The use of advance order data in demand forecasting

This paper uses advance order data and historical demand data from a manufacturing shop and from a service operation to develop and test a forecasting methodology for predicting customer demand over a forecast horizon. The proposed methodology uses simple linear regression to model the relationship between a total demand ratio and a partial demand ratio. Comparison of the proposed model to a standard regression approach and a commonly used multiplicative model showed that the proposed model exhibited the greatest forecast accuracy.     

Surviving Asymmetry in Capital Flows and the Business Cycles: The Role of Prudential Capital Controls

Past literature of different strands has pointed to a potential asymmetry: while portfolio capital inflows are largely irrelevant to the economy, capital outflows can cause recession. In a model with a convex investment and portfolio balance adjustment cost, and endogenous credit‐in‐advance constraint, we find that investment is determined solely by opportunity cost of physical capital unrelated to portfolio capital inflows when the constraint is slack. However, once credit availability is tightened up by capital outflows, the negative liquidity constraint dominates the opportunity‐cost factor, causing an economic downturn. Financial fragility against capital outflows is an outcome of pecuniary externalities, which, however, can be moderated by prudential capital controls. Even when exchange rates float freely, capital controls ease the macro‐stabilizing burden of monetary policy, as they help shield the economy from financial instability. Prudential tax on foreign debt is most preferred, and works the best when the exchange rate float is managed.     

Internet Adoption Among Malaysian Companies

The Internet technology is prevalently used in companies for business purposes. This research attempts to investigate the characteristics that are thought to influence such strategic decision of Internet adoption among the companies. Understanding the characteristics of Internet strategy in the business world helps the management to efficiently and effectively invest in Internet adoption plan. A survey was conducted to gather information from Malaysian companies. One hundred and fifteen usable responses were obtained for analysis. The findings of the study suggest the firms that wish to adopt higher level of Internet adoption should take account the support of information technology employees, overseas investment, and participation in international markets.     

入世后我国物流业的六大发展趋势

随着世界经济的快速发展和现代科学技术的进步，物流产业呈现出六大发展趋势，电子商务物流，绿色物流，物流规模经济，第三方物流，物流国际化及物流标准化，本文通过对这六大发展趋势的总结和分析，结合我国的实际情况，指出了在入世后激烈的竞争状态下，我国现代物流业的发展方向。     

Forecasting crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels

This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigating the impacts of changes on price, should inventories, production, imports, or demand change. This work is partially sponsored by the Office of Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Department of Energy, USA, and was presented at the International Atlantic Economic Conference, Athens, Greece, March 2001.