油价冲击、政治制度与资源国有化决策——基于1960-2010年数据的实证分析

在能源和矿产领域,全球资源国有化的趋势和浪潮进一步加强。在拉丁美洲地区,新一轮的国有化运动出现了多米诺骨牌效应。资源国有化使国际能源地缘政治较量更加激烈,也大大增加了投资方在国际油气合作过程中的获利风险,这就使得中国能源战略面临着极大的挑战。作者综合考虑了油价和资源国政治制度等因素,以1960-2010年石油行业发生国有化进程的41个资源国为样本建立面板逻辑回归模型,对资源国国有化进程内在机理机制展开实证研究。研究结果表明,油价冲击和资源国的民主化程度对国有化概率有显著影响。油价正向偏离其长期趋势的程度越高,资源国就越可能发生国有化进程;同时,政治制度的民主化程度与国有化发生概率呈显著负相关的关系,资源国民主化程度越低越可能发生国有化进程。因此,对于正处于"走出去"阶段的中国企业来说,企业在选择投资目标时要警惕在高油价冲击时期资源国发生再次国有化,并谨慎对待在民主化程度落后地区的投资,建立有效的预警和应对机制。     

公共财政支出的公平性及其审计监管：历史和现实

探索我国公共财政支出的公平性及其审计监管,有利于解决我国经济和社会发展中的突出难题,推进公平正义,弘扬中国特色社会主义的时代主题.文章回顾和评述了相关中外史料和文献,探讨了公共财政支出的公平性及其审计监管的内容设定和机制安排,并进一步探讨了其审计监管的保障机制.     

中国经济国民投资率的福利经济学分析

本文首次系统地从福利经济学角度出发,运用前沿计算方法,试图回答中国投资率是否过高这一重要问题。本文首先计算了两个投资率:一是境内投资率;二是国民投资率,即(境内投资+对外投资)/GDP。通过横向的对比,发现无论是境内投资率还是国民投资率,即便考虑高经济增长率,中国经济都远高于世界各国。其次,采用经济增长理论的基准模型,利用中国的参数进行校准,并且进行稳健性检验,运用逆向积分法模拟中国经济福利最大化的投资路径。结果表明,中国经济上世纪90年代平均境内投资率低于福利最大化的投资率6%,国民投资率4%;2002年后,平均境内投资高于福利最大化的投资率5%,国民投资率12%;1990—2008年实际投资相对福利最大化的投资路径总福利损失约为5.9%,相当于每期损失约3.8%的GDP。最后,本文进一步分析,如果适当地降低国民投资率,同时改善投资效率,中国经济的GDP增长率并不会大幅下降。     

我国城乡通货膨胀的趋同演化及影响因素

本文基于一价定律和我国的经济转型背景,针对城乡通胀的数据演化特征,设定内生性结构突变的平滑机制转移模型,以此检验我国城乡通胀的趋同性及其非线性调节特征,揭示我国城乡商品市场分割与整合的演化进程。结果表明:(1)我国城乡通胀差是在1994年发生结构变化的平稳过程,平稳性表明我国城乡通胀具有趋同性,城乡商品市场整体呈现一体化特征。(2)1994年前,我国城乡商品市场分割程度较大,城乡商品流通的非套利区间较宽,城乡通胀差向均衡的回调速度较快;1994年后,城乡商品流通的非套利区间较小,城乡商品市场整合程度进一步深化,城乡通胀差向均衡的回调速度较慢。(3)城乡商品流通的运输成本、信息成本和贸易壁垒等因素较好地解释了1994年后城乡通货膨胀的趋同演化。本文结果说明,城乡二元结构的逐步消除和我国近期所实施的推动城乡经济协调发展的政策,显著促进了城乡经济一体化。     

2011年个人所得税改革的收入再分配效应

本文考察2011年9月1日实施的个人所得税改革的收入再分配效应。根据目前我国分项课征的个人所得税征管模式,本文推导出税收的收入再分配效应指数按收入构成的分解方法。根据该分解方法的主要分析结果可概括为两点:其一,平均税率的高低是个税收入分配效应大小的主要决定因素,累进性则是次要的。由于平均税率的降低,本次税收改革弱化了本来就十分微弱的个人所得税的收入分配效应。其二,我国个人所得税整体累进性指数随工资薪金所得费用扣除的提高呈倒U型。十分巧合的是,本次改革确定的3500元免征额正好处于倒U型的最大值,超过3500元的费用扣除反而会削弱我国个税的累进性。     

When do firms support environmental agreements?

Several firms have recently supported their countries’ participation in international environmental agreements where countries commit to stricter environmental regulation. This paper analyzes the rationale of this conduct by examining equilibrium emission standards with and without environmental treaties. We identify that more stringent environmental regulation produces two effects on firm profits: a negative effect due to larger abatement costs, and a positive effect that arises from the amelioration of duopoly overproduction. We describe under which conditions the positive effect dominates the negative effect, increasing firm profits, and inducing them to support their countries’ participation in environmental treaties.     

Endogenous Fishery Management in a Stochastic Model: Why Do Fishery Agencies Use TACs Along with Fishing Periods?

This paper seeks to explain the circumstances under which using total allowable catch (TAC) as an instrument to manage a fishery along with fishing periods may be of interest from a regulatory point of view. The deterministic analysis by Homans and Wilen (J Environ Econ Manag 32:1?C21, 1997) and Anderson (Ann Oper Res 94:231?C257, 2000) is thus extended to a stochastic scenario where the resource cannot be measured accurately. The resulting model is solved numerically to find the optimal control rules in the Iberian sardine stock. Three relevant conclusions can be highlighted from simulations: first, the greater the uncertainty regarding the state of the stock, the lower the probability of the fishery being closed before the end of the fishing period. Second, the use of TACs as a management instrument in fisheries that are already regulated by fishing periods leads to: (i) an increase in the optimal season length and harvests, especially for medium and high numbers of licences; (ii) improved biological and economic variables when the fleet is large; and (iii) extinction risk for the resource being eliminated. Third, the regulator would rather select the number of licences than restrict the season length.     

低碳城市化:我国城市发展新坐标

本文在论证城市化是人类社会追求物质和精神文明相对低碳的方式这一命题的基础上,指出我国当前高碳城市化发展模式是不可持续的,低碳城市化是我国城市发展的必然选择。本文从城市形态、城市运行模式以及城市产业布局三方面详细阐述实现低碳城市化的路径选择。建议政府多管齐下,推进低碳能源的开发与低碳交通的运行;鼓励低碳技术研发;合理布局产业结构,扶持低碳产业;倡导低碳观念和低碳消费。     

关于银行间外汇市场引入声讯经纪的探讨

2008年10月23日，国家外汇管理局颁布了《货币经纪公司1外汇经纪业务管理暂行办法》。文章结合声讯经纪在外汇市场的主要功能、货币经纪公司的国际监管经验，以及我国货币经纪公司发展现状，对此次《暂行办法》的主要内容进行了解读和探讨。     

Book Reviews

The importance of the automotive industry in the global economy is widely recognised. The sector has undergone enormous changes in order to prepare for the fierce competition of the 21st century. Among these transformations, the most relevant are those technologies developed for the rapid evolution of activities linked to new designs, new products, and new manufacturing processes and systems. Innovative Japanese carmakers have stimulated international performance comparisons in these activities.
International technology alliances may be one way of gaining access to new competitive technologies. Risks and costs associated with new product development can be shared among the partners and more effective use can be made of manufacturing facilities and production capabilities. Sometimes, an alliance agreement may lead to the deployment of new capabilities. However, in spite of this potential, the literature presents the success rate of alliances at less than 50%.
Our study considers two examples of companies that developed international joint ventures (IJVs): Rover with Honda, and Seat with Volkswagen. Since these two European peripheral companies, Rover and Seat, no longer remain as independent firms, we are interested in identifying the reasons leading to the success or failure of these IJVs as regards the New Product Development (NPD) process. In particular, in both cases the paper looks at the problems of the weaker partner becoming increasingly dependent on the other partner and the need for a well-defined strategy to benefit from IJVs.