Overconfidence Mediates How Perception of past Portfolio Returns Affects Investment Behaviors

Investors’ perception of past portfolio returns predicts their investment behavior, but does this relationship mediate by overconfidence? Taking into account different aspects of overconfidence, this paper examines whether overconfidence manifested as illusion of control, miscalibration and better-than-average mediates the association between perception of past portfolio returns and investment behavior. In a survey study with individual and institutional investors from Malaysia, the results indicate that perception of higher past portfolio returns increases investors’ trading, percentage of risky share investment and the number of financial asset holding, through the mediating channel of better-than-average effect. While individual investors are influenced by this overconfidence mechanism, institutional investors are not sensitive. This finding has theoretical implication for overconfidence model, house money effect and naïve reinforcement learning. Practically, the results imply that individual investors should be careful about underlying overconfidence biases as it can lead to inefficient decisions.     

Modelling and forecasting national introduction times for successive generations of mobile telephony

An accurate prediction of the timing of a country's introduction of a new generation of mobile telephony benefits numerous agents including suppliers of network and consumer equipment, regulators, and network planners. We consider the estimation and prediction of the time interval between the international introduction of a generation of mobile telephony and its introduction into a specific country when a decision maker judges the introduction of a newer technology a worthwhile investment. Using literature-based socio-economic and geographical variables, we examine how well variation in international introduction times of four generations of mobile telephony in 172 countries can be explained and forecast. We model and forecast introduction times at two levels of granularity: we use Cox's proportional hazards model for the introduction time; we partition countries into introduction time-based segments and model segment membership using multinomial logistic regression. Our modelling of each generation considers three subsets of explanatory variables: All variables, socio-economic Covariates only, Regional dummies only. Over successive generations, the Covariates only models reveal the changing relevance of each socio-economic covariate. Model-based forecasting of the introduction time of the next generation is performed under three hypotheses making different uses of the information available at the time the relevant generation is launched internationally. However, changing socio-economic environments coupled with changing models impair forecasting accuracy, the lower accuracy of modelled introduction times is concentrated in 20% of countries. We speculate about the nature of the unobserved factors affecting these countries' decision processes.     

The Time Cost of Documents to Trade

The article shows that the number of documents required to export and import tend to increase the time cost of shipments. However, the increase in the time cost of increased documentation is much larger for countries that are relatively poor and large in size. One interpretation here is that the relatively rich countries that have more resources and the relatively small countries that rely more on trade invest more in building efficient documentation systems. Our findings suggest caution in interpreting how input-based measures, such as the number of required documents to trade, affect outcome measures.     

Leading with moral courage: The interplay of guilt and courage on perceived ethical leadership and group organizational citizenship behaviors

This study uses a moderated mediation model to investigate the role of leaders’ moral courage and guilt in promoting group‐level organizational citizenship behavior (OCB). Based on the idea that leaders model ethical behavior among followers, we examine whether leaders’ display of morally laden emotions weaken follower perceptions of ethical leadership, thus disrupting the influence of moral courage on followers. Two independent studies examined the proposed model. Study 1 used an experimental design to examine leaders’ moral displays, testing the interactive effects of leader moral courage, and guilt on follower perceptions of ethical leadership. Study 2 used a multisource field study with 100 leaders and 336 subordinates to explore how a leader displays of courage and guilt influenced group‐level OCB, mediated by ethical leadership. Consistent with our theoretical model, we find an indirect positive relationship between a leader’s moral courage and group OCB. However, we also find that this effect is weakened by displays of guilt by the leader.     

Communicating sustainability through a destination’s website: a checklist to inform,motivate, and engage stakeholders

This study investigated sustainability communication through destination websites. In particular, it suggested an online sustainability communication checklist (OSC-Checklist) that informs, motivates, and engages stakeholders to contribute towards the development of environmental, sociocultural, and economic sustainability. The OSC-Checklist was applied to the official websites of the top 50 competitive destinations with the aim of evaluating the extent to which each destination communicates sustainability on its website. The results indicated that the sample destinations lack an appropriate online approach to communicate sustainability. The results also revealed that the less developed and competitive destinations scored higher in terms of communicating sustainability than other more competitive developed destinations. Theoretical and practical implications are also provided.     

Will Inequality Lead China to the Middle Income Trap？

China has departed from the East Asian development model by letting inequality rise to a high level, which is now contributing to China＇s current problems of macroeconomic imbalance, declining efficiency of capital, and rising social tensions. If inequality persists, China may get caught in the ＂inequality-trap,＂ which may then lead to the middle income trap （MIT）. Fortunately, China still has the levers to pull to reduce inequality and avoid the MIT. Measures along both the ＂wage route＂ and the ＂redistributive route＂ can be adopted for this purpose. In addition, China may pursue the ＂cooperative route＂ to more equitable distribution.     

Broadacre farm productivity and profitability in south‐western Australia

This paper examines broadacre farm performance in south‐western Australia. This region has experienced pronounced climate variability and volatile commodity prices since the late 1990s. Relationships between productivity and profitability are explored using panel data from 47 farms in the study region. The data are analysed using nonparametric methods. By applying the Fare‐Primont index method, components of farm productivity and profitability are measured over the period 1998–2008. Growth in productivity is found to be the main contributor of profitability. Gains in efficiency and technical change are identified as jointly and similarly important in their contribution to total factor productivity for the farm sample in the region from 1998 to 2008. However, across environments, efficiency gains play an increasingly important role in influencing productivity as growing season rainfall increases. We conclude that R,D&E that delivers further improvement in technical efficiency and technical change is needed to support the profitability of farms across the study region.