The Timing of Daily Demand for Goods and Services—Microsimulation Policy Results of an Aging Society,Increasing Labour Market Flexibility,and Extended Public Childcare in Germany

Knowledge about the timing of consumption opens new insights into consumption behaviour for consumer, economic, social, as well as for communal and societal policies. It not only allows sound information for a better match of timely supply and demand but also about everyday living arrangements. This study contributes to the timing aspect of daily consumption by posing the question: How is the timing of daily demand for goods and services affected by major changes in German society? We concentrate on important and currently discussed developments and policies: the huge shift in Germany’s demographic structure with an aging society (with a population forecast for 2020 by the German Federal Statistical Office), the deregulation and the further expansion in flexibility of the labour market, and the current policy of extending public childcare support. For each aspect and policy, we first describe the actual timing of daily demand for goods and services. With the microsimulation approach and different scenarios, we then quantify the respective societal and policy impacts based on more than 37?000 time-use diaries of the current German Time Budget Survey of 2001/2002.     

Rettet die Energiewende? Warum eigentlich?

After the Fukushima accident, the German government decided to change the energy system in a dramatic way (the energy transition). The core of this project is the transition from a fossil fuel based system to a system that relies heavily on the use of renewable energies. In this paper, it is argued that this transition is not a rational answer to the climate change problem. In particular, the use of feedin tariffs neither leads to an efficient reduction of CO₂ emissions nor is it a rational strategy for any other political aim under discussion.     

Are There Rational Bubbles in REITs? New Evidence from a Complex Systems Approach

This study applies a complex systems approach to test for the presence of rational bubbles in the Equity REITs market. The applied model is based on theoretical implications of the evolution of prices under rational bubble regimes. The advantage of the approach is twofold. The model is able to detect rational bubbles while they rise and to predict the most likely time of their collapse. We apply the model to daily price data on U.S. Equity REITs from 1989 to 2011. Our findings suggest the existence of a bubble for the period of 2003 to 2007. Tests for sub-markets reveal that the bubble developed in the Residential REITs market, but not in the Office REITs market.     

EU-Osterweiterung: eine Bilanz nach zehn Jahren

Ten years after the biggest enlargement in the history of the EU, the integration of the new member states is assessed positively. It is considered an economic success when looking at the income levels. However, due to overly optimistic assumptions and the crisis, economic integration and the catching-up process will take much longer for the new EU member states than originally expected. Moreover, new challenges are looming, especially as the Central and Eastern European accession countries adopt the euro. Smaller countries introduced the euro as quickly as possible, whereas larger countries have been much more hesitant, thinking twice not only because of several unsolved problems in the euro area but also because they use the exchange rate tool much more intensively. All new member states have to make sure they continue to increase their productivity and competitiveness. Findings suggest that after having entered the EU, the new eastern member states appear to have been developing rather stringent competition cultures. Bulgaria and Romania’s transition performance significantly differs from the pattern in the 2004 accession countries, both in terms of quantitative growth and institutional quality. These countries show that EU funds can be highly counter-productive since they help to conserve old structures.     

Double Lookbacks

A new class of options, double lookbacks , where the payoffs depend on the maximum and/or minimum prices of one or two traded assets is introduced and analyzed. This class of double lookbacks includes calls and puts with the underlying being the difference between the maximum and minimum prices of one asset over a certain period, and calls or puts with the underlying being the difference between the maximum prices of two correlated assets over a certain period. Analytical expressions of the joint probability distribution of the maximum and minimum values of two correlated geometric Brownian motions are derived and used in the valuation of double lookbacks. Numerical results are shown, and prices of double lookbacks are compared to those of standard lookbacks on a single asset.     

From ‘spaces of place’ to ‘spaces of flows’? Territorial and functional governance in cross‐border regions in Europe and North America

To what extent are we experiencing a transformation from ‘spaces of place’ to a ‘space of flows’ as proposed by Manuel Castells? Applying his thesis to the political system leads to the following implications. Socio‐economic processes of ‘glocalization’ are undermining the gate‐keeper position of national governments. Furthermore, governance is becoming ‘deterritorialized’, an aspect which is characterized by Elkins as an ‘unbundling’ of identities and jurisdictions. But does this process of unbundling lead to a federal system of multi‐level governance where the national level is complemented by supranational and subnational levels of governance; or does it imply an even more radical transformation towards an architecture of governance which is characterized by a proliferation of single‐purpose governments with variable and flexible spatial scales? A final implication is the transformation from ‘government to governance’— which means a broader array of actors and changing modes of interaction. This article traces these theses by analysing institutions of governance in four cross‐border regions in Europe and North America. In all regions we indeed find many cross‐border networks and institutions undermining the national gate‐keeper position. In Europe, cross‐border collaboration is producing another soft, but institutionalized, comprehensive, stable and territorially‐defined layer in the European ‘multi‐level‐system’. In North America, by contrast, only informal, fluid, specific and non‐territorial institutions are evolving across national borders. Here, the territorially‐based nation state is not complemented by similar kinds of political institutions, but is instead being challenged more fundamentally by new kinds of institutions: transnational socio‐economic exchange networks and transnational ideological coalitions which embody enormous transformational power. In conclusion, cross‐border regional governance in Europe still follows the logic of ‘spaces of place’, whereas in North America quite different ‘spaces of flows’ are emerging as complementary logics of community and institution building. Jusqu'où s'exerce la transformation d'un ‘espace de lieux’ en ‘espace des flux’, comme le suggère Manuel Castells? L'application de cette théorie au système politique a plusieurs implications. Les processus socio‐économiques de ‘glocalisation’ désagrègent la position de garde‐barrière des gouvernements nationaux. De plus, la gouvernance se ‘déterritorialise’, phénomène qu'Elkins appelle la ‘séparation’ des identités et des domaines de compétence. Mais à quel type de gouvernance cette ‘séparation’ mène‐t‐elle: à un système fédéral à plusieurs niveaux où le plan national est complété de plans supra‐ et infra‐nationaux de gouvernance? ou à un changement plus radical vers une architecture caractérisée par une prolifération de gouvernements à finalité unique dont les échelles spatiales varient et s'adaptent? Une dernière conséquence est le passage de gouvernement à gouvernance, qui se traduit par une diversification des acteurs et de nouveaux modes d'interactions. L'article retrouve ces thèses en analysant des institutions de gouvernance dans quatre régions transfrontalières européennes et nord‐américaines. Dans toutes les régions, l'étude identifie en effet de nombreux réseaux et institutions transfrontaliers qui minent la position de garde‐barrière nationale. En Europe, la collaboration transfrontalière crée une strate souple, quoique institutionnalisée, étendue, stable et aux limites territoriales définies dans le ‘système européen à plusieurs niveaux’. En Amérique du Nord, en revanche, n'interviennent à travers les frontières que des institutions informelles, fluides, spécifiques et non‐territoriales; l'État‐nation lié au territoire n'est pas complété d'institutions politiques de types similaires, étant plutôt profondément mis en cause par des institutions d'un genre nouveau: réseaux d'échanges socio‐économiques et coalitions idéologiques transnationaux qui expriment une énorme dynamique de transformation. Pour conclure, la gouvernance régionale transfrontalière en Europe obéit encore à la logique des ‘espaces de lieux’ tandis qu'en Amérique du Nord, des ‘espaces de flux’ tout à fait différents apparaissent dans une logique complémentaire de construction de communautés et d'institutions.