Time Series Concepts for Conditional Distributions*

The paper asks the question – as time series analysis moves from consideration of conditional mean values and variances to unconditional distributions, do some of the familiar concepts devised for the first two moments continue to be helpful in the more general area? Most seem to generalize fairly easy, such as the concepts of breaks, seasonality, trends and regime switching. Forecasting is more difficult, as forecasts become distributions, as do forecast errors. Persistence can be defined and also common factors by using the idea of a copula. Aggregation is more difficult but causality and controllability can be defined. The study of the time series of quantiles becomes more relevant.     

Hazardous waste disposal: A comparative analysis of regulation,taxes and subsidies

This paper contains a critique of existing legislation which deals with hazardous waste disposal and expands on the efforts made by the Office of Technology Assessment and other economists to develop a public policy which will deal effectively with the problems associated with hazardous waste generation and disposal. A new policy is set forth here which encourages both waste reduction and safe disposal while providing revenue to pay for cleanups at Superfund sites.     

Auctioning the Airwaves: The Contest for Broadband pcs Spectrum

The House and Senate of the United States Congress recently passed legislation that directs the FCC to establish a system for using auctions to allocate the use of radio spectrum for personal communications services. There is a unique and unprecedented set of issues that arise in this context, which are of interest to economists, industry analysts, regulators, and policymakers. We discuss these issues and evaluate their likely impact on the outcome of the spectrum auctions. In addition, we argue that there may be pitfalls in the auction procedure adopted by the FCC, and we discuss possible alternative procedures.     

UNIT MANAGEMENT BUYOUTS, STOCKHOLDER WEALTH, AND SELLING FIRMS' CHARACTERISTICS

Previous research on unit management buyouts, UMBs, has shown that selling firms benefit from the selloff transaction. The current research demonstrates that when the selling firm has either poor liquidity or poor earnings, selling firm shareholders do not benefit as much. We hypothesize that the unit managers have knowledge about the selling firm's difficulties so they do not pay as large a premium for the assets. Since the unit managers technically are employed by the selling firm shareholders, their bargaining to achieve a better price is an agency cost. Finally, selloff frequency does not affect seller abnormal returns.     

The impact of a shift in organizational role on ethical perceptions: A comparative study

This study investigates ethical decision-making by considering the differences in ethical judgments between undergraduate business and MBA students on selected ethical issues facing employees and managers of today's businesses. The study further investigates differences in ethical judgments between undergraduates and MBAs in terms of a perceived position as an employee or as a manager. The findings indicate that undergraduate students tend to be more ethical than MBA students and that both groups tend to be more ethical when they perceive themselves as managers rather than employees. The authors discuss the implications for both business practitioners and educators.Shohreh A. Kaynama is Associate Professor of Marketing in the School of Business and Economics at Towson State University in Baltimore, Maryland. She earned a Ph.D. in Marketing and the Decision Sciences. Dr. Kaynama has published extensively in numerous National and International proceedings. Her area of research is strategic marketing, consumer behavior, applications of computers and decision sciences in marketing and global marketing. Louise W. Smith is Professor of Marketing in the School of Business and Economics at Towson State University in Baltimore, Maryland. Dr. Smith's main professional interest is consumer behavior. Dr. Smith's articles have appeared in the Journal of Public Policy & Marketing, Journal of Health Care Marketing, Journal of Marketing Education, Journal of Services Marketing, and Journal of Consumer Marketing among others. Algin B. King is Professor of Marketing in the School of Business and Economics at Towson State University in Baltimore, Maryland. He has served on the Faculties of seven universities, publishing numerous articles in National Professional Meetings Proceedings and scholarly journals including Journal of Euro-Marketing, Atlantic Economic Journal. In addition he has served as a business consultant to numerous business firms.     

VAR,ERROR CORRECTION AND PRETEST FORECASTS AT LONG HORIZONS

This paper focuses on the construction of forecasts over long horizons where a typical long-horizon forecast might span four years using 20 to 40 years’ data. It is argued that the presence of persistence in the form of unit or near-unit autoregressive roots poses substantial difficulties for long-horizon interval and point forecasting. These difficulties may not be overcome even by efficient pre-testing or model-selection procedures and might, in general, lead to point forecasts with large asymptotic root mean squared errors and undesirably wide prediction intervals.