Parameter instability in aggregate US import demand functions

The paper examines parameter stability in aggregate US import demand functions for the time period 1972–1990. We identify in particular whether parameter stability depends upon the definitions used to represent the dependent and independent variables. Significant instability is found for 1974/75 in all models tested. For the 1975–1990 period, parameter stability depends on the definition of the relative price term employed in the model. Equations which exclude computer imports tend to have fewer stability problems than non-oil import demand models. We also find that the most stable models generate the best out-of-sample forecasts.     

Institutions and business networks: A comparative analysis of the Chinese, Russian, and West European markets

The paper analyses business networks originating from three markets: Chinese, Russian, and West European. So far, little attention has been given to the fact that business networks in particular markets may be dissimilar because of differences among institutions. The paper advances a model where institutions are assumed to influence five major characteristics of business; (1) the processual aspects of the network, (2) the structural aspects of the network, (3) the function of firms and relationships in the network, (4) the meaning of strategy and planning, and (5) social relationships in the context of inter-firm relationships. The analysis builds on three types of substances of institutions — cognitive, normative, and regulative, which in turn are specified according to different aspects. The cognitive substance of business networks is explored through the aspects of self, time, and causality. The normative substance is explored through the aspects of achieved versus ascribed status, inner versus outer direction, universalism versus particularism, and trust. The regulative substance is specified as an authority system and a sanction system. The analysis demonstrates that, as institutions differ in these three markets, the business among them also differs in terms of the five characteristics, and this variation calls for different strategies for firms operating in these markets.     

Causal inference in empirical archival financial accounting research

This study discusses the challenges and opportunities of establishing causal inference in empirical archival financial accounting research. Causal inference requires identification of a theoretically predicted causal mechanism in a research setting optimized to avoid endogenous causes and using a suitable statistical inference strategy. After briefly describing potential research design strategies, I analyze the frequency of causal studies published in leading business and economics journals. I identify causal studies by their abstract including an explicit reference to their causal nature and find that they are significantly more common in the areas of economics and finance compared to other business-oriented research disciplines like accounting. Also, the extent to which research designs are optimized for causal inference differs significantly between causal empirical archival studies in the area of financial accounting and finance. I discuss potential reasons for this gap and make some suggestions on how the demand for and supply of well-designed causal studies in the area of empirical archival financial accounting research might be increased.     

World civilisations at crossroads: Towards an expansionist or a sustainable future—Lessons from history

Like may periods of the past, the future will be characterised by resource scarcities, with limited pollution sink capacities constituting a new constraint. The strategic choices discussed in the West today resemble quite closely the strategies developed in Europe during past centuries to deal with resource scarcities: to overcome them by means of market mechanisms leading to efficiency improvements and substitution, by global trade enhancing resource availability, or by forcefully seizing foreign resources. In order to learn lessons for the future, these strategies are discussed regarding their past performance and their present applicability. They face severe limits regarding their problem solving capabilities, either because they are structurally unsuitable as a response to global economic and environmental scarcity problems, or their success is too questionable to rely on it. Consequently, another strategy is needed to adapt human economies and societies to the limits of Planet Earth. Sustainable development is such a strategy, developed in Europe in the 18th century to deal with absolute scarcities; its roots help to understand its current relevance. In a globally interconnected world it cannot be operationalised top-down, but is dependent on cooperation to become effective. Sustainability strategies cannot be designed as one-size-fits-all solutions, but are civilisation specific. This in turn requires an international institutional framework based on the subsidiarity principle (the imperative to take decisions at the lowest effective level), requiring the acceptance of political and cultural diversity of the current and future world society. It encourages different civilisation specific development objectives and trajectories, however with all actors contributing in their own ways to the achievement of agreed common goals like combating climate change, preserving biodiversity or eradicating poverty, following the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities.     

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND COMMERCIALIZATION IN AGRICULTURE: The Effect on the Poor

Do the economic gains brought by technological innovation andcommercialization in agriculture work their way through to thepoor? The prevailing optimistic view is that they do. But thisview is not universal: some hold that these forces for changecan interact with, or even induce, institutional and marketfailure, with adverse consequences for the poor. Adherents of the pessimistic view point to real-world instancesin which the poor have failed to reap the benefits, or evenhave lost, from the technological change or commercialization.Where these effects have occurred we find that they are mostlyattributable to inelastic demand or adverse institutional features;often, when technology or commercialization has been blamedfor the decline in income of the poor, other—not necessarilyconnected—policies have in fact been responsible for thedamage. This article contends that the optimistic view is, by and large,correct: normally, technology and commercialization stimulateagricultural growth, improve employment opportunities, and expandfood supply—all central to the alleviation of poverty.The evidence does not offer much encouragement to an extensionof this view—that through "social engineering" the benefitsfrom technology and commercialization can easily be targetedtoward the poor; the limited opportunities for such targetingshould of course be seized.      

Duplication without constraints: Álvarez‐Nogal and Chamley's analysis of debt policy under Philip II

Carlos Álvarez‐Nogal and Christophe Chamley recently published an article in the Economic History Review on ‘Debt policy under constraints: Philip II, the Cortes, and Genoese bankers’. In this note, we show that several claims in their article are very similar to earlier research results, published or circulated long before Álvarez‐Nogal and Chamley's original submission, by ourselves and other scholars (section I). These results are repeated without attribution or even mention of the earlier work. In addition, we show that what Álvarez‐Nogal and Chamley present as new quantitative insights are actually replications of earlier results of ours (section II). Finally, Álvarez‐Nogal and Chamley misrepresent our contributions, as well as those of several other scholars (section III).     

全球性量化宽松意味着全球性长期通胀

【摩根士丹利7月3日】目前,许多国家的总体通胀率已陷入负区间,而全球经济才刚刚摆脱“大衰退”。在这种情况下担忧通胀风险,如果不说是荒唐,似乎至少也是为时过早。现在看来,大多数投资者并不担心通胀风险。事实上,根据市场数据推算,目前美国和欧元区的10年期通胀预期都不到2％,低于过去十年间的实际通胀率。但我们认为,市场对长期通胀风险过于乐观了;未来十年的通胀率看来更有可能大大超过、而非低于过去十年间的平均通胀率。