advantage in dealing with extortion.     

The 100 plus corporate environmental report study: A survey of an evolving environmental management tool

An emerging environmental management tool is the corporate environmental report, a free-standing document, analogous to the corporate annual report, but which covers environmental and often health and safety issues. This study examines the nature of the corporate environmental reports of large, public, US companies to determine which companies produce reports, what type of information is reported, how this information is presented, and who might be the audiences for this information. This study also seeks to identify state of the art practice in corporate environmental reports, drawing on the US reports and leading environmental reports from Europe and Canada. Over 100 US companies now publish corporate environmental reports. These companies are primarily from the manufacturing sector, although they are increasingly part of the service sector. Report issuers identified employees and shareholders as their primary audiences. Both overall report organization and composition as well as report distribution, including the use of the Internet for environmental reporting, were examined. Topics which reflect leading edge environmental practice are identified and examples from reports are given. These topics include integrating business and environmental performance, environmental policy, goals and measurement, management and organizational structure, environmental and resource data presentation, third-party verification, disclosure of negative information, and sustainability. The paper discusses trends in reporting and makes recommendations to improve reports.© 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

A QUANTIZATION TREE METHOD FOR PRICING AND HEDGING MULTIDIMENSIONAL AMERICAN OPTIONS

We present here the quantization method which is well-adapted for the pricing and hedging of American options on a basket of assets. Its purpose is to compute a large number of conditional expectations by projection of the diffusion on optimal grids designed to minimize the (square mean) projection error ( Graf and Luschgy 2000 ). An algorithm to compute such grids is described. We provide results concerning the orders of the approximation with respect to the regularity of the payoff function and the global size of the grids. Numerical tests are performed in dimensions 2, 4, 5, 6, 10 with American style exchange options. They show that theoretical orders are probably pessimistic.     

Risk-based capital, portfolio risk, and bank capital: A simultaneous equations approach

This paper examines the impact the risk-based capital standards had on bank capital and portfolio risk during the first year the risk-based standards were in effect. To date, insufficient attention has been focused on how the risk-based capital standards have impacted bank capital and risk. Building on previous research, this study used a three-stage least squares (3SLS) model to analyze the relationship between bank capital, portfolio risk, and the risk-based capital standards. The results suggest that the risk-based capital standards were effective in increasing capital ratios and reducing portfolio risk in commercial banks.     

Is there Value-Added Information in Liquidity and Risk Premiums?

Size has become a significant factor in explaining returns. According to the size effect, smaller capitalization stocks on average outperform larger capitalization stocks over long periods of time. This paper first documents the traditional size effect on the French market for the 1986–1998 period. It introduces a new proxy for size, free float, which is argued to be the appropriate measure of size and liquidity for most non‐US markets. Evidence is presented of a negative link between historical returns and free float. The link is significant even outside of the month of January, a notable divergence from results obtained on the NYSE. The rest of the paper is an attempt to take advantage of this 'ex‐post' phenomenon on an 'ex‐ante' basis, with an empirical study of the link between expected return, risk, and liquidity in a sample consisting of the main 150 stocks quoted on the Paris Bourse between January 1986 and January 1998. Liquidity premiums are estimated for portfolios from both a univariate and a multivariate perspective. The paper shows how risk and liquidity premiums can be used separately or in tandem for market timing and asset allocation. In all cases, the use of both premiums together leads to superior performance. Results confirm our measurements of liquidity and liquidity premiums and supply evidence that liquidity premiums together with risk premiums are useful in active asset management.