非均衡复苏下的货币政策调整

实现充分就业和物价稳定是美联储货币政策的坚定目标.当前,美国劳动力市场持续好转,就业稳步恢复,但长期失业率仍然居高不下,劳动力市场依然疲软.与此同时,随着美国经济的快速复苏,通货膨胀急剧上升.然而,根据美联储评估情况可知,全面通货膨胀尚未形成,长期通货膨胀预期基本稳定,此轮通货膨胀是暂时的,历史经验表明,如果为了应对暂时性通货膨胀而收紧货币政策可能弊大于利.因此,美联储将继续实施当前资产购买计划,直到充分就业和物价稳定取得实质性进展.但即使结束该计划,美联储仍将继续支持宽松的金融环境,未来减少资产购买也不是加息的信号.     

Social learning: A knowledge and capacity building approach for adaptive co-management of contested landscapes

There is increasing recognition in the field of natural resource management that transformative adaptation to climate and policy change requires cross industry learning and cooperation at the landscape scale. This can be supported by the development of systematic methodology on learning models for adaptive co-management between diverse and conflicting landscape managers. Our example of land-use change to hardwood plantation forestry in sub-tropical Australia illustrates an innovative implementation framework for a social learning process that helped build knowledge and community capacity for adaptive co-management of dynamic and shared landscapes. The action research methodology relied on deliberation over local knowledge, existing and emergent scientific findings, resulting in attitudinal change. Processes required facilitation and mediation by a bridging organisation, in this case a research institution, to support cross-scale communications. Reflections suggest that attention is required to manage risk and support stakeholder analysis, particularly in understanding contested values and overcoming power differentials between industry and self-interest groups. Resolving funding issues will require greater consideration by governments and industry groups of their social responsibilities to communities and the environment; particularly as this social learning model is posited for more broad-scale use in providing multi-level governance linkages and as a basis for targeting interventions to address policy gaps or failure.     

Comparing benefit estimates from travel cost and contingent valuation using confidence intervals for Hicksian welfare measures

An approach to determining whether benefit estimates derived from the travel cost method and contingent valuation method are statistically different is presented. Unlike past comparisons compensating variation is estimated for both methods. Benefit comparisons are made more rigorous by use of confidence intervals which are developed using the same Krinsky and Robb simulation technique for both valution mothods. The techniques are applied to deer hunting in California. While point estimates of benefits from both truncated and untruncated adjusted travel cost methods are lower than the contingent valuation method, the confidence intervals on the untruncated travel cost method do overlap the contingent valution method benefit estimates.     

Developing an effective industrial cluster from strawberry farms： A case of Dahu Township in Taiwan

Dahu, a small township in northern Taiwan, is famous for its produce of strawberries. Near Dahu, there are some attractions, such as hot springs, native Taiwanese tribes and a national park named Shei-pa. In order to better support more small businesses in this area, the local government is eager to promote an industrial cluster of agriculture and tourism based on the well-developed strawberry farms. In this research, the authors investigated 200 strawberry farmers to examine forming factors of the cluster, and effects of cluster on organizational performance. The findings are firstly, capital resource is regarded as the most effective forming factor of the cluster. Secondly, institutionalization, interaction mechanism and knowledge flow positively intermediate the clustering effects on organizational performance. These findings have important implications for the local government and the businesses as well.     

United States current account deficits: A stochastic optimal control analysis

The “Pessimists” and the “Optimists” disagree whether the US external deficits and the associated buildup of US net foreign liabilities are problems that require urgent attention. A warning signal should be that the debt ratio deviates significantly from the optimal ratio. The optimal debt ratio or debt burden should take into account the vulnerability of consumption to shocks from the productivity of capital, the interest rate and exchange rate. The optimal debt ratio is derived from inter-temporal optimization using Dynamic Programming, because the shocks are unpredictable, and it is essential to have a feedback control mechanism. The optimal ratio depends upon the risk adjusted net return and risk aversion both at home and abroad. On the basis of alternative estimates, we conclude that the Pessimists’ fears are justified on the basis of trends. The trend of the actual debt ratio is higher than that of the optimal ratio. The Optimists are correct that the current debt ratio is not a menace, because the current level of the debt ratio is not above the corresponding level of the optimum ratio.     

The Determinants of Successful Micro-IPOs: An Analysis of Issues Made under the Small Corporate Offering Registration (SCOR) Procedure

In this article we extend the existing IPO literature to the case of micro-IPOs by analyzing a sample of Small Corporate Offering Registration (SCOR) documents from the U.S. state of Washington. Through theory, we identified variables that should impact the probability of success or failure in a SCOR offering and then empirically tested them. Empirical support was found for the relevance of (1) marketing mechanisms and expenses; (2) ownership and governance factors; (3) business life cycle stages; and (4) signaling factors consistent with our theoretical predictions.