Does the choice of estimator matter when forecasting returns?

While the literature concerned with the predictability of stock returns is huge, surprisingly little is known when it comes to role of the choice of estimator of the predictive regression. Ideally, the choice of estimator should be rooted in the salient features of the data. In case of predictive regressions of returns there are at least three such features; (i) returns are heteroskedastic, (ii) predictors are persistent, and (iii) regression errors are correlated with predictor innovations. In this paper we examine if the accounting of these features in the estimation process has any bearing on our ability to forecast future returns. The results suggest that it does.     

Struggling with social capital: Pakistani women micro entrepreneurs’ challenges in acquiring resources

Abstract

A crucial aspect of successful venturing is social capital. In contrast to traditional Western-oriented research where social capital is construed positively, we found that in the traditional, patriarchal society of Pakistan, social capital puts high restrictions on women micro entrepreneurs – where social capital prevents or slows venturing efforts. Results also show that although women do get some selective access to resources from family members, they are restricted by limited access to social capital outside of family members. As women entrepreneurs have the potential to play an important role in the development of any society, and especially so in developing countries, based on the insights derived from this qualitative study, we propose suggestions for further research on women micro entrepreneurs in non-Western contexts.     

Why is Chinese provincial output diverging?

In a recent paper Pedroni and Yao (2006) present strong evidence suggesting that Chinese provincial per-capita output is diverging, a result that goes against the Chinese government’s goal of a balanced wealth-creation across provinces. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the reasoning behind this finding. Our main result is that the divergence does exist, even when new data and more advanced methods of analysis are used. We also find that it has both an idiosyncratic and a common component. Hence, the increased per-capita output inequalities observed at the provincial level is due to both province-specific disparities and to disparities between groups of provinces.     

Socially Responsible Investment and Fiduciary Duty: Putting the Freshfields Report into Perspective

A critical issue for the future growth and impact of socially responsible investment (SRI) is whether institutional investors are legally permitted to engage in it – in particular whether it is compatible with the fiduciary duties of trustees. An ambitious report from the United Nations Environment Programme’s Finance Initiative (UNEP FI), commonly referred to as the ‘Freshfields report’, has recently given rise to considerable optimism on this issue among proponents of SRI. The present article puts the arguments of the Freshfields report into some further both empirical and critical perspective, however, and suggests that its findings do not call for very much optimism. The general argument is that while the understanding of fiduciary duty outlined by the Freshfields report seems to allow institutional investors to at least sometimes take some social or environmental considerations into account, the support it gives for SRI is notably contingent and, furthermore, it rules out exactly the kind of SRI which proponents of social responsibility and environmental sustainability should hold in highest regard – proactive cases and socially effective investment strategies. If SRI is to become an important force for corporate social responsibility through its adoption by institutional investors, then, it is suggested that legal reform is needed.