Mitigating America's demographic dilemma by pre-funding social security

Financing Social Security benefits at current levels implies significant increases in payroll taxes within the next 20 years under current US demographic developments. Using a general-equilibrium overlapping-generations model with realistic patterns of fertility and lifespan extension, this study shows that future generations would be harmed during the demographic transition due to rising payroll taxes, which crowd out savings and slow real wage growth below the rate of technological progress. A faster rate of technological progress would mitigate only some of the payroll tax increase and its economic consequences but could not overcome them. Addressing the financing problem by reducing Social Security benefits as needed or by raising the eligibility age for benefits imposes major welfare losses on current or near term retirees. By contrast, a pre-funding of Social Security financed with consumption taxes more evenly spreads the welfare losses across generations, and it helps future generations, especially the poor, by stimulating capital formation.     

Wird der vom Regierungsentwurf eines VVG geplante Direktanspruch des Geschädigten gegen den Pflichthaftpflichtversicherer ein stumpfes Schwert? Zur Notwendigkeit eines Informationsanspruchs des Geschädigten in der neuen Pflichthaftpflichtversicherung

The amendment of the German Act on Insurance Contracts comprises a number of substantial modifications regarding liability insurance. The most important modification is the introduction of a direct claim against the insurer with regard to all compulsory insurances. Such a direct claim is up to now only known from the motor vehicle liability insurance. Yet, a direct claim will be advantageous for the aggrieved claimant only if he manages to identify the proper insurer. As a result of the structural differences to the motor vehicle liability insurance the act of identifying the insurer is almost utterly impossible for the claimant without any help by the insured. Thus the claimant must also be given a claim against the insured to be furnished with all necessary information regarding the insurer. This right originates from sec. 242 of the German Civil Code.     

Pricing Asian options in a semimartingale model

In this paper we studyy arithmetic Asian options when the underlying stock is driven by special semimartingale processes. We show that the inherently path dependent problem of pricing Asian options can be transformed into a problem without path dependence in the payoff function. We also show that the price is driven by a process with independent increments, Levy processes being a special case. This approach applies for both discretely or continuously options.     

THE NUMÉRAIRE PROPERTY AND LONG‐TERM GROWTH OPTIMALITY FOR DRAWDOWN‐CONSTRAINED INVESTMENTS

We consider the portfolio choice problem for a long‐run investor in a general continuous semimartingale model. We combine the decision criterion of pathwise growth optimality with a flexible specification of attitude toward risk, encoded by a linear drawdown constraint imposed on admissible wealth processes. We define the constrained numéraire property through the notion of expected relative return and prove that drawdown‐constrained numéraire portfolio exists and is unique, but may depend on the investment horizon. However, when sampled at the times of its maximum and asymptotically as the time‐horizon becomes distant, the drawdown‐constrained numéraire portfolio is given explicitly through a model‐independent transformation of the unconstrained numéraire portfolio. The asymptotically growth‐optimal strategy is obtained as limit of numéraire strategies on finite horizons.     

Real call options to enlarge foreign subsidiaries – The moderating effect of irreversibility on the influence of economic volatility and political instability on subsequent FDI

This paper develops a real option model to explain the decision of enlarging a new foreign subsidiary by subsequent investment. The model is tested on a panel of 1148 subsidiaries in 22 host countries. The findings complement the traditional process model of firm internationalization. Rather than abiding by an incremental pattern of investment, internationalizing firms seem to keep foreign investment strategies flexible and build up their subsidiaries contingent upon the interaction of economic volatility and irreversibility of investment. However, the moderating effect of irreversibility on the relationship between uncertainty and investment may not hold for downside risks such as political instability.     

Munificence of Parent Corporate Contexts and Expatriate Cross-Cultural Training in China

The practice of providing expatriates with cross-cultural training varies widely among business corporations. To examine the proposition that some characteristics of the parent corporation context could be munificent to the practice of providing cross-cultural training, a mail survey was addressed to business expatriates in China. Surprisingly, the results showed no association between corporate size, international stake, and international experience on the one hand and the extent to which the expatriates had received cross-cultural training on the other hand. Although an ad hoc analysis found a positive relationship between international experience and the provision of sequential cross-cultural training, there was no association between any of the variables depicting corporate context and predeparture or postarrival training. The findings and their implications are discussed in detail.     

Estimating a Local Food Waste Baseline

ABSTRACT

This article estimates the amounts of food that is discarded, diverted, and landfilled in Minnesota by comparing and applying approaches and statistics from selected national, regional, and local studies. Our preferred estimates suggest 2.1 million tons of food is discarded in Minnesota, of which 60% is diverted through recovery and recycling efforts. The remaining 834 thousand tons are landfilled. This landfilled amount, considered as “food waste,” is smaller than the 1.3 million tons calculated using the ReFED (2016) methods, but its estimated distribution across the food supply chain is similar. Residential losses account for the largest proportion of food waste landfilled (43%). The processing and manufacturing stage discards the largest proportion of food (36%), but generates the smallest amount landfilled because of a high diversion factor. The range of estimates obtained from various methods highlights the complexities in choosing appropriate assumptions, factors, and datasets when calculating food waste baseline amounts.     

Financial amplification of foreign exchange risk premia

Theories of financial frictions in international capital markets suggest that financial intermediaries' balance sheet constraints amplify fundamental shocks. We present empirical evidence for such theories by decomposing the U.S. dollar risk premium into components associated with macroeconomic fundamentals, and a component associated with financial intermediary balance sheets. Relative to the benchmark model with only macroeconomic state variables, balance sheets amplify the U.S. dollar risk premium. We discuss applications to financial stability monitoring.     

USING HAPPINESS DATA FOR ENVIRONMENTAL VALUATION: ISSUES AND APPLICATIONS

Abstract.  In addition to standard methods of environmental valuation, a novel approach has recently emerged which models individuals' self-rated happiness as a function of their incomes and the prevailing environmental conditions. The estimated relationship is used to calculate the trade-off people would be willing to make between income and environmental conditions, i.e. the increase in income necessary to compensate individuals for any given decline in environmental quality. While the basic idea is simple, the theoretical and empirical details may be complex, and they may vary from application to application. This paper discusses the relevant conceptual and methodological issues and reviews applications to air and water pollution, noise nuisance, climate parameters, and natural hazards.