The quality of market volatility forecasts implied by S&P 100 index option prices

This study examines the performance of the S&P 100 implied volatility as a forecast of future stock market volatility. The results indicate that the implied volatility is an upward biased forecast, but also that it contains relevant information regarding future volatility. The implied volatility dominates the historical volatility rate in terms of ex ante forecasting power, and its forecast error is orthogonal to parameters frequently linked to conditional volatility, including those employed in various ARCH specifications. These findings suggest that a linear model which corrects for the implied volatility's bias can provide a useful market-based estimator of conditional volatility.     

The Limits of Corporate Social Responsibility: Techniques of Neutralization, Stakeholder Management and Political CSR

Since scholarly interest in corporate social responsibility (CSR) has primarily focused on the synergies between social and economic performance, our understanding of how (and the conditions under which) companies use CSR to produce policy outcomes that work against public welfare has remained comparatively underdeveloped. In particular, little is known about how corporate decision-makers privately reconcile the conflicts between public and private interests, even though this is likely to be relevant to understanding the limitations of CSR as a means of aligning business activity with the broader public interest. This study addresses this issue using internal tobacco industry documents to explore British-American Tobacco’s (BAT) thinking on CSR and its effects on the company’s CSR Programme. The article presents a three-stage model of CSR development, based on Sykes and Matza’s theory of techniques of neutralization, which links together: how BAT managers made sense of the company’s declining political authority in the mid-1990s; how they subsequently justified the use of CSR as a tool of stakeholder management aimed at diffusing the political impact of public health advocates by breaking up political constituencies working towards evidence-based tobacco regulation; and how CSR works ideologically to shape stakeholders’ perceptions of the relative merits of competing approaches to tobacco control. Our analysis has three implications for research and practice. First, it underlines the importance of approaching corporate managers’ public comments on CSR critically and situating them in their economic, political and historical contexts. Second, it illustrates the importance of focusing on the political aims and effects of CSR. Third, by showing how CSR practices are used to stymie evidence-based government regulation, the article underlines the importance of highlighting and developing matrices to assess the negative social impacts of CSR.     

Eyes on the prize: How did the fed respond to the stock market?

Since the stock market boom of the 1990s, many have suggested the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has adopted an unannounced policy goal of supporting equity values. This paper offers a new approach to disentangle the relationship between changes in equity values and monetary policy. Specifically, the paper distinguishes the FOMC's reaction to forecasts of traditional goal variables, which may depend on equity prices, from the FOMC's independent reaction to changes in equity prices. By using actual forward-looking variables examined by the FOMC before each action (the “Greenbook” forecasts), the authors find little evidence to support the proposition that the FOMC responds to stock values, except as filtered through a forecast of accepted monetary policy goal variables.     

EFFECT OF FEDERAL RESERVE POLICIES ON BANK EQUITY RETURNS

We investigate the reaction of bank equity returns to changes in the relevant Federal Reserve (Fed) policy tool, which is the federal funds rate during periods of interest rate targeting and the discount rate during periods of reserves targeting. Three policy periods from 1974 to 1996 are investigated. We find that bank equity returns are inversely related to changes in the relevant Fed policy tool and that the degree of sensitivity of bank equity returns is conditioned on the direction of the change in the Fed policy tool. Also, we find that values of larger commercial banks and low‐capital‐ratio commercial banks are more exposed to changes in the relevant Fed policy tool. JEL classification: G11, G12, G14.     

Industry Signals Relayed by Corporate Earnings Restatements

This study finds that downward earnings restatements are associated with negative industry valuation effects. These effects are more pronounced when the valuation effects and the change in earnings of the firm restating its earnings are worse, when the restatement is initiated for reasons other than fraud, when the bubble was bursting, and when the restatement is subsequent to the publicity regarding Enron's fraud. The negative industry effects are more pronounced in industries that have a higher level of accruals and intangible assets, weaker sales growth, and a higher degree of stock volatility.     

The Era of Cross‐Border M&A: How Current Market Dynamics are Changing the M&A Landscape

Rising equity volatility, surging energy prices, a weakening dollar, and widening credit spreads are influencing both tactical financing decisions and long‐term financial strategy. Amid this turbulence is a quickly changing global M&A landscape that portends long‐term opportunities to deliver value to shareholders. In this environment, the authors offer the following suggestions for U.S. multinationals: (1) continue looking overseas for well‐positioned targets, especially in emerging markets, even in the context of a weak U.S. dollar; (2) consider using their financial flexibility for opportunistic deals today now that asset values are contracting; and (3) critically evaluate non‐core assets at home or abroad that might be valuable to cross‐border acquirers. For multinationals in Europe and developing economies, the time may be right to consider transformational cross‐border “megadeals.” Emerging‐market companies have the opportunity to buy low and sell high by using high‐valued equity as an acquisition currency, particularly to gain access to developed markets. Companies in need of new capital should consider the financial and strategic benefits of selling minority stakes to a sovereign wealth fund or other foreign partner.     

Organizational Form Outside the Principal–agent Paradigm

This paper provides a review of theories of hierarchies in organizations where the rationale for hierarchical organization derives from agents’ limited capacities for acquiring and communicating information. In these circumstances, hierarchical organization of agents may serve to reduce the amount of time necessary for completion of production tasks, or to improve the quality of information for decision-making on how to undertake production tasks. An informal discussion of theories of hierarchy is provided as well as a formal presentation of key models and results. Limitations of existing approaches are considered.     

The efficient use of enterprise information for strategic advantage: A data envelopment analysis

A majority of manufacturers make use of some form of enterprise systems (ES), yet on average, the financial impact of ES adoption is essentially neutral. We propose that in an ES environment of easy information access, competitive success depends, in part, on the policies regulating enterprise information use. To explore this proposition, we examine the efficient use of different types of enterprise information in the realization of strategic performance. Efficient firms will devote fewer resources to information use to achieve the same strategic performance as less efficient firms.