Export entry and exit by German firms

Export Entry and Exit by German Firms. — While exports have played an important role in German business cycles, little is known about the export supply response of German firms. This paper presents a dynamic model of the export decision by a profit-maximizing firm. Using a panel of German manufacturing plants, we test for the role of plant characteristics and sunk costs in the entry decision. We find evidence for substantial sunk costs: exporting today by a plant increases the probability by 50 percent that the plant will export tomorrow. This advantage depreciates quickly, falling by two-thirds in a year. The authors also find evidence that plant success, as measured by size and productivity, increases the likelihood of exporting.     

Preface

The paper examines the main issues surrounding distributional effects in the domains of natural resource management and land policies, agricultural technology and research policies, agricultural market and trade policies, and consumer‐oriented policies, including standards, subsidies, and labeling. Agriculture is drifting into an ever more drastic bifurcation at a global level and within many countries. Correcting that bifurcation will require large investments in rural areas and rural people, in institutions, and in information and biological technologies accessible by the poor in the world's smallholder sector. Large and growing national and international inequalities related to agriculture and rural areas threaten peace, growth, and sustainable development.     

Exports and Productivity: A Survey of the Evidence from Firm‐level Data

While the role of exports in promoting growth in general, and productivity in particular, has been investigated empirically using aggregate data for countries and industries for a long time, only recently have comprehensive longitudinal data at the firm level been used to look at the extent and causes of productivity differentials between exporters and their counterparts which sell on the domestic market only. This paper surveys the empirical strategies applied, and the results produced, in 54 microeconometric studies with data from 34 countries that were published between 1995 and 2006. Details aside, exporters are found to be more productive than non‐exporters, and the more productive firms self‐select into export markets, while exporting does not necessarily improve productivity.     

Union density and determinants of union membership in 18 EU countries: evidence from micro data, 2002/031

Using representative individual-level data from the first round of the European Social Survey fielded in 2002/03, this article provides an empirical analysis of unionisation in 18 countries of the EU. We show that union density varies considerably in Europe, ranging from 84 per cent in Denmark to 11 per cent in Portugal. Estimating identical models for each country, we find that individuals’ probability of union membership is significantly affected by their personal characteristics, their attitudes and the characteristics of their workplace, whereas social factors seem to play a minor role. The presence of a union at the workplace and employees’ attitudes concerning strong unions are the two variables most strongly associated with unionisation.     

MULTIFRACTIONAL STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS

The aim of this work is to advocate the use of multifractional Brownian motion (mBm) as a relevant model in financial mathematics. mBm is an extension of fractional Brownian motion where the Hurst parameter is allowed to vary in time. This enables the possibility to accommodate for varying local regularity, and to decouple it from long‐range dependence properties. While we believe that mBm is potentially useful in a variety of applications in finance, we focus here on a multifractional stochastic volatility Hull & White model that is an extension of the model studied in Comte and Renault. Using the stochastic calculus with respect to mBm developed in Lebovits and Lévy Véhel, we solve the corresponding stochastic differential equations. Since the solutions are of course not explicit, we take advantage of recently developed numerical techniques, namely functional quantization‐based cubature methods, to get accurate approximations. This allows us to test the behavior of our model (as well as the one in Comte and Renault) with respect to its parameters, and in particular its ability to explain some features of the implied volatility surface. An advantage of our model is that it is able both to fit smiles at different maturities, and to take volatility persistence into account in a more precise way than Comte and Renault.     

Translating satisfaction determination from health care to the automotive industry

This study is based on the case of BMW, and aims to improve the determination of perceived consumer satisfaction in the automotive industry by transferring existing knowledge from the health care sector. A literature analysis of the health care sector and the automotive industry was conducted to identify the common concepts of determining satisfaction. These were the service encounter, situational factors, and sociodemographics. The practical application was tested by analyzing a contemporary survey from BMW. Based on the findings, managers responsible for customer satisfaction in after-sales services in the automotive industry could improve measurement of customer satisfaction.     

Altschuldenentlastung der Bundesländer: Verteilungswirkungen ausgewählter Vorschläge

Due to large public deficits in the past, many German states face high interest payments in their budgets today. Therefore, a restructuring of this outstanding debt will be a major topic in forthcoming negotiations on the future design of the fiscal equalisation scheme. This article presents some proposals that are currently being discussed and calculates their redistributional effects between the federal government and the states. It is shown that all models would lead to a significantly higher burden for the federal budget. The only way to afford this is either to increase the value added tax rates or to keep the so-called solidarity surcharge that was originally introduced to finance transfers to East Germany.     

Heteroskedasticity and Neglected Parameter Heterogeneity

The paper studies the consequences of neglecting parameter heterogeneity for the linear regression model and cross-sectional data. Monte-Carlo experiments are used to illustrate that neglected parameter heterogeneity typically leads to (a) regression coefficients that are economically meaningless and (b)significant test statistics for heteroskedasticity and, possibly non-normality. The paper concludes that evidence for heteroskedasticity should not routinely lead to the use of White's well-known heteroskedasticity-consistent variance covariance matrix estimator. If heteroskedasticity is caused by neglected parameter heterogeneity or other causes of heteroskedasticity, such as wrong functional form, White's estimator will not serve any useful purpose.     

Social inequalities in travel behaviour: trip distances in the context of residential self-selection and lifestyles

In recent years, the framework of ‘classical’ objective determinants of travel behaviour – such as transport systems, generalised travel costs, life situation and the built environment – has begun to make way for the introduction of subjective elements including attitudes, lifestyles, and location preferences. This paper presents findings from an empirical study of trip distances travelled for three purposes (work, maintenance, leisure). The study was conducted in the region of Cologne, and the analysis is based on structural equation modelling. The results indicate that, in general, neither lifestyles nor location preferences have a strong impact on trip distances, except for leisure activities: here lifestyle has the strongest impact of all variables studied. Maintenance trip distances are significantly affected by the spatial setting in which people live, indicating the relevance of the built environment for this travel segment.     

Extracting cover sets from free fuzzy sorting data

Assignment of items to multiple categories requires suitable statistical methods. The present paper provides a new approach to solve this task. The concept of fuzzy sets is extended to cover sets (sets of overlapping clusters) in a simple manner introducing a vector of item membership sums. The application of the new concept is exemplified by modifying the fuzzy cluster analysis algorithm of Kaufman and Rousseeuw (Finding groups in data: an introduction to cluster analysis, 1990) to cover set cluster analysis appropriately. Wide equivalence of the numerical problems is demonstrated from Lagrange multipliers and Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions. Additionally, some extensions are introduced to the algorithm to improve its behavior for suboptimal large or small numbers of clusters. The adapted algorithm in most cases reproduces single sortings for correct numbers of clusters. Two applications to empirical free fuzzy sorting data sets are provided. Limitations of the algorithm are discussed.