Forecasting development outcomes under alternative surplus labour assumptions

Economic forecasts are useful to policymakers both as aids to planning, and as baselines against which counterfactual scenarios can be compared. However, policy makers should be aware that assumptions relating to model structure can influence forecast results. We explore the sensitivity of forecasts to one aspect of model structure important in modelling developing economies: surplus agricultural labour. We outline a framework for modelling surplus agricultural labour that relies on average product remuneration. We embed this within a model of a developing economy (the Philippines) characterized by surplus agricultural labour. We compare the results of two forecasts that differ in their treatment of the agricultural labour market. In the first, the surplus labour theory is activated, establishing average product remuneration in agriculture. In the second, the surplus labour theory is not activated, creating a failure to recognize average product remuneration in agriculture. By comparing the two simulations, we show that failure to model the presence of average product remuneration, when it would be appropriate to do so, has an impact that would be material to economic planners, leading them to: under-estimate agricultural employment; over-estimate GDP growth; and, over-estimate important policy variables (like tax revenue) that are related to GDP growth.     

Measuring Serious Leisure in Chess: Model Confirmation and Method Bias

The serious leisure inventory and measure (SLIM) was tested with 348 chess players to confirm the factors, assess the effects of method bias, and propose a set of the best-performing items for the 18 factor SLIM. The 54-item SLIM demonstrated acceptable fit and reliability values. The effect of method bias was evidenced in the sample and explained one-third of the variance. Inspection of factor loadings, when controlling for method bias, yielded one best-performing item per factor. Findings indicate method bias continues to be problematic for self-report measures such as the SLIM.     

‘Devolution’ of transport powers to Local Government: Impacts of the 2004 Traffic Management Act in England

The concept of ‘Devolution’—the transfer of powers away from the Central Government to more local bodies of Government, has been used across many different areas of policy and by many different national governments. This paper examines the devolution of transport powers to the existing Local Traffic Authorities in England via the 2004 Traffic Management Act. The paper first presents a summary of how several different nations have undertaken this process of devolving transport powers and responsibilities to either new or existing bodies. It then presents research from an electronic survey concerning how English Local Traffic Aut`horities are choosing to use some of the new powers available to them and their opinion on complementary areas of transport policy. Research is also presented from structured telephone interviews, concerning how individual Local Authorities perceive the efficacy and equity of the new legislation. Overall, the results show that only some of these new powers are likely to be used by English Local Authorities, with limited variation in how different types of LTA are choosing to implement these new powers. The structured telephone interviews provided some evidence that rural Authorities in particular are more dissatisfied with the legislation and consider some of the measures unhelpful. The results provide some insights on the formulation of devolved policy applicable to existing Local Government bodies and the varying benefits that can be perceived to apply to different types of Local Authority. Conclusions are drawn on some of the practical difficulties arising from the English experience, and lessons of relevance are drawn for other nations considering a similar devolution of transport powers.     

Socio-demographic risks of the long-term development of the Russian economy

Key risks and threats of the long-term development of the Russian economy, originating from the social sphere, are revealed and analyzed. The article focuses on human capital development and replenishment problems, as well as on the social effects of these problems on education, health conditions, labor migration, and pension provision.     

The Role of Financial Appraisal in Decisions to Acquire Advanced Manufacturing Technology

There have been suggestions that the financial appraisal techniques which are commonly applied to capital expenditure proposals may be unsuitable for evaluating proposals concerned with the acquisition of advanced manufacturing technology. This paper reviews the arguments advanced to justify exempting such proposals from financial appraisal. It is argued that the case against financial appraisal is not substantiated. The difficulties cited by the critics of financial appraisal can be resolved by better management of the appraisal process.     

Stuck in the middle: Impacts of grade configuration in public schools

We examine the implications of separating students of different grade levels across schools for the purposes of educational production. Specifically, we find that moving students from elementary to middle school in 6th or 7th grade causes significant drops in academic achievement. These effects are large (about 0.15 standard deviations), present for both math and English, and persist through grade 8, the last year for which we have achievement data. The effects are similar for boys and girls, but stronger for students with low levels of initial achievement. We instrument for middle school attendance using the grade range of the school students attended in grade 3, and employ specifications that control for student fixed effects. This leaves only one potential source of bias–correlation between grade range of a student's grade 3 school and unobservable characteristics that cause decreases in achievement precisely when students are due to switch schools–which we view as highly unlikely. We find little evidence that placing public school students into middle schools during adolescence is cost-effective.     

Western Households’ Water Knowledge,Preferences, and Willingness to Pay

Water conflicts are intensifying as the population grows in the American West. Stakeholders seek a better understanding of households’ water knowledge, preferences, and willingness to pay (WTP) as they contemplate various water allocation initiatives. An Internet survey provides insight into western households’ perceptions and preferences regarding water use and management, their familiarity with water terminology, and their WTP a fee in support of eight potential water initiatives regarding water acquisition, conservation, and reallocation. Further analysis identifies factors that influence the decision. Just over half of all respondents express a WTP the fee, with an estimated median WTP among survey respondents of $15.65 per summer month. Respondents with higher self-reported water knowledge are more likely to support the fee. The probability of supporting the fee is also influenced by respondents’ demographic characteristics and attitudes toward water scarcity and management. Les conflits liés à l’eau s’intensifient à mesure que la population s’accroît dans l’Ouest américain. Les parties prenantes cherchent à découvrir les connaissances sur l’eau, les préférences et le consentement à payer des ménages étant donné qu’elles envisagent divers schémas d’allocation de l’eau. Un sondage en ligne a donné un aperçu des perceptions et des préférences des ménages de l’Ouest américain concernant l’utilisation et la gestion de l’eau, de leur degré de connaissance de la terminologie de l’eau et de leur consentement à payer une taxe pour appuyer huit projets éventuels d’acquisition, de conservation et de réallocation de l’eau. Une analyse plus détaillée a déterminé les facteurs qui influençaient les décisions. Un peu plus de la moitié des répondants ont indiquéêtre prêts à payer une taxe. Chez les répondants, le consentement à payer médian s’élevait à 15,65 $ par mois durant la saison estivale. Les répondants qui ont indiqué avoir de bonnes connaissances sur l’eau sont plus susceptibles d’appuyer l’imposition d’une taxe. Les caractéristiques démographiques et les attitudes des répondants envers la rareté et la gestion de l’eau influencent la probabilité d’appuyer l’imposition d’une taxe.     

Understanding the Impact of Health Reform on the States: Expansion of Coverage through Medicaid and Exchanges

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) expands Medicaid coverage and creates subsidized state health insurance exchanges. The implementation of the ACA will impact the states and consequently the state residents differently. We discuss the factors contributing to the variation in uninsured rates and the Medicaid population, and we predict that these underlying economic, demographic factors and state policies will continue to affect health insurance coverage. Using data from the March 2010 Current Population Survey (CPS), we examine health care coverage at the state level prior to the ACA and forecast the percentage of state residents eligible for expanded Medicaid and the exchanges. Our results suggest the percentage of state population eligible for expanded Medicaid and subsidized exchanges will vary considerably, especially for adults. Further, we show that current state Medicaid eligibility rules, the percentage of employers offering health insurance and poverty rates will continue to shape the variation in projected health insurance coverage across the states. Finally, we discuss the potential impact of the Supreme Court decision that allowed states to opt‐out of Medicaid expansion.     

Benchmarking Risk Management Within the International Water Utility Sector. Part I: Design of a Capability Maturity Methodology

Risk management in the water utility sector is becoming increasingly explicit. However, due to the novelty and complexity of the discipline, utilities are encountering difficulties in defining and institutionalising their risk management processes. In response, the authors have developed a sector specific capability maturity methodology for benchmarking and improving risk management. The research, conducted in consultation with water utility practitioners, has distilled risk management into a coherent, process‐based framework. We identified eleven risk management processes, and eight key attributes with characterise the extent to which these processes are defined, controlled and institutionalised. Implementation of the model should enable utilities to more effectively employ their portfolio of risk analysis techniques for optimal, credible and defensible decision making.