本轮全球经济减速不同于以往

目前投资者们希望同我们探讨两个主要全球宏观经济问题，一是经济放缓将会持续多久和放缓程度怎样；二是在经济减速和大宗商品价格回落背景下，通胀是否仍是中长期经济增长面临的一个风险。对这两个问题，我们的认识并非发生实质性变化。我们预计，G7集团经济将陷入一个相对漫长的滞胀期，而不是一次严重衰退，而且我们认为持续上行的潜在通胀压力将制约油价下跌带动未来核心通胀率回落的空间。因此，我们认为滞胀仍是主基调，这将限制全球主要央行的利率调整空间。鉴于我们获悉有很多人认为经济衰退和通胀率大幅回落（甚至通缩）将成主要格局，因此有必要结合近期经济发展态势来再度阐明我们的经济“滞胀”观点。     

Barriers to energy efficiency: A comparison across the German commercial and services sector

Based on a large sample for the German commercial and services sector, this paper econometrically assesses the relevance of various types of barriers to energy efficiency at the sectoral level and across fifteen sub-sectors. The results at the level of entire sectors suggest that the lack of information about energy consumption patterns and about energy efficiency measures, lack of staff time, priority setting within organizations, and - in particular - the investor/user dilemma are all relevant barriers. Allowing for sector-specific differences in the relevance of these individual barriers yields a more heterogeneous picture. The numbers and types of relevant barriers vary across sub-sectors, and the majority of sub-sectors are subject to relatively few barriers. The statistically most significant barriers are found for the sub-sector of public administrations. These findings are robust, independent of whether the definition of an organization's energy efficiency performance includes only measures that have actually been realized or also those that are being planned. For planned projects, however, organizations appear to underestimate internal priority setting as a barrier to energy efficiency.     

The impact of home production on economic inequality in Germany

Using representative income and time-use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we estimate non-monetary income advantages arising from home production and analyze their impact on economic inequality. As an alternative to existing measures, we propose a predicted wage approach that relaxes some of the strong assumptions underlying both the standard opportunity cost approach and the housekeeper wage approach. We also propose a method of adjusting the number of hours spent on home production to reduce the bias arising from multi-tasking and joint production in time-use data. Sensitivity analyses comparing results among different approaches provide indications of method effects. Although this study supports the evidence that considering home production leads to a reduction in inequality, we show that the size of this effect differs according to the variations in the mean and distribution of the estimated monetary value of home production across the three approaches. This finding underscores the need for a harmonized approach in cross-national comparative research.     

Methods of household consumption measurement through surveys: Experimental results from Tanzania

Surveys of consumption expenditure vary widely across many dimensions, including the level of reporting, the length of the reference period, and the degree of commodity detail. These variations occur both across countries and also over time within countries, with little current understanding of the implications of such changes for spatially and temporally consistent measurement of household consumption and poverty. A field experiment in Tanzania tests eight alternative methods of measuring household consumption, finding significant differences between consumption reported by the benchmark personal diary and other diary and recall formats. Under-reporting is particularly apparent for illiterate households and for urban respondents completing household diaries; recall modules measure lower consumption than a personal diary, with larger gaps among poorer households and for households with more adult members. Variations in reporting accuracy by household characteristics are also discussed and differences in measured poverty as a result of survey design are explored.     

Export sophistication and economic growth: Evidence from China

We consider the effect of export sophistication on economic performance by appealing to regional variation within one single country (China) over the 1997-2009 period. We find evidence in support of Hausmann, Hwang and Rodrik (2007), in that regions specializing in more sophisticated goods subsequently grow faster. We find substantial variation in export sophistication at the province and prefecture level, controlling for the level of development, and that this sophistication in turn drives growth. Our results suggest that these gains are limited to the ordinary export activities undertaken by domestic firms: no direct gains result from either processing trade activities or foreign firms, even though these are the main contributors to the global upgrading of China's exports. As such, the extent of assembly trade and foreign entities should be distinguished in order to measure the true movement in a country's technology and the contribution of exports to economic growth.     

Recent approaches to estimating Engel curves

Classical approaches of estimating cross-section Engel curves are based on parametric models. However, misspecification of a parametric model implies that information of structural nature might be masked. An alternative avoiding problems related to predetermined functional relations is the nonparametric approach. This paper surveys recent advances of nonparametric statistics in their relevance to estimating cross-section Engel curves.     

From ‘spaces of place’ to ‘spaces of flows’? Territorial and functional governance in cross‐border regions in Europe and North America

To what extent are we experiencing a transformation from ‘spaces of place’ to a ‘space of flows’ as proposed by Manuel Castells? Applying his thesis to the political system leads to the following implications. Socio‐economic processes of ‘glocalization’ are undermining the gate‐keeper position of national governments. Furthermore, governance is becoming ‘deterritorialized’, an aspect which is characterized by Elkins as an ‘unbundling’ of identities and jurisdictions. But does this process of unbundling lead to a federal system of multi‐level governance where the national level is complemented by supranational and subnational levels of governance; or does it imply an even more radical transformation towards an architecture of governance which is characterized by a proliferation of single‐purpose governments with variable and flexible spatial scales? A final implication is the transformation from ‘government to governance’— which means a broader array of actors and changing modes of interaction. This article traces these theses by analysing institutions of governance in four cross‐border regions in Europe and North America. In all regions we indeed find many cross‐border networks and institutions undermining the national gate‐keeper position. In Europe, cross‐border collaboration is producing another soft, but institutionalized, comprehensive, stable and territorially‐defined layer in the European ‘multi‐level‐system’. In North America, by contrast, only informal, fluid, specific and non‐territorial institutions are evolving across national borders. Here, the territorially‐based nation state is not complemented by similar kinds of political institutions, but is instead being challenged more fundamentally by new kinds of institutions: transnational socio‐economic exchange networks and transnational ideological coalitions which embody enormous transformational power. In conclusion, cross‐border regional governance in Europe still follows the logic of ‘spaces of place’, whereas in North America quite different ‘spaces of flows’ are emerging as complementary logics of community and institution building. Jusqu'où s'exerce la transformation d'un ‘espace de lieux’ en ‘espace des flux’, comme le suggère Manuel Castells? L'application de cette théorie au système politique a plusieurs implications. Les processus socio‐économiques de ‘glocalisation’ désagrègent la position de garde‐barrière des gouvernements nationaux. De plus, la gouvernance se ‘déterritorialise’, phénomène qu'Elkins appelle la ‘séparation’ des identités et des domaines de compétence. Mais à quel type de gouvernance cette ‘séparation’ mène‐t‐elle: à un système fédéral à plusieurs niveaux où le plan national est complété de plans supra‐ et infra‐nationaux de gouvernance? ou à un changement plus radical vers une architecture caractérisée par une prolifération de gouvernements à finalité unique dont les échelles spatiales varient et s'adaptent? Une dernière conséquence est le passage de gouvernement à gouvernance, qui se traduit par une diversification des acteurs et de nouveaux modes d'interactions. L'article retrouve ces thèses en analysant des institutions de gouvernance dans quatre régions transfrontalières européennes et nord‐américaines. Dans toutes les régions, l'étude identifie en effet de nombreux réseaux et institutions transfrontaliers qui minent la position de garde‐barrière nationale. En Europe, la collaboration transfrontalière crée une strate souple, quoique institutionnalisée, étendue, stable et aux limites territoriales définies dans le ‘système européen à plusieurs niveaux’. En Amérique du Nord, en revanche, n'interviennent à travers les frontières que des institutions informelles, fluides, spécifiques et non‐territoriales; l'État‐nation lié au territoire n'est pas complété d'institutions politiques de types similaires, étant plutôt profondément mis en cause par des institutions d'un genre nouveau: réseaux d'échanges socio‐économiques et coalitions idéologiques transnationaux qui expriment une énorme dynamique de transformation. Pour conclure, la gouvernance régionale transfrontalière en Europe obéit encore à la logique des ‘espaces de lieux’ tandis qu'en Amérique du Nord, des ‘espaces de flux’ tout à fait différents apparaissent dans une logique complémentaire de construction de communautés et d'institutions.     

Feles: The functionalized extended linear expenditure system: Theory,estimation procedures and application to individual household consumption expenditures involving socioeconomic and sociodemographic characteristics

This article introduces the Functionalized Extended Linear Expenditure System, FELES, a new extension on Lluch's familiar Extended Linear Expenditure System. Household individual expenditures with respect to ‘subsistence expenditures’ and ‘partial marginal propensities to consume’ are made explicitly dependent on socioeconomic and sociodemographic characteristics in a system-wide approach. A restricted maximum likelihood estimator for relatively small systems with few explanatory variables and an iterative estimation procedure for larger systems with an extensive set of explanatory variables are proposed. The complete FELES then is applied to cross-sectional data with more than 47,000 German households. Stone's LES and Lluch's ELES are first quantified too on a German data base of this extent.