Performance of French intensive care units: A directional distance function approach at the patient level

By using a novel adaptation of the free-disposable hull analysis of productivity, we assess the medical and technical efficiency of patient care in 25 Parisian intensive care units (ICUs) during 2000. The robust free disposable hull (RFDH) as defined by [Cazals et al., 2002. Nonparametric frontier estimation: a robust approach. Journal of Econometrics 106, 1–25] reduces the impact outliers may have on findings by employing Monte-Carlo techniques and repeated sample selection. Among our key findings, there was no overall significant correlation between medical and technical efficiencies for all the ICUs, therefore performing well in one does not guarantee good performance in the other. We also found that over 80% of inefficiency is concentrated in less than 20% of the sampled patients.     

Forecasting with an econometric model: Some recent results using the national institute model

It is widely believed that the large econometric models cannot be used for forecasting without considerable intervention on the part of the forecaster. In this paper we challenge this view by reproducing a number of recent forecasts published by the National Institute but without the ad hoc interventions used at the time. We show that in no case would the forecast, produced by the model used mechanically, have been radically different from that actually published. Further, in an ex-post comparison against actual out-turns, the mechanical model forecast is not obviously dominated by the published version.