What can we learn from a race with one runner? A comment on Foreman‐Peck and Zhou, ‘Late marriage as a contributor to the industrial revolution in England’

Foreman‐Peck and Zhou's claim that late marriage was a major contributor to the industrial revolution in England cannot be sustained. They consider neither other influences on English industrialization nor other European economies where marriage age was high throughout the early modern period but industrialization came much later. It is not possible to argue that late marriage age was a major contributor to English industrialization without analysing other possible contributing factors. Any consideration of this question must assess marriage age alongside other causes of industrialization and explain why other European economies with a higher marriage age industrialized much later than England.     

Unemployment Insurance and the Business Cycle: What Adjustments are Needed?

During the 2007–2011 economic downturn, the duration that one could collect unemployment insurance (UI) in the United States increased to an unprecedented 99 weeks, and the UI benefit amount increased by $25. This article explores the policy of increasing the generosity of UI during recessions using a model that accounts for the insurance and moral hazard implications of UI as well as the program's impact on job creation. When limited to adjusting the duration of benefits, a more generous UI system is optimal. However, due to UI's negative impact on job creation and the increased cost of providing benefits when unemployment is high, the optimal extension is just 1.3 months. When the government adjusts both the benefit amount and its duration, the optimal policy during downturns is a reduction in the replacement rate. This mitigates the decline in job creation and funds a UI extension of 4.3 months.     

Popper and classical liberalism

Popper was not part of the revival of classical liberalism, but many of his ideas have implications for classical liberals. His arguments about the significance of markets as learning mechanisms, about the character of knowledge, about the evaluation of theories in the 'public sphere' and his critique of 'justificationism' are of particular importance.     

Academic freedom,private‐sector focus,and the process of innovation

We develop a model that clarifies the respective advantages and disadvantages of academic and private‐sector research. Rather than relying on lack of appropriability or spillovers to generate a rationale for academic research, we emphasize control‐rights considerations, and argue that the fundamental tradeoff between academia and the private sector is one of creative control versus focus. By serving as a precommitment mechanism that allows scientists to freely pursue their own interests, academia can be indispensable for early‐stage research. At the same time, the private sector's ability to direct scientists toward higher‐payoff activities makes it more attractive for later‐stage research.     

Trading in derivatives when the underlying is scarce

Regulatory restrictions and market frictions can constrain the aggregate quantity of long and short positions in a security. When these constraints bind, we refer to the security as scarce, and its price becomes distorted relative to its value in a frictionless market. We show that an otherwise redundant derivative can reduce the price distortion of the underlying security by relaxing its scarcity. We also show that it is especially important to analyze the underlying and derivative markets jointly when evaluating the impact of regulation, such as short-sales bans and position limits in derivatives, that restricts trade.     

Risk-based forecasting and planning and management earnings forecasts

This study examines the association between a firm’s internal information environment and the accuracy of its externally disclosed management earnings forecasts. Internally, firms use forecasts to plan for uncertain futures. The risk management literature argues that integrating risk-related information into forecasts and plans can improve a firm’s ability to forecast financial outcomes. We investigate whether this internal information manifests itself in the accuracy of external earnings guidance. Using detailed survey data and publicly disclosed management earnings forecasts from a sample of publicly traded U.S. companies, we find that more sophisticated risk-based forecasting and planning processes are associated with smaller earnings forecast errors and narrower forecast widths. These associations hold across a variety of different planning horizons (ranging from annual budgeting to long-term strategic planning), providing empirical support for the theoretical link between internal information quality and the quality of external disclosures.     

Trend/cycle decomposition of regime-switching processes

We present a new approach to trend/cycle decomposition of time series that follow regime-switching processes. The proposed approach, which we label the “regime-dependent steady-state” (RDSS) decomposition, is motivated as the appropriate generalization of the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition [Beveridge, S., Nelson, C.R., 1981. A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the business cycle. Journal of Monetary Economics 7, 151–174] to the setting where the reduced-form dynamics of a given series can be captured by a regime-switching forecasting model. For processes in which the underlying trend component follows a random walk with possibly regime-switching drift, the RDSS decomposition is optimal in a minimum mean-squared-error sense and is more broadly applicable than directly employing an Unobserved Components model.