Instrumental variable estimation based on grouped data

The paper considers the estimation of the coefficients of a single equation in the presence of dummy intruments. We derive pseudo ML and GMM estimators based on moment restrictions induced either by the structural form or by the reduced form of the model. The performance of the estimators is evaluated for the non-Gaussian case. We allow for heteroscedasticity. The asymptotic distributions are based on parameter sequences where the number of instruments increases at the same rate as the sample size. Relaxing the usual Gaussian assumption is shown to affect the normal asymptotic distributions. As a result also recently suggested new specification tests for the validity of instruments depend on Gaussianity. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the accuracy of the asymptotic approach.     

Flexibility at different stages in the life cycle of projects: An empirical illustration of the “freedom to maneuver”

Many textbooks on project management present illustrations concerning the relative size of project attributes during different project phases. The derived models all have attributes in common, such as uncertainty, significance of decisions, and degree of freedom to maneuver, that are typically high in the beginning of the project and low in the end. At the same time, variables such as the accumulated cost and available information begin at low levels and end up at a high level at the end of the project. Based on empirical data from projects, this paper illustrates and quantifies one of these attributes, the freedom to maneuver, in different project phases.     

International parity relationships between Germany and the USA revisited: evidence from the post-DM period

In this study, we show the interrelation of the purchasing power parity and the uncovered interest rate parity between the US and Germany for the recent period running from 1999:01 to 2014:04. This study extends the literature by testing both hypotheses simultaneously in a multivariate ECM. This has the advantage that interactions between capital and goods markets can be considered simultaneously. Our finding of two long-run relationships between the variables shows that a disequilibrium in one of the two markets leads to a disequilibrium in the other. While analysing the reaction to cumulative shocks, we show that US variables have a greater impact on German variables than vice versa. Therefore, the rising importance of the euro and the increased integration of the European Union in the recent decade have not changed this relation.     

Nanobiomedical science in China: a research field on the rise

Medical and health care applications of nanotechnology have increasingly attracted research and innovation attention. Nano-biomedical science (NBMS) is a term we use to define this emerging domain. As China is one of the leading countries in nanotechnology, but lacks a long history as a biosciences leader, this paper explores the competitive positioning of China in the development of NBMS. Specifically, this paper profiles the research patterns of Chinese NBMS in comparison with the four other largest countries in NBMS, using bibliometric techniques. The results indicate that China is a leader in NBMS, leveraging its strengths in chemistry and physics in the broader nanotechnology domain. However, China's relative weakness in traditional biomedical disciplines, and its lack of presence in highly influential global journals, could prove to be limiting factors.     

Pathways from discovery to commercialisation: using web sources to track small and medium-sized enterprise strategies in emerging nanotechnologies

This paper presents results from a pilot study of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) based on a web-scraping and content analysis of current and archived nanotechnology enterprise websites. We use this approach to explore nanotechnology SMEs transitions from discovery to commercialisation and understand how transitions vary by SME characteristics, technology and market sectors. Our findings suggest that although the idealised linear innovation model is present, important instances of divergence exist. Cluster analysis uncovered sectoral differences but even more distinctions based on the age, funding source, and research intensity.     

A Nobel Prize for the Empirical Analysis of Asset Prices

Abstract

The 2013 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics was awarded to Eugene Fama, Robert Shiller, and Lars Peter Hansen for their empirical analysis of asset prices. The paper reviews critically the work of the three economists and highlights the differing conclusions that the three researchers reached on the relatively narrow question of the rationality of individual investors. The paper argues that there is a time inconsistency in the idea that markets reveal information about the future and concludes that, despite the sophistication of their statistical analysis, the laureates have been unable to demonstrate how a sophisticated financial economy can produce their empirical results.     

A model of attrition and income for dynamic longitudinal surveys

This paper develops a random effects model of attrition and income applicable to a dynamic longitudinal survey such as the Survey of Income and Program Participation. Based on the partial dynamic adjustment hypothsis, this study finds that the speed of adjustment of income is not instantaneous as suggeted in many past studies using annual panel data. Also, the short-run coefficients are much smaller than their long-run counterparts, and the coefficient estimates differ substantially among individuals with divergent socioeconomic characteristics. Caution should therefore be exercised when applying dynamic panel data to models with the assumption of an instantaneous speed of adjustment.     

Measuring inflation expectations: a survey data approach

Measures of expected inflation from consumer surveys are derived using a modification of the Carlson-Parkin probability approach, which does not assume unbiasedness of expectations, makes use of survey data on expected future as well as perceived past price developments and allows for time varying response thresholds. We apply this method to the normal, central-t and noncentral-t distributions, thereby investigating the effects of nonnormal peakedness and asymmetry. We find that the effects on expected inflation of the former are small and of the latter are substantial, without increasing the accuracy of the expectations, however. Expected and actual inflation show substantial persistence, and, for most of our expectations measures, are cointegrated. Furthermore, the forecast error is stationary, implying weak-form rationality. The co-movement of currently observed expected inflation measures and the unobserved 12-months-ahead inflation rate is of interest for policy makers, for example in the direct inflation targeting strategy. Notwithstanding this, caution is warranted in using them as information variables because the inflation expected by consumers is no causal determinant of actual future inflation.