Nonparametric estimation of a discontinuity in regression

We propose and study a new method to nonparametrically estimate a discontinuity of a regression function. The optimal rate of convergence n ⁻¹ is obtained under minimal assumptions. No smoothing is required.     

Information Barriers to Adoption of Agricultural Technologies: Willingness to Pay for Certified Seed of an Open Pollinated Maize Variety in Northern Uganda

We examine smallholder farmers’ willingness to pay for agricultural technology and whether information is a constraint to adoption of certified maize seed in Northern Uganda. The uptake of improved maize varieties by smallholder farmers in Uganda remains persistently low, despite the higher yield potential compared to traditional varieties. A recently growing body of literature identifies information constraints as a potential barrier to adoption of agricultural technologies. We used incentive compatible Becker‐DeGroot‐Marschak auctions to elicit willingness to pay for quality assured improved maize seed by 1,009 smallholder farmers, and conducted a randomised evaluation to test the effect of an information intervention on farmers’ knowledge of seed certification. Our results show that the randomised information treatment enhanced farmers’ knowledge of certified seed. However, using the information treatment as an instrumental variable for knowledge, we find no evidence of a causal effect of knowledge on willingness to pay, suggesting that even though farmers are information constrained, this constraint does not affect adoption of certified seed directly. Nevertheless, only 14% of sampled farmers were willing to pay the market price, which corresponds closely with actual observed demand for certified seed in the previous season. This suggests that there are other barriers to adoption than information and awareness.     

The role of institutional quality on the performance in the export of coconut products

The literature that addresses the role of institutions in bilateral trade is extensive. However, research that links institutional quality to specific products and their different levels of value addition is lacking. In this study, we look into institutional quality, based on three indicators from the World Bank's world governance indicators, and its indicator-specific effects on bilateral coconut trade. In particular, we study coconut products with varying degrees of value addition. We use structural gravity models to measure how institutions affect the trade performance of the top 26 coconut producing countries to the top 15 importing economies over the years 1996–2016. Our results suggest that increased government effectiveness enhances trade of high-value products, whereas better voice and accountability scores decrease trade of coconut products with both levels of value addition. No clear trade effect is observed when two countries are more similar in each of the three indicators. We conclude that each indicator has different trade effects on each of the coconut product categories. We end by giving recommendations that will help to improve the coconut export performance in their respective countries and for future research.     

Online display advertising for CPG brands: (When) does it work?

This study examines how online display ads, alone or in combination with more conventional media (television and print), can help drive sales in the consumer packaged goods (CPG) sector. It also assesses how the combined sales effect of online and offline ads depends on the volatility of their expenditures over time. We explore these relations for 154 brands across 68 Dutch CPG product categories. We find that, even though display ads are not effective for the “average” CPG brand, they do have a significant impact for a sizable, and considerably larger than expected by chance, subset of brands. Importantly, this impact depends on the type of product. While display ads are found to be ineffective for low-involvement utilitarian products, they can significantly enhance sales for other CPG product types. Moreover, the effect depends on whether they are used in combination with other media: while display ads are best used as a stand-alone medium for high-involvement utilitarian products, it is better to combine them with traditional media for hedonic products. Finally, the long-term effectiveness of display messages increases significantly when they are spread more evenly in time.     

A nearly perfect market?

Internet shopbots allow consumers to almost instantly compare prices and other characteristics from dozens of sellers via a single website. We estimate the magnitude of consumer search costs and benefits using data from a major shopbot for books. For the median consumer, the estimated benefit from simply scrolling down to search lower screens is $6.55. This amounts to about 60% of the observed price dispersion and suggests that consumers face significant search costs, even in this “nearly-perfect” market. Price elasticities are relatively high compared to offline markets (−7 to −10 in our base model). Furthermore, contrary to the common assumption, search intensity is not correlated with greater price sensitivity. Instead, consumers who search multiple screens put relatively more weight on non-price factors like brand.     

Innovation trends and industrial renewal in Finland and Sweden 1970–2013

We examine trends in innovation output for two highly ranked innovative countries: Finland and Sweden (1970–2013). Our novel dataset, collected using the LBIO (literature-based innovation output) method, suggests that the innovation trends are positive for both countries, despite an extended downturn in the 1980s. The findings cast some doubt on the proposition that the current stagnation of many developed countries is due to a lack of innovation and investment opportunities. Our data show that Finland catches up to, and passes, Sweden in innovation output in the 1990s. In per capita terms, Finland stays ahead throughout the period. We find that the strong Finnish performance is largely driven by innovation increase in just a handfull of sectors, but is not restricted to few companies. Both countries saw a rise in innovation during the dot-com era and the structural changes that followed. Since 2000 however, Sweden has outperformed Finland in terms of total innovations, especially in machinery and ICT, while the Finnish rate of innovation has stabilised. We suggest that these patterns may be explained by different paths of industrial renewal.     

Paid and Unpaid Labour in Non‐Profit Organizations: Does the Substitution Effect Exist?

In non‐profit organizations (NPOs), volunteers often work alongside paid workers. Such a co‐production setting can lead to tension between the two worker groups. This article examines for the first time if and how volunteers influence the separation of paid employees, and thus it contributes to the debate over whether volunteers can substitute paid workers. Using Austrian data at the organizational level, we find a significant impact of volunteers on the separations of paid workers in NPOs facing increased competition. These findings support the assumption that a partial substitution effect exists between paid workers and volunteers.