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21.
Money,interest rate spreads,and economic activity 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Money, Interest Rate Spreads, and Economic Activity. —Numerous empirical studies for industrial countries have shown that the term structure of interest rates is a good indicator for future output growth. This paper analyzes whether the interest rate spread contains any additional predictive power if the model includes the money stock. A multivariate error-correction framework is applied to three European economies — France, Germany, and Italy. Granger causality tests are performed for various monetary aggregates and the term structure. The evidence concerning the marginal information content is mixed: For France and Italy, the term structure does not improve the results of the basic model whereas it is significant for Germany. 相似文献
22.
Summary This paper starts off by describing the methodology of the compilation of the 1964 IO-table for Styria, which is conceptually fully consistent with the 1964 table for Austria. Basic definitions are given and some information is provided on the more important stages of the compilation of the table, such as estimation of a table in purchaser prices, conversion to producer prices, estimation of complete import matrices for interregional and international imports. The underlying philosophy in all these stages was to work on a very low level of aggregation (products, groups of products) in order to make use of all available detailed information and to overcome the problems arising from the lack of some basic information (e.g. shipments between regions).In the second part of the paper we present some empirical results derived from an analysis of the Styrian IO-table, Version C (only regional deliveries in the first two quadrants). This analysis shows a remarkably high regional multiplier effect of Styrian exports (to other parts of Austria, and abroad) and of private consumption on the economy of the region. High multiplier effects of final demand deliveries are exhibited by such sectors as saw mills, hotels and restaurants, housing and food production (all above 1,6). Finally the bias from using a single regional table instead of a multi-regional table in estimating the regional and total effects of final demand on the economy of a region is discussed. 相似文献
23.
Original Papers
Rise in Occupational Mobility Especially Amongst Women and Young PeopleSuccessful jobsearch often based on personal initiative 相似文献24.
This article uses regime‐switching models of the threshold type to analyze the adjustment process of rental prices for three U.K. commercial real estate sectors over the period 1974–2008. The nonlinear models outperform their linear counterparts in in‐sample fit. Their out‐of‐sample forecasting ability is better whenever the corresponding linear models contain a significant amount of neglected nonlinearity. Regime switches are triggered when the growth rates of rental price exceed certain threshold levels. For the industrial and retail sectors such regime switches occur in situations of strong excess demand, for the office sector they occur when there is strong excess supply. 相似文献
25.
The food situation in Africa can be expected to become increasingly serious as the end of the century approaches. The gap between domestic supply and food needs in rapidly widening. Yield-increasing technology becomes essential in view of land scarcity in high-potential areas and sustainability problems in marginal zones. The concern of governments for food self-sufficiency, however, must not divert attention from the primary objective of household food security, which is essentially a question of households' real income. Accelerated rural growth and improved rural health and sanitation services accessible to the poor are central elements for household food security improvement. 相似文献
26.
Joachim Zietz 《Journal of Macroeconomics》1985,7(1):51-67
The paper presents a method for separating the sample on wage rate and labor input for a labor market in disequilibrium prior to the estimation stage. It is shown how the method's economic rationale stems from the existence of Keynesian unemployment, which implies a combination of real wage and labor input off the notional labor demand and supply curves. The potential usefulness of the method for generating unbiased estimates of wage elasticities of labor demand and labor supply is demonstrated on annual U.S. data. 相似文献
27.
Joachim Scheide 《Review of World Economics》1986,122(3):575-598
Conclusions To compare new classical and Austrian theory seems legitimate only with respect to a particular aspect of economic reality,
namely business cycles. In the past century, Austrians have covered so many fields of economic theory that the achievements
of new classicals are comparatively small. The discussions of both approaches showed that it would not be appropriate to claim
that Austrians have developed theonly theory of business cycles which refers to individual behavior and choice. New classicals have rediscovered this approach
and used many of the tenets for their explanation. This is not to say that new classical theory completely follows Austrian
traditions. But many of the differences appear to be small or are only semantic in character. 相似文献
28.
29.
The paper uses 1980 to 2000 Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data to study the short-run effect of a stock market appreciation on U.S. household income inequality. Fixed-effects regressions suggest that a stock market appreciation raises the incomes of stockholder households more than non-stockholder households. The Gini coefficients derived from the regressions reveal a perceptible but rather volatile increase that can be attributed to the stock market appreciation, especially for the latter parts of the 1980s and 1990s. When averaged by decade, the stock market appreciation raises the Gini coefficient by about 2% for the 1980s and by 3% for the 1990s. 相似文献
30.
This paper examines whether there is increased inter-year instability in food consumption at the national level, and to what extent this is attributable to increased instability of food production in the wake of adoption of modern agricultural technology. The data analysed indicates that increased production instability does translate into increased fluctuations in consumption. Nevertheless, year-to-year consumption variability among the sample of 38 countries has declined during the past 25 years. This is attributed to improved stocking operations and trade practices which accompany economic growth. Nevertheless, food insecurity, as measured in terms of fluctuations around trend levels of consumption, does remain a problem, especially among the poor. Therefore, policy options to reduce consumption instability are outlined. 相似文献