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51.
We point out that fiscal multipliers derived from SVAR-models include the predicted future path of policy instruments. After the initial shock, net taxes and government expenditures react to each other and are autocorrelated. In a counterfactual simulation, we report fiscal multipliers that abstract from these dynamic responses. 相似文献
52.
Dick van Dijk Siem Jan Koopman Michel van der Wel Jonathan H. Wright 《Journal of Applied Econometrics》2014,29(5):693-712
We consider forecasting the term structure of interest rates with the assumption that factors driving the yield curve are stationary around a slowly time‐varying mean or ‘shifting endpoint’. The shifting endpoints are captured using either (i) time series methods (exponential smoothing) or (ii) long‐range survey forecasts of either interest rates or inflation and output growth, or (iii) exponentially smoothed realizations of these macro variables. Allowing for shifting endpoints in yield curve factors provides substantial and significant gains in out‐of‐sample predictive accuracy, relative to stationary and random walk benchmarks. Forecast improvements are largest for long‐maturity interest rates and for long‐horizon forecasts. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
53.
54.
Neil Buckley Kenneth S. Chan James Chowhan Stuart Mestelman Mohamed Shehata 《Experimental Economics》2001,4(2):183-195
Identifying the value orientations of subjects participating in market or non-market decisions by having them participate in a ring game may be helpful in understanding the behaviour of these subjects. This experiment presents the results of changes in the centre and the radius of a value orientations ring in an attempt to discover if the measured value orientations exhibit income or displacement effects. Neither significant income effects nor displacement effects are identified. An external validity check with a voluntary contribution game provides evidence that value orientations from rings centred around the origin of the decision-space explain significant portions of voluntary contributions while value orientations from displaced rings do not. 相似文献
55.
The Tipping Point of Design: How Product Design and Brands Interact to Affect Consumers’ Preferences
Existing research on product design has demonstrated the importance of aesthetics in generating favorable consumer responses. However, the literature has only recently begun to explore if and to what extent the impact of product design is influenced by brand strength. Whereas some research indicates that strong brands may benefit less strongly from aesthetically attractive designs, other research suggests that attractive designs are more persuasive when they are paired with a strong brand. In this research, these two competing predictions were tested through three studies with German car buyers. In Study 1, participants were exposed to a fictitious car that was paired with a randomly chosen brand name. In Study 2, participants were presented with a set of existing cars and were asked to choose one. Both studies yield converging evidence and show that product design and brands interact in a positive fashion, suggesting that attractive designs exert a greater influence on consumers’ decision processes when they are accompanied by a strong brand. Study 3 extended these findings by demonstrating that strong brands only increase the impact of attractive designs when perceived risk is high but not when it is low. 相似文献
56.
Swedish emigration rates were among the highest in Europe in the late nineteenth century. The majority of the emigrants originated from the countryside. In the article the determinants of emigration from the Swedish countryside to the United States are explored using panel regression methods on a newly constructed dataset consisting of yearly observations for 20 counties over the period 1881–1910. Amidst sharp fluctuations the emigration rate declined over the long term, which is explained by a rise in the standard of living and improved employment opportunities at home. Persistent regional differences in the emigration rate are explained by regional differences in population density and emigration tradition. 相似文献
57.
Fbio Dias Duarte Ana Paula Matias Gama Mohamed Azzim Gulamhussen 《European Financial Management》2020,26(3):628-683
We relate credit risk and owners’ personal guarantees to bank loan maturities during the global financial crisis. The findings, which remain robust to reverse causality, show that firms rated as low risk, with a strong relationship with the bank, whose owners provided personal guarantees and with large loan sizes obtained longer maturities. Banks with larger nonperforming loans provided loans with shorter maturities. Firms with low‐ and high‐risk ratings that provided owners’ personal guarantees obtained longer maturities. These findings shed additional light on the relationship between risk and loan maturities and the role of personal guarantees in reducing information asymmetries. 相似文献
58.
A simple endogenous growth model is developed to characterize credit rationing through the capital accumulation process. The model shows that credit rationing on investment loans decreases as capital accumulates and the enforcement cost decreases. We find that the evolution of the interest rate factor (lending interest rate/depositing interest rate) has a similar pattern to the credit rationing probability. However, simulations show that the evolution of the interest rate spread through the capital accumulation process depends on the degree of the enforcement cost. In the empirical part of the paper, we consider fifty-two countries, at different stages of development, over the period 1995–2005. We confirm the theoretical findings relative to the evolution of the interest rate spread and interest rate factor with capital accumulation. These results suggest that, for economies endowed with costly contract enforcement, the interest rate factor could be a better proxy of credit rationing than the interest rate spread. 相似文献
59.
Theories of financial frictions in international capital markets suggest that financial intermediaries' balance sheet constraints amplify fundamental shocks. We present empirical evidence for such theories by decomposing the U.S. dollar risk premium into components associated with macroeconomic fundamentals, and a component associated with financial intermediary balance sheets. Relative to the benchmark model with only macroeconomic state variables, balance sheets amplify the U.S. dollar risk premium. We discuss applications to financial stability monitoring. 相似文献
60.
Social media? Get serious! Understanding the functional building blocks of social media 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Jan H. Kietzmann Kristopher Hermkens Ian P. McCarthy Bruno S. Silvestre 《Business Horizons》2011,(3):156
Traditionally, consumers used the Internet to simply expend content: they read it, they watched it, and they used it to buy products and services. Increasingly, however, consumers are utilizing platforms—such as content sharing sites, blogs, social networking, and wikis—to create, modify, share, and discuss Internet content. This represents the social media phenomenon, which can now significantly impact a firm's reputation, sales, and even survival. Yet, many executives eschew or ignore this form of media because they don’t understand what it is, the various forms it can take, and how to engage with it and learn. In response, we present a framework that defines social media by using seven functional building blocks: identity, conversations, sharing, presence, relationships, reputation, and groups. As different social media activities are defined by the extent to which they focus on some or all of these blocks, we explain the implications that each block can have for how firms should engage with social media. To conclude, we present a number of recommendations regarding how firms should develop strategies for monitoring, understanding, and responding to different social media activities. 相似文献