Market power and efficiency

This paper introduces new measures of the mean and variance of inflation and growth expectations, based on tendency survey data from four major European economies. The expectations measures are technically ‘irrational’, but more accurate than naive alternatives; expectations errors do not persist for more than a year. Unexpected inflation, and uncertainties about inflation and growth, play the roles assigned them by New Classical macroeconomic theory, respectively raising and lowering real activity. All the expectations, uncertainties and errors appear more closely correlated across countries than experience would justify, suggesting that unpredictable disturbances typically have an internal rather than an international origin.     

Asymmetric duopoly and the core

It has recently been proposed that an exchange economy with “small” and “large” traders be represented by a measure space whose atoms represent the set of large traders and whose atomless part represents the set of small traders. For such mixed markets, the equivalence of the core and the set of competitive allocations, which holds when the set of atoms is of measure zero, no longer holds necessarily when this set has positive measure. However, if this set consists of identical traders, the equivalence is restored. The asymptotic analogs of these propositions are proved here.     

Fiscal Policy in Emu: Towards a Sustainability and Growth Pact?

This paper takes stock of the academic and policy discussionson the fiscal institutions of EMU, confronts the framework inplace with what is known of the desirable properties of fiscalpolicy in a monetary union, and discusses possible improvements.We start with a discussion of three requirements for the fiscalframework of a monetary union: it should be conducive to publicfinance sustainability, leave room for stabilization at thenational level, and encourage structural reform. We then examinehow the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) measures up to theserequirements and find that it has mostly failed on all threeaccounts. Whether the 2005 reform of the SGP fixes those deficienciesremains an open issue. To this end, we propose five buildingblocks towards an effective SGP: a better concept of sustainability;harmonized general government balance sheets; appropriate targets;refined procedures; and better institutions. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: benoit.coeure{at}free.fr; jpf{at}bruegel.org     

EVALUATING SOCIAL POLICIES: PRINCIPLES AND U.S. EXPERIENCE

Invariably, studies, proposals, and plans for social programscontain a strong recommendation for evaluation and monitoring.Reliable information about what works and why is clearly vitalfor improving existing programs or designing future ones. Makingsuch assessments requires effective methods of evaluation. Policymakerswho use these evaluations need to know about the methods—the pitfalls to watch for and the relative advantages and disadvantagesof different techniques in different situations. This articledescribes these evaluation methods and the experience accumulatedin the United States in applying them in practice.      

Voting with their feet or activism? Institutional investors’ impact on CEO turnover

We examine the relation between institutional investors and management discipline over the last several decades to better understand how CEO turnover has increased. Using a sample of forced and voluntary turnovers, we investigate the changing roles of activism and exit among institutional investors between 1982-1994 and 1995-2006. We find evidence of activist investors throughout the sample period and their impact is consistently significant in multivariate analysis. In contrast, voting with their feet has declined to the point where it no longer affects turnover outcomes. Nonetheless, activism is fairly uncommon and does not explain the higher turnover observed over time. Block holdings of known activists have increased and are linked to improving target firms. However, other blocks merely reflect the increasing size of institutional money managers. Going forward, the increasing size of institutional investors seems likely to inhibit voting with their feet while activism remains an important vehicle for change.     

Becoming a preferred customer one step at a time

A preferred customer is a buying organization who receives better treatment than other customers from a supplier, in terms of product quality and availability, support in the sourcing process, delivery or/and prices. The decision to become a preferred customer implies a continuous commitment by the purchaser to a complex, expensive and often uncertain process. It is important to use a strategic approach, as well as appropriate tactics. Based on well-known models on the development of buyer-supplier relationship, on customer portfolio analysis and on the emergent literature in customer attractiveness and preferred customer status, we suggest four steps to become – and remain – a preferred customer: initial attraction, performance, engagement and sustainability. The process takes the perspective of a buyer willing to obtain the preferential status and focuses on the strategies and tactics that could influence the supplier's decision of granting this status. The proposed process considers that the supplier is continuously comparing the value offered by the customer to its expectations, and to the value offered by other customer relationships.     

Specialization,diversification, and productivity: a panel data analysis of rice farms in Korea

This article examines the microeconomics of productivity associated with specialization/diversification in production activities, with an application to Korean rice farms. Korean rice farms tend to be very small and highly specialized. Our analysis examines the productivity effects associated with both farm size and farm specialization/diversification in Korean agriculture. Relying on farm‐level panel data, the analysis studies farm productivity in a multi‐input multi‐output context, accounting not only for changes in inputs and technical change in rice production, but also for the role of diversification in the production of other crops in current and previous periods. We find positive but small productivity gains from farm diversification. These gains come mostly from complementarity effects across farm outputs, with minimal effect of scale economies. The positive complementarity effects work against nonconvexity effects, which provide strong productivity incentives for rice farms to specialize.