Investment, credit, and endogenous cycles

This paper presents a general-equilibrium dynamic Ramsey-type model that can generate endogenous cycle. We assume two different representative agents, borrowers and lenders, and financial intermediaries with inside and outside money. We investigate under which conditions this model presents a cyclical relationship between capital and loans. The sources of endogenous fluctuations in this model come from a credit restriction in the representative-borrower problem.     

Wage inequality and the labor market impact of economic transformation: Croatia, 1970–2008

In this paper, we examine wage inequality and wage differentials in Croatia from 1970 to 2008 using two long aggregate time series on the distribution of income. We focus especially on changing income inequality related to educational and vocational attainment, changing income inequality within those groups, and how these two components of inequality were affected by the economic transformation from socialism to capitalism. We find that income inequality between groups rose moderately post-transformation, while overall inequality increased more sharply. This finding is consistent with a growing importance of individual rather than group productivity in labor market compensation, a change broadly consistent with the economic transformation of the Croatian labor market.     

Fish as the “bank in the water” – Evidence from chronic-poor communities in Congo

Small-scale fisheries in developing countries are often perceived as being a low-productivity and backward informal sector. As a result they are rarely considered in poverty reduction programmes and rural development planning. In this paper, we investigate the dual role of fish as a food and cash crop through data collected in river fisheries in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Fishing in this very remote rural region of DRC is operated both by men and women, as part of a household multiple activity livelihood strategy. The data shows that poor households rely heavily on fishing for their supply of protein-rich food, in particular through women’s subsistence catches. Fishing also appears to be the main source of cash-income for the majority of households, including local farmers. Based on these findings and a review of the literature, the paper argues that small-scale fisheries can play a fundamental role in local economies, especially in remote rural areas where they strengthen significantly the livelihoods of people through their role in both food security and cash-income generation.     

Strategic individual assessment: Issues in providing reliable descriptions

Individual assessment involves one psychologist making an assessment of an individual for personnel-related purposes. Individual assessment practice is reviewed, and research on reliability is presented. A study examining the comparability of conclusions reached by consumers is presented. Eighty-six students and thirty-eight managers read nine narrative assessment reports (three of each of three job candidates) and attempted to determine which reports described the same candidate. None of the subjects could correctly group the nine reports; a sizeable proportion did no better than chance in grouping the reports. Implications for assessors and consumers of individual assessments are discussed.     

Gender and ethnic differences in factors that influence food intake

Abstract The objective of this research was to ascertain the gender-and ethnic-related factors that influence what one eats. This survey was conducted using a validated, pilot-tested questionnaire in 11 states and the District of Columbia, which were participating in the W-182 Western Regional Research project. The results indicated that the factors that influence what one eats differ by gender and ethnicity. Men were very much influenced by likes and dislikes, and by their spouse or significant other. Women were influenced by likes and dislikes, and health. Food likes/dislikes and concerns about health and weight were among the leading four factors for all ethnic groups. Food likes/dislikes were the top factor influencing what is eaten by 51% or more of Asians, Pacific Islanders, Caucasians and Hispanics. Concern about health was the top factor for 62% and 58%, respectively, of African Americans and Native Americans.     

The George Washington University Forecast of Emerging Technologies: A Continuous Assessment of the Technology Revolution

A method is presented for the continuous assessment of major technological advances—the George Washington University (GWU) forecast of emerging technologies. Environmental scanning and trend analysis are used to identify emerging technologies (ETs), and a Delphi-type survey then asks a panel of authorities to estimate the year each advance will occur, its associated probability, the potential size of its market, and the nation that will lead each ET. Eighty-five prominent ETs have been identified and grouped into 12 fields: energy, environment, farming and food, computer hardware, computer software, communications, information services, manufacturing and robotics, materials, medicine, space, and transportation. Results are presented from four survey rounds covering the past 8 years, and they are compared longitudinally to estimate the range of variance. The data are also divided into three successive decades to provide scenarios portraying the unfolding waves of innovation that comprise the coming technology revolution.