Prospect Theory in the Heterogeneous Agent Model

Using the Heterogeneous Agent Model framework, we incorporate an extension based on Prospect Theory into a popular agent-based asset pricing model. This extension covers the phenomenon of loss aversion manifested in risk aversion and asymmetric treatment of gains and losses. Using Monte Carlo methods, we investigate behavior and statistical properties of the extended model and assess how our extension is manifested in different strategies. We show that, on the one hand, the Prospect Theory extension keeps the essential underlying mechanics of the model intact, but on the other hand it considerably changes the model dynamics. Stability of the model is increased and fundamentalists may be able to survive in the market more easily. When only the fundamentalists are loss-averse, other strategies profit more.

     

Disentangling types of liquidity and testing limits-to-arbitrage theories in the CDS–bond basis

We disentangle asset-specific, market, and funding liquidity in the CDS–bond basis outside and during the 2007–9 global financial crisis. Our findings stress the importance of separating different types of liquidity, since all three measures have independently negative impacts on the basis. Funding liquidity emerges as the economically most important liquidity metric. While asset-specific liquidity is cross-correlated in both the cash and derivative markets, funding and market liquidity only matter for the cash market. We exploit the decomposition of the basis to test predictions of limits-to-arbitrage theories. We find strong evidence in favor of margin-based asset pricing and flight-to-quality effects.     

Fetal Iodine Deficiency and Schooling: A Replication of Field,Robles, and Torero (2009)*

Scholars have theorized that congenital health endowment is an important determinant of economic outcomes later in a person's life. Field, Robles, and Torero (2009, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 1, 140–169) find large increases in educational attainment caused by a reduction of fetal iodine deficiency following a set of iodine supplementation programs in Tanzania. We revisit the Tanzanian iodine programs with a narrow and wide replication of the study by Field et al. We are able to exactly replicate the original results. We find, however, that the findings are sensitive to alternative specification choices and sample restrictions. We try to address some of these concerns in the wide replication; we increase the sample size fourfold, and we improve the precision of the treatment variable by incorporating new institutional and medical insights. Despite the improvements, no effect is found. We conclude that the available data do not provide sufficient power to detect a possible effect, as treatment assignment cannot be measured with sufficient precision.     

A unified framework for robust modelling of financial markets in discrete time

Finance and Stochastics - We unify and establish equivalence between the pathwise and the quasi-sure approaches to robust modelling of financial markets in finite discrete time. In particular, we...     

Human capital inequality and income inequality: testing for causality

This study investigates the causal relationship between human capital inequality and income inequality in case of Pakistan. The annual time series data ranging from 1973 to 2009 is used for econometric analysis. Johanson co-integration and Granger Causality tests are used to confirm the existence of long run relationship and the causal relationship between human capital inequality and income inequality. The results indicate that there is positive relationship between the two types of inequalities in the long run. The estimates of causality test indicate that income inequality causes the human capital inequality but human capital inequality does not cause income inequality. Policy initiatives to reduce income inequality may empower people economically to avail skill building opportunities and accumulate their human capital through access to educational services.     

Trust relations in management of change

Trust is essential for the success of change, but transformational change challenges trust. This paper analyses how trust dynamics develop over time in two Danish manufacturing firms affected by major change programmes. The results show that change creates uncertainty among employees, thereby provoking intense scrutiny of management intentions and a tendency to make interpretations that exaggerate management intentions—with the end result of reduced trust. Management then react similarly with negative interpretations of employee reactions, creating a vicious cycle of reduced trust. The paper proposes a model for how change and trust interact and suggests a managerial strategy for trust repair: Strong management actions that symbolise integrity, competence and benevolence may counteract reduced trust, but if low trust turns into distrust, the result may be a deadlock that both parties find difficult to break.