Political institutions and economic volatility

We examine the effect of political ‘institutions’ on economic growth volatility, using data from more than 100 countries over the period 1960 to 2005, taking into account various control variables as suggested in previous studies. Our indicator of volatility is the relative standard deviation of the growth rate of GDP per capita. The results of a dynamic panel model indicate that democracy reduces economic volatility. We also find that some dimensions of political instability and policy uncertainty increase economic volatility.     

Trade Barriers,Openness, and Economic Growth

Using a long data set on openness and productivity, this article tests the influence of openness on total factor productivity (TFP) growth and per capita growth since 1870 for 16 industrialized countries. It is shown, in simple regressions, that growth is, by and large, independent of openness. However, once the interaction between openness and foreign knowledge is allowed for, productivity is positively affected by openness.     

The Indian growth miracle and endogenous growth

Using over half a century of R&D data for India, this paper tests whether the second-generation endogenous growth theories are consistent with India's growth experience. Furthermore, the paper examines the extent to which growth in India can be explained by R&D activity, international R&D spillovers, catch-up to the technology frontier and policy reforms. The empirical results show that the growth in India over the past five decades has been driven by research intensity following the predictions of Schumpeterian growth theory.     

The Location of Firms in Unionized Countries*

This paper develops a two‐country economic geography model with Cournot competition, where the labor markets are unionized so that trade unions bargain efficiently with each firm over wages and employment. Agglomeration forces are present due to wage premia obtained by the trade unions. It is shown that if the bargaining power of unions differs across countries then, as trade costs are reduced, the country with relatively weak unions gradually acquires all firms. However, for a range of trade costs, it is also a locally stable equilibrium for all firms to locate in the country with strong unions.     

On the relationship between Dutch and German interest rates

Summary In this paper the relationship between Dutch and German short-term and long-term interest rates is examined. Using cointegration techniques, it is found that the covered interest parity hypothesis holds for short-term interest rates. This evidence supports the recent shift of emphasis of Dutch monetary policy. It appears that the uncovered short-term interest differential is stationary. The long-term interest differential is stationary with a shift in mean. This does not imply that the uncovered interest parity (UIP) holds. Using the indirect approach suggested by Fama (1984), we show that a risk premium exists and that, therefore, UIP does not hold.The authors would like to thank H. Garretsen, L.H. Hoogduin, J. Jacobs, C.A. de Kam and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments on a previous version of this paper.Economic Bureau NMB-Postbank.     

The impact of government deficits on money growth in developing countries

This paper investigates the relationship between government budget deficits and money growth in the developing countries for which reliabile data exist. It is sometimes suggested that it is more likely that money growth follows debt growth in developing countries, due to the embryonic state of capital markets and because the central bank generally comes under direct control of the minister of finance. Our results provide only mixed support for this contention, however. In the majority of countries in our sample there is no evidence that government deficits affect money growth. For high-inflation years there seems to be more support for a relationship between deficits and money growth.