中国宏观经济形势与政策:2009—2010年

本文依据中国经济增长与价格形成理论模型以及CMAFM计量模型,分析与预测2009—2010年间中国经济在积极财政政策和适度宽松货币政策支持下的复苏过程。本文认为,中国需求管理应该继续采取扩张性政策取向,完成中国经济景气从萧条到繁荣的周期形态转换,并且与中国经济发展的高储蓄—高投资—高增长模式相适应,形成以促进国内投资需求为轴心的政策架构。     

一月份福建经济形势分析

今年1月份在福建省委、省政府坚强领导下,全省国民经济继续保持企稳向好势头。面对国际经济增长不稳定和中央适度收紧银根等因素对本省经济发展的影响,要坚持以胡锦涛总书记视察福建为动力,大力推进经济发展方式转变,保持经济平稳较快发展,促进海峡西岸经济区建设取得新的更大成就。     

迈向双循环新发展格局的中国宏观经济——2020-2021年中国宏观经济报告

中国宏观经济;十九届五中全会;双循环新发展格局;经济复苏;十四五规划     

我国证券市场风险收益特征的行为基础

我国证券市场的风险收益具有以下特征:(1)资本资产定价模型所揭示的风险收益关系在我国股市并不显著。(2)我国证券市场系统性风险占整体风险的比例较高。(3)从趋势上看,无论个股还是行业系统性风险占整体风险的指标没有明显的下降趋势。这些特征根源于我国特定的投资者结构以及不同投资者的风险厌恶特性和对私人信息的偏好特性。因此,投资者应针对上述特征,在集中投资、反向交易和降低交易频率等方面调整交易策略,提高投资收益率。     

高耗能产业循环经济的指标体系构建

高耗能产业是循环经济建设的重点领域,但在循环经济指标体系方面还有待于系统和深入的研究。从综合绩效（经济绩效、环境绩效和社会绩效）的角度建立高耗能产业的循环经济指标体系是一个新的视角,具有层次分明、结构紧凑、可操作性强的优势。本文构建了高耗能循环经济的指标体系,并进行了实证分析。     

我国住房抵押贷款支持证券的久期测度研究

本文在研究久期测度理论的基础上,归纳了国外通行的住房抵押贷款支持证券的久期测度方法。结合我国当前金融市场现状,对通行的久期测度方法进行了修正,为我国机构投资者选择适当的住房抵押贷款支持证券的久期测度方法提出了建议。     

物流业网络融合的三种模式与创新

本文从产业融合和供应链管理理论出发,研究物流业的网络融合及其创新。本文分析现代物流业的网络特性,阐述了物流业网络融合的内涵,指出了现代物流业网络融合的3种主要形式。对现代物流业网络融合的创新进行研究,指出网络融合对于发展物流业以及提升企业核心能力的意义。     

A true simulation study of three estimators at equal protection of respondents in randomized response sampling

In this study, three different estimators for estimating the proportion of a sensitive attribute in survey sampling are compared at equal protection of the respondents. The three estimators considered are due to Odumade and Singh (2009, Comm. Statist. Theory Methods) , Singh and Sedory (2011, Sociological Methods and Research) and a new estimator obtained by minimizing a chi‐squared distance. A SAS Macro is developed to compare these three estimators using a simulation study at equal protection of the respondents. A set of data from a real face‐to‐face interview was collected using two decks of cards and has been analyzed. The results are discussed.     

世界石油市场十年回顾与展望

过去10年,国际石油市场剧烈动荡,油价大起大落。全球经济经历了时间长于以往的扩张期,新兴国家的石油需求迅猛增长,亚太地区吸引了越来越多的石油资源。油价上涨在表现出明显的"需求驱动"特征的同时,其影响因素也呈复杂化和多元化的趋势。由于上游投资不足,供需基本面出现严重的紧平衡。在经历了2008年的金融危机之后,随着经济刺激计划的实施以及世界经济的逐步复苏,全球经济将迎来又一轮的景气周期。展望未来,发展中国家的石油需求量有望在近年超过发达国家,全球需求和贸易重心东移的势头更加明显;石油供应日益集中在少数国家,其潜在的政治风险将带来供应增长的不确定性。石油的概念将发生演变,并扩展至天然气凝析液、生物燃料、天然气合成油和煤制油等,导致整体石油品质变轻以及中间馏分油供需矛盾加剧。油价总体水平将继续走高,但由于金融监管加强,油价的大幅异常波动可能会受到抑制。未来油价底限取决于石油边际成本,上限取决于替代能源成本;油价本身的变动最终取决于剩余产能以及供需面。     

Does salesperson's customer orientation create value in B2B relationships? Empirical evidence from India

Although value creation in business relationships has taken an important position in the literature, yet scant attention has been paid to the precise nature of creation or destruction of value in b2b customer-oriented selling. Moreover, very few empirical studies in the b2b customer value research have focused on emerging markets, especially the BRIC countries. This study carried out in the context of small and medium sized firms in India, empirically examines from the SOCO perspective (Saxe and Weitz, 1982), value creation in customer-oriented selling, and value destruction in sales-oriented strategies. We model value creation, relationship development, and customer satisfaction as direct and indirect consequences of salesperson's customer orientation. Based on a sample of 249 small and medium sized Indian firms, we show that salesperson's customer orientation directly leads to value creation and relationship development with customers. On the other hand, a sales orientation destroys value, although it may lead to relationship development in the short-term. We also found that customer satisfaction was unrelated to both types of salesperson's orientations. Our study has considerable impact for small and medium sized businesses in emerging BRIC markets such as India, as it throws light on how supplier firms can leverage their salesforce to create value creation with their customers.