浅析2020年我国经济增长

2020年,面对国内外的复杂形势和全球新冠肺炎疫情的冲击,我国在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下,攻坚克难,坚持稳中求进的工作总基调,推进供给侧结构性改革,各地区、各部门切实做好“六稳”工作,认真落实“六保”任务,经济总体保持健康平稳发展态势。今年2月28日,国家统计局公布了我国2020年初步核算的国民经济相关统计结果。     

Correlation dynamics and international diversification benefits

Forecasting the evolution of security co-movements is critical for asset pricing and portfolio allocation. Hence, we investigate patterns and trends in correlations over time using weekly returns for developed markets (DMs) and emerging markets (EMs) over the period 1973–2012. We show that it is possible to model co-movements for many countries simultaneously using BEKK, DCC, and DECO models. Empirically, we find that correlations have trended upward significantly for both DMs and EMs. Based on a time-varying measure of diversification benefits, we find that it is not possible to circumvent the increasing correlations in a long-only portfolio by adjusting the portfolio weights over time. However, we do find some evidence that adding EMs to a DM-only portfolio increases diversification benefits.     

Fashion retail forecasting by evolutionary neural networks

Recent literature on nonlinear models has shown that neural networks are versatile tools for forecasting. However, the search for an ideal network structure is a complex task. Evolutionary computation is a promising global search approach for feature and model selection. In this paper, an evolutionary computation approach is proposed in searching for the ideal network structure for a forecasting system. Two years’ apparel sales data are used in the analysis. The optimized neural networks structure for the forecasting of apparel sales is developed. The performances of the models are compared with the basic fully connected neural networks and the traditional forecasting models. We find that the proposed algorithms are useful for fashion retail forecasting, and the performance of it is better than the traditional SARIMA model for products with features of low demand uncertainty and weak seasonal trends. It is applicable for fashion retailers to produce short-term retail forecasting for apparels, which share these features.     

A qualitative study of inter-organizational knowledge management in complex products and systems development

Much research has recognized that cross-disciplinary knowledge inputs are necessary to successful product innovation, particularly in complex products and systems (CoPS) development. This paper focuses on developing an exploratory framework for studying how an inter-organizational knowledge management (KM) approach affects the development of CoPS, and exploring how inter-organizational collaboration affects KM within a CoPS context. Based on a review of the literature and in-depth case studies, this paper puts forward some propositions and develops an integrated conceptual model showing the link between the dimensions of inter-organizational KM and the performance of CoPS development. Finally, the implications of the proposed model for inter-organizational KM in a CoPS environment are discussed.     

对外贸易与中国制造业发展：基于可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型的模拟分析

运用CGE模型模拟分析了对外贸易对我国制造业主要行业的产出、收益及投资水平的作用效果。分析结果显示,制造业产出、收益和投资变化率与对外贸易变化率呈正相关;除了金属行业的收益增长率在贸易小幅增长时,其行业的收益率高于贸易的增长率以外,其余行业的贸易的增长率均大于各行业收益增长率,低于投资增长率;而贸易的小幅增长对于纺织业、金属行业、炼焦、煤气和石油加工业的收益水平的提升更有利;贸易的高度增长对于具有增长潜力的机械行业更有利;对于食品制造业、化学行业、非金属矿物制品业来讲贸易的适度增长对行业发展更有利。由此提出在大力发展制造业贸易的同时,要针对各行业对贸易的不同敏感程度,合理的调整产业政策,发挥技术创新能力,以此提升制造业的贸易利得。     

发挥内部审计的咨询评价作用

在"管理 效益"的内部审计最新定位框架下,内部审计职能必须由单纯的监督检查的保护性职能向与咨询评价服务的建设性职能并重转变.本文围绕内部审计如何发挥咨询评价作用的问题开展分析,基于实现国际趋同和在企业内部提供咨询服务2个方面论述了发挥内部审计作用的必要性,探讨了发挥内部审计咨询评价服务作用的原则、方式、途径和内容,对发挥内部审计咨询服务作用的条件提出了建议.     

单壁碳纳米管的侧壁共价修饰

通过1．3-偶极环加成的方法合成了单壁碳纳米管侧壁共价修饰化合物。通过红外光谱和拉曼光谱表征结果证实了化合物的形成,为进一步构建微／纳传感器件并成功进行检验检疫技术研发奠定了基础。     

企业网站要web2.0

<正>企业的信息化建设已经受到前所未有的重视,甚至已经被提到企业发展战略的高度。企业网站不仅代表着企业的网络品牌形象,同时也是开展网络营销的根据地。企业网站建设作为企业行为,其背后的动机是什么?企业设立的网站是否满足消费者的需求?     

易逝品供应链中回购价格的影响分析

<正>一、引言在易逝品供应链中,由于产品生命周期较短、具有显著的季节性产品的特征,因此供应链中零售商通常是在季初一次性订购销售季节所需产品。在承认供应链成员为理性并基于自身利益最大化的角度进行个体决策的决策模式基础上,零售商只关     

组织信任氛围对任务绩效的作用途径

This paper explores the mechanism by which trust climate influences individual performance. From the perspective of psychological dynamics, we investigate the relationship among perceptions of organizational climate, motivation and individual behaviors to crystallize how a trustworthy organizational environment favors superior individual performance. 203 employees and their supervisors participated in this study, the results show that trust climate benefits individual performance through fostering psychological safety, which in turn influences individual performance via two mutually complementary pathways, namely ability to focus and organizational learning. Psychological safety is conducive to increasing individual ability to focus and improving job performance. Moreover, it is also instrumental in enhancing individual willingness to learn and experiment with new methods as an effort to achieve superior performance. Theoretical and practical implications are also discussed. __________ Translated and revised from Xinli kexue xuebao 心理科学学报 (Acta Psychologica Sinica), 2007, 39(6): 1111–1121