Model risk and capital reserves

We propose a procedure to take model risk into account in the computation of capital reserves. This addresses the need to make the allocation of capital reserves to positions in given markets dependent on the extent to which reliable models are available. The proposed procedure can be used in combination with any of the standard risk measures, such as Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall.     

Negative emotions in tourism: a meaningful analysis

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we critically examine the use of (negative) emotions in psychology, consumer behaviour and tourism. We find that (1) negative emotions form an integral part of the tourist experience in certain tourism contexts, particularly in dark tourism and types of travel that involve transformation of the self, (2) negative emotions can have multiple positive outcomes and (3) these positive outcomes are present in hedonic and non-hedonic tourism contexts, yet they occur occasionally in hedonic and more systematically in non-hedonic tourism contexts. We conclude that negative emotions contribute to eudaimonic experiences by affecting different types of meaning in life.     

A way out of the credibility crisis of models used in integrated environmental assessment

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have been widely used in environmental policy making because they simulate natural and socio-economic systems by integrating knowledge derived from a wide range of disciplines. The current IAMs have been found to be limited due to their inability to display both the value-laden nature of the assumptions that underlie the model and the uncertainties in their outputs. A Post-Normal Science approach is required for dealing with these issues, involving participation of ‘extended peer communities’ providing their ‘extended facts’.     

An evolutionary model of energy transitions with interactive innovation-selection dynamics

We develop a stylized application of a new evolutionary model to study an energy transition in electricity production. The framework describes a population of boundedly rational electricity producers who decide each period on the allocation of profits among different energy technologies. They tend to invest in below-average cost energy technologies, while also devoting a small fraction of profits to alternative technological options and research on recombinant innovation. Energy technologies are characterized by costs falling with cumulative investments. Without the latter, new technologies have no chance to become cost competitive. We study the conditions under which a new energy technology emerges and technologies coexist. In addition, we determine which investment heuristics are optimal in the sense of minimizing the total cost of electricity production. This is motivated by the idea that, while diversity contributes to system adaptability (innovation) and resilience to unforeseen contingencies (keeping options open), a high cost will discourage investments in it.     

Determining the environmental effects of indirect subsidies: integrated method and application to the Netherlands

The term ‘environmentally damaging subsidies’ covers all sorts of direct and indirect subsidies with negative consequences for the environment. This article presents a method to determine the environmental impact of these subsidies. It combines a microeconomic framework with an environmental impact module. The method is particularly useful for analysing indirect subsidies. These are often hidden, and therefore, not recognized as subsidies. Use of the method will provide a basis for formulating corrective policy. The method is applied to several important subsidies in the Netherlands, in agriculture, energy and transport sectors. The results reveal large environmental effects, which deserve serious attention from policy makers. To illustrate the specific features of the method, its application to a particular subsidy, namely the exemption of excise taxes on aviation fuels, is presented in full detail.     

Are conservative approaches to new product selling a blessing in disguise?

A new product’s success in the marketplace largely depends on salesforce actions. Many B2B salespeople display conservatism when confronted with new products in their portfolio, such that they maximize their efforts to sell existing products before engaging in efforts to sell the new product. So far, it is unclear whether this conservative selling behavior (CSB) is harmful to new product selling performance, and how this behavior can be managed. Building on perceived risk processing theory, and employing multi-level structural equation modeling on a multi-source dataset, the authors empirically substantiate that salespeople’s CSB makes their effort to sell new products more effective. Remarkably, such effort is then valued less by sales managers. The authors also find that CSB is a result of a risk assessment and evaluation process, in which internal marketing efforts (i.e., providing salespeople with information on the new product) determine the weight of perceived performance risk (i.e., new product radicalness), social risk (i.e., managerial new product orientation), and financial risk (i.e., long-term rewards). Managers looking to control the levels of CSB in their salesforce should carefully align their information support activities with the perceived risk dimensions of the new product selling situation.     

The socio-economic impact of certification schemes in conflict-affected regions: The case of arabica coffee in the Eastern DRC

The paper investigates the benefits of certification of cooperatives in conflict-affected areas. We study whether and how certification may contribute to attenuate the impact of conflicts on the members of coffee cooperatives in the Eastern DRC. We use an inverse probability weighted difference-in-difference approach to study data collected between December 2017 and October 2019 from four NGO-supported cooperatives. Two of these cooperatives got organic certification in 2018, of which one got an additional Small Producers Symbol (SPP) certification in 2018. Certified cooperatives allow Arabica coffee producers to access markets and buffer against drops in market prices. Results indicate that certified cooperatives were better able to resist the international price drop than non-certified cooperatives and the alternative informal markets. The results also suggest that certified cooperative members increased their sales to the cooperative instead of turning to informal side-selling. We find a decrease in reported food deficits by the members of certified cooperatives and an increase in the importance of coffee in their household's income. We conclude that certification is an effective way forward for smallholder coffee producers and cooperatives in unstable regions.     

Complementarity between water pricing, water rights and local water governance: A Bayesian analysis of choice behaviour of farmers in the Krishna river basin, India

To ensure efficient water allocation and use, policy designers have adopted various strategies, including price setting, decentralising irrigation water management or improving water rights. Most of these strategies have been applied individually, without considering the complementary relationships between them. This paper uses a discrete choice model to analyse the scope for combinations of tools for irrigation water demand management and farmers' acceptance of these. In terms of local irrigation water governance, the presence or absence of collective irrigation water management, in the form of a Water Users Association, is considered. Water rights are specified in terms of the duration and quality of the entitlement and its transferability. Finally, four types of water pricing methods (area, crop, block and volumetric pricing) are considered. Using a choice experiment, we elicit the most preferred water pricing method, under different water rights situations, at different price levels and under various contexts for local irrigation water governance. Our results indicated that under conditions of improved water rights, preference for volumetric pricing increases, whilst the presence of a Water Users Association reduces this preference. Furthermore, it was found that using an appropriate combination of water demand management tools considerably increases the willingness to pay for a change in scenario.     

Employees as Active Consumers of HRM: Linking Employees’ HRM Competences with Their Perceptions of HRM Service Value

Recognizing the importance for companies of having high‐quality employment relationships with employees, previous studies have sought to explain the variability in employees’ perceptions of HRM service value. However, most of these studies view employees as inactive in employment relationships and, therefore, do not consider whether employees’ own attributes affect their perceptions of HRM service value. In accepting the alternative notion that consumers create value “in use,” the current study regards employees as active consumers of HRM practices, and so examines the extent and way in which employees’ HRM competences (i.e., knowledge, skills, and abilities) explain the variability in HRM service value. Based on data collected from 2,002 employees in 19 companies in the Netherlands, a positive relationship has been found between employees’ HRM competences and their perception of HRM service value, albeit one that is mediated by the perceived quality and nonmonetary costs of HRM services. The main implication of our findings is that employees should be seen as active agents in employment relationships who, through coproducing and consuming HRM services as well as leveraging their knowledge and skills, influence the value of HRM services and have the potential to increase or undermine the outcomes of the employment relationship. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.