Valuing GM technologies using real options: the case of drought tolerant wheat in Australia

ABSTRACT

In this article we seek to estimate the value of a partially-developed crop technology from the perspective of the firm developing the technology. Firms need this value estimation to decide whether their technology will earn a sufficient return in the market to justify investing in it. However, determining the (ex-ante) value of the technology before it is commercialised is challenging as the technology is not yet in the market and hence the demand function has not yet been defined. An alternative valuation method is required. We use risk premiums, Monte Carlo simulation and real options analysis and we demonstrate this combination of valuation tools on wheat that is currently being developed in Australia to be drought tolerant. The results indicate that this drought tolerant wheat variety is likely to be adopted by farmers in most regions and has a pre-commercialisation value that justifies continued investment in its development. We also identified South Australia as a region in which the new variety would not be sufficiently valuable to farmers to see them adopt it and we consider possible explanations for this outcome.     

Foreign aid preferences and perceptions in donor countries

We present original survey data on preferences for foreign aid in 24 donor countries from 2005 to 2008. On publicly-funded foreign aid (Official Development Assistance, or ODA), we find patterns that are consistent with a standard model of democratic policy formation, in which donations are treated as a pure public good. Controlling for perceptions of current ODA, we show that individual preferences for ODA are (i) negatively correlated with relative income within a country-year; and (ii) positively correlated with inequality at the country level. We extend the analysis to explain variation in the gap between desired aid and actual ODA, arguing that lobbying by high-income special interest groups can divert resources away from the median voter’s preferred level of aid. Consistent with this, we observe that ODA is significantly lower where policymakers are more susceptible to lobbying. Finally, we present a novel test of competing “crowding out” hypotheses. Self-reported private aid donations are negatively correlated with actual ODA, and positively correlated with perceived ODA. This finding is consistent with an emerging argument in the literature, whereby ODA crowds out private aid by enabling charities to forego fundraising activities and crowds in private aid through a signaling channel.     

Reliability and relevance of fair values: private equity investments and investee fundamentals

Review of Accounting Studies - We directly test the reliability and relevance of investee fair values reported by listed private equity funds (LPEs). In our setting, disaggregated fair value...     

Accounting for the business cycle: Nominal rigidities, factor heterogeneity, and Austrian capital theory

An Austrian interpretation of the New Keynesian small menu cost model of the business cycle is proposed. Austrian and New Keynesian business cycle theories share the feature that the cycle is generated by rigidities which prevent the economy from adapting instantaneously to changing conditions. Austrian business cycle theory is capital-based, focusing on credit expansion which artificially lowers interest rates and causes an investment boom and unsustainable business expansion. In contrast, the New Keynesian small menu cost model of the business cycle is based on nominal rigidities which prevent markets from clearing. Small menu costs introduce dichotomous behavior, where firms find it locally optimal to avoid instantaneous output price adjustments in the face of the cost, but this local optimum results in economy-wide output and employment fluctuations which are much greater in relative magnitude. The small menu cost model of the business cycle is extended and reinterpreted in light of Austrian business cycle theory with heterogeneous, multiply-specific capital, thus providing a rigorous formalization of the Austrian business cycle. The Austrian interpretation of this New Keynesian model fortuitously addresses several of its shortcomings. JEL classification B53, E12, E23, E32     

Environmental taxes in a differentiated mixed duopoly

Beladi and Chao (2006) and Bárcena-Ruiz and Garzón (2006) considered the role of environmental policy on the decision whether to privatize a public firm in different market structures. This paper re-examines whether privatization improves (or deteriorates) the environment in a mixed duopolistic framework with differentiated product and pollution abatement. It is shown that, due to privatization, less attention is paid to pollution abatement by all the firms coupled with less environment taxes levied by the government in a differentiated duopoly, and the environment is more (less) damaged when the product is less (more) substitutable. When the product is highly substitutable, industry profits increase because this softens the intensity of the product market, but social welfare deteriorates accompanied with the path of privatization because the loss of consumer surplus and tax revenue exceeds the increases in profits, even if the environment is less damaged.     

An assessment and ranking of barriers to doing environmental business with China

The transfer of environmental goods and services to China will increasingly be of importance to developed nations as the demand for environmental management services increases in China. A review of the literature on technology transfer to China revealed a range of well recognized and commonly known constraints to transferring technologies to China. There were gaps in the literature in relation to the concerns that environmental professionals have regarding technology transfer to China, as there is limited information on the transfer in environmental goods and services to China. A survey of the non‐trade barriers and their practical impact on the transfer of environmental technologies and goods and services to China, focusing on Australian suppliers, was undertaken to address these gaps. The survey, which was developed from barriers to technology transfer already described in the extensive research addressing the wider issues of technology transfer to China, targeted environmental professionals but also included other professionals with interests in transferring environmental goods and services to China. From the survey, the highest priority barriers to transferring environmental goods and service to China were identified, and those that are most likely to limit Australian vendors of environmental goods and services in their technology transfers to China were protection of intellectual property (IP), limitations of the rule of law, fragmentation and bureaucracy of the Chinese government and establishing appropriate level of ownership (of environmental goods and services providers in China). Examples of Australian experience were also examined, which confirmed these barriers to providing the needed technology and innovation to manage China's increasing environmental impacts. The research also shows that the barriers identified do not appear to be unique to transfer of environmental goods and services but rather generic to the transfer and adoption of Australian technology into China. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Market power and fiscal policy in OECD countries

We compute average markups as a measure of market power throughout time and study their interaction with fiscal policy and macroeconomic variables in a VAR framework. From impulse-response functions, the results, with annual data for a set of 14 OECD countries, show that the markup (i) depicts a pro-cyclical behaviour with productivity shocks and (ii) a counter-cyclical behaviour with fiscal spending shocks. We also use a PVAR, increasing the efficiency in the estimations, which confirms the country-specific results.     

Disruption management in distributed enterprises: A multi-agent modelling and simulation of cooperative recovery behaviours

Disruption management in industrial areas consists in dealing with unanticipated events that get the plans deviate from their intended course. The solution results from the design and the maintenance of an operating mode ensuring a relevant deployment of individual recovery behaviours.The paper proposes an approach to minimize the impact of disrupting events on the whole system. It is based on an analysis of disrupting events and the characterization of the recovery process, and on a cooperative repair method for distributed industrial systems. This method is based on a cooperative distributed problem solving approach supported by a multi-agent system framework.