Decision making for business model development: a process study of effectuation and causation in new technology-based ventures

This study investigates the decision-making logics used by new ventures to develop their business models. In particular, they focussed on the logics of effectuation and causation and how their dynamics shape the development of business models over time. They found that the effectual decision-making logic was used dominantly to generate a viable value proposition for a specific customer segment. Causal logic is then used dominantly to define the other business model components in relation to the value proposition and customer segment. When a shortage of resources emerges, causal logic is replaced by an increase in effectual decision-making again. They concluded that before investing significant resources in a business model it was crucial for firms to reduce, as far as possible, technological and market uncertainty through effectual strategies to avoid high re-configuration costs later.     

Spatial modelling of claim frequency and claim size in non-life insurance

In this paper, models for claim frequency and average claim size in non-life insurance are considered. Both covariates and spatial random effects are included allowing the modelling of a spatial dependency pattern. We assume a Poisson model for the number of claims, while claim size is modelled using a Gamma distribution. However, in contrast to the usual compound Poisson model, we allow for dependencies between claim size and claim frequency. A fully Bayesian approach is followed, parameters are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The issue of model comparison is thoroughly addressed. Besides the deviance information criterion and the predictive model choice criterion, we suggest the use of proper scoring rules based on the posterior predictive distribution for comparing models. We give an application to a comprehensive data set from a German car insurance company. The inclusion of spatial effects significantly improves the models for both claim frequency and claim size, and also leads to more accurate predictions of the total claim sizes. Further, we detect significant dependencies between the number of claims and claim size. Both spatial and number of claims effects are interpreted and quantified from an actuarial point of view.     

On synthesis of judgements

We discuss several conditions which are reasonable to require for functions synthesizing either ratio or measure judgements, (or both) and determine all synthesizing functions satisfying either shorter or longer lists of such assumptions (yielding more general or more specific synthesizing procedures, respectively).     

Why did a majority of French voters reject the European Constitution?

This article assesses the reasons that led a majority of French voters to reject the 29 October 2004 Treaty Establishing a Constitution for Europe. Their reasons are less connected with the Treaty itself than with a fear of loss of national sovereignty, immigration, and relocation of firms to European countries where the workforce is cheaper.     

Estimation in the first-order moving average model through the finite autoregressive approximation: Some asymptotic results

To estimate α in the model y_t = u_t+αu_t?1, we consider a proposal by Durbin (Biometrika, 1969). It consists in fitting an autoregression of order k to the data, and deriving from there an estimate α^. The probability limit and the variance of the limiting normal distribution of α^ are presented and discussed in detail, when the sample size T → ∞, but k remains fixed. The differences between the resulting values and those corresponding to the maximum likelihood estimator are exponentially decreasing functions of k. Several modifications of the estimator are discussed and found consistent, but asymptotically inefficient.     

Wirtschaftslehre der Unternehmung in Hauptgedanken ihrer theoretischen Begründung

Ohne ZusammenfassungGewidmet der Tschechischen Technischen Hochschule in Prag — dieser ältesten öffentlichen ingenieurwissenschaftlichen Schule Europas —zum 250-jährigen Jubiläum (1707 bis 1957) im festen Glauben an eine baldige Vereinigung aller Prager Hochschulen technischer Richtung in das organische Ganzeder Technischen Universität und in der Überzeugung von der Notwendigkeit der wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät als eines unabtrennbaren Bestandteiles dieser Universität.     

Hayek Reads the Literature on the Emergence of Norms

Hayek’s approach to cultural and institutional evolution has been frequently criticized because it is explicitly based on the controversial notion of (cultural) group selection. In this paper this criticism is rejected on the basis of recent works on biological and cultural evolution. The paper’s main contention is that Hayek employed group selection as a tool for the explanation of selection among several equilibria, and not as a vehicle for the emergence of out of equilibrium behavior (i.e., altruism). The paper shows that Hayek’s ideas foreshadowed some of the most promising developments in the current literature on the emergence of norms. JEL Classification: B31, B41     

Aid and Poverty in Africa: Do Well‐being Measures Understate the Progress?

Abstract: In the last 15 years international aid donors to Africa have shifted their focus dramatically toward health and education; the share of social sector support in total aid rose from 33 per cent to 60 per cent from 1990–94 to 2000–2004 alone. If this aid has been effective, it is unlikely to be captured in GDP or income poverty figures. This paper uses the Demographic and Health Survey at multiple points in time to explore changes in well‐being in ten sub‐Saharan African countries. It compares the evolution of both assets and health which are considered as the two main dimensions of well‐being. These dimensions are simultaneously estimated using the structural equation models with latent variables that have been developed in the psychometric literature. The comparisons of well‐being across time in each country are based on the stochastic dominance analysis. The main results suggest that assets and health have improved during the last two decades in most of these countries. A decline in assets is observed for three countries while health deteriorates in two countries. The reduced poverty appears to be explained less by the aid than other factors in most cases.     

Factors influencing purchase intent in virtual worlds: a review of the literature

Previous empirical studies have identified several factors that seem to play a role in determining purchase intent in virtual worlds; three-dimensional online environments in which users interact while represented by their avatars. So far however, a clear overview of these factors is lacking, and the question that remains is what factors affect purchase intent most. Therefore, this study aims to create an overview of factors that influence users’ purchase intent in virtual worlds, and to subsequently identify the most influential factors. To conduct this review, relevant literature was gathered using a variety of search engines and keywords. An article had to explicitly study factors influencing purchase intent in virtual worlds in order to be included in this review. This search method resulted in a selection of twelve relevant articles that were used for further analysis. Results show that perceived enjoyment, social influence, customization and ease of use are important factors that influence purchase intent in virtual worlds. Enjoyment of the virtual world, beliefs and attitudes of others, avatar customization, and easy-to-use virtual world applications can thus increase users’ willingness to purchase products in the virtual world. Practical implications as well as limitations and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Aggregate implications of indivisible labor, incomplete markets, and labor market frictions

We study the impact of tax and transfer programs on steady-state allocations in a model with search frictions, an operative labor supply margin, and incomplete markets. In a benchmark model that has indivisible labor and incomplete markets but no trading frictions we show that the aggregate effects of taxes are identical to those in the economy with employment lotteries, though individual employment and asset dynamics can be different. The effect of frictions on the response of aggregate hours to a permanent tax change is highly nonlinear. There is considerable scope for substitution between “voluntary” and “frictional” nonemployment in some situations.