Measuring large comovements in financial markets

A general, copula-based framework for measuring the dependence among financial time series is presented. Particular emphasis is placed on multivariate conditional Spearman's rho (MCS), a new measure of multivariate conditional dependence that describes the association between large or extreme negative returns—so-called tail dependence. We demonstrate that MCS has a number of advantages over conventional measures of tail dependence, both in theory and in practical applications. In the analysis of univariate financial series, data are filtered to remove temporal dependence as a matter of routine. We show that standard filtering procedures may strongly influence the conclusions drawn concerning tail dependence. We give empirical applications to two large data sets of high-frequency asset returns. Our results have immediate implications for portfolio risk management, derivative pricing and portfolio selection. In this context we address portfolio tail diversification and tail hedging. Amongst other aspects, it is shown that the proposed modeling framework improves the estimation of portfolio risk measures such as the value at risk.     

STRATEGIC INVENTORY OPTIMIZATION

A company's inventory metrics are often viewed as critical indicators of its supply chain performance although inventory costs are only a fraction of total supply chain costs comprised of supplier, manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing costs, as well as inventory costs. Moreover, inventories across the supply chain are dependent on acquisition and distribution decisions. We discuss how simulation and optimization models can be combined to integrate analysis of inventory and supply chain network design decisions in performing a total cost analysis. An application of the models to plans for distributing retail products to an expanding network of stores is reviewed.     

What lessons for economic development can we draw from the Champagne fairs?

The medieval Champagne fairs are widely used to draw lessons about the institutional basis for long-distance impersonal exchange. This paper re-examines the causes of the outstanding success of the Champagne fairs in mediating international trade, the timing and causes of the fairs' decline, and the institutions for securing property rights and enforcing contracts at the fairs. It finds that contract enforcement at the fairs did not take the form of private-order or corporative mechanisms, but was provided by public institutions. More generally, the success and decline of the Champagne fairs depended on the policies adopted by the public authorities — for good or ill.     

The influence of guided preparation on the long-term performance of new ventures

This article further develops a theory of guided preparation and new venture performance and tests its fundamental relationships on a sample of 159 new ventures that received outsider assistance 5–9 years earlier and had been in business for 3–8 years. The results suggest that the long-term growth of the ventures since start-up is significantly related to guided preparation. However, a curvilinear model rather, than a linear model, was found to best capture the relationships of interest. This suggests that there are diminishing marginal returns associated with guided preparation and that too much may even have a negative influence on performance.     

The development of olive tourism in Western Australia: a case study of an emerging tourism industry

The recent development of olive growing in Western Australia, and its amalgamation with tourism and hospitality, provides opportunities for growers to showcase their products and for visitors to experience olive‐tasting and learn about an ancient food culture and rural activity ‘transplanted’ into the ‘New World’ from its ‘Old World’ roots. The present study examines the dimensions of this emerging niche market in Western Australia. Face‐to‐face and telephone interviews were conducted among 23 small olive‐growing operations located in this region to understand their scope for developing olive tourism. Overall, respondents' comments suggest that their involvement in olive tourism and hospitality could substantially provide benefits for visitors to rural areas and become a complementary alternative to other activities. To fulfil this potential, however, growers heavily rely on greater collaboration within their own industry, as well as on local authorities and tourism bodies in ways that include assistance, partnerships and promotion. Moreover, collaboration between olive growers and regional/tourism stakeholders, as well as government support may not only contribute to the sustainability of olive growing, but also to the emergence of olive tourism. In turn, these developments may also help develop a culinary identity and a tourism concept that may help minimise the threats of outside competition (cheaper olive imports) and rural decline. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Organizational Justice and Individuals' Withdrawal: Unlocking the Influence of Emotional Exhaustion

This study examined the relationships between organizational justice and withdrawal outcomes and whether emotional exhaustion was a mediator of these linkages. Data were obtained from 869 military personnel and civil servants; using structural equation modelling techniques, we examined an integrative model that combines justice and stress research. Our findings suggest that individuals' justice perceptions are related to their psychological health. As predicted, emotional exhaustion mediated the linkages between distributive and interpersonal (but not procedural and informational) justice and individuals' withdrawal reactions. Results showed that distributive and interpersonal justice negatively related to emotional exhaustion and emotional exhaustion negatively related to organizational commitment which, in turn, negatively influenced turnover intentions. These findings were observed even when controlling for the presence of contingent‐reward behaviours provided by supervisors and individuals' psychological empowerment.     

The Measurement and Characteristics of Professional Forecasters' Uncertainty

Several statistical issues that arise in the construction and interpretation of measures of uncertainty from forecast surveys that include probability questions are considered, with application to the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. Substantial heterogeneity of individual forecasters' uncertainty is found, together with significant persistence in their relative uncertainty, which is a new finding in professional forecast surveys. It is an individual characteristic akin to the individual optimism and pessimism already established in the literature on point forecasts; the latter is also found in the current dataset, now in a bivariate sense with respect to joint inflation and output growth point forecasts. Whether disagreement among point forecasts is a useful indicator of uncertainty is shown to depend on the underlying macroeconomic environment. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.