Optimism and auditor liability

There is strong evidence that individuals are optimistic in the sense that they underrate the probability of a negative event occurring. This paper provides a positive theoretical analysis of how auditor optimism affects their incentives to take care under two liability rules: strict liability and a negligence rule. Under strict liability, auditors are held liable when they cause damages to investors. Under a negligence rule, auditors are held liable when they cause damages and in addition, act negligently, that is, fail to meet the standard of due care specified in legal and professional rules. I find the following results. (1) If due care is sufficiently close to the efficient level, a negligence rule distorts auditors’ incentives less than strict liability. Under strict liability, optimism makes the auditor overestimate the chances of finding material mistakes and thus induces suboptimal care. (2) If due care is too strict, the auditor will not exert due care but the same level of suboptimal care under either liability rule. (3) With increasing optimism and in the absence of punitive damages, strict liability becomes less preferable to a precise negligence rule. This statement also holds for vaguely defined standards of due care if due care is sufficiently strict or if auditor optimism is sufficiently high. (4) Punitive damages counteract suboptimal incentives generated by auditor optimism, especially under strict liability.     

Measuring market integration in the presence of transaction costs–a threshold vector error correction approach

Applied econometric analyses of market integration based on price data alone have been criticised because they neglect the role of transaction costs. To meet this objection, threshold vector error correction models are used. Threshold models can account for the effects of transaction costs in price transmission without directly relying upon information about these costs, which are often unavailable. It is argued that threshold models that are based on two thresholds provide results that are economically more intuitive than those obtained from one-threshold models. However, to this point no adequate econometric test is available for threshold significance in a two-threshold model; such tests are only available for the one-threshold model. In this paper a restricted two-threshold model is developed in which the significance of the thresholds can be tested. This model is therefore amenable to economic interpretation and statistical inference. The model is used to estimate market integration in the European pig market.     

IPOs and IFRS in European exchange-regulated markets: A research note

This research note aims to enrich our understanding of reporting incentives of firms listed in European exchange-regulated markets. Many initial public offerings (IPOs) in Europe are within exchange-regulated markets where firms are allowed to choose between local GAAP and IFRS. Therefore, this research note describes the regulatory environment and investigates the choice to voluntarily adopt IFRS within European exchange-regulated markets. Overall, less than 20% of the firms voluntarily adopt IFRS and voluntary IFRS adoption upon IPO is positively associated with firm size, foreign firms, stocks offered to institutional investors prior to the IPO, and a future migration to an EU-regulated market.     

50 Jahre Baumol‘sche Kostenkrankheit

The year 2017 marks the 50th anniversary of William J. Baumol’s “Cost Disease”, which posits that services with low productivity growth become more expensive relative to goods while aggregate productivity growth slows down in the process of tertiarisation. The authors present the basic structure of Baumol’s model and discuss several attempts to refute the concept or to cope with its consequences. One of them is the important observation by Nicholas Oulton that business services — unlike personal services — can contribute to higher aggregate productivity growth. A major precondition is that the productivity growth of business services is positive. However, an empirical test shows that this is not the case in Germany and other major advanced economies. Some economic policy conclusions are drawn.     

Are there free rides out of a recession? The case of Switzerland

During the 2008/2009 recession, most countries resorted to discretionary fiscal policy measures. In this paper, we run two simulations with the KOF Swiss Economic Institute’s macroeconomic model to assess how both the Swiss stimulus measures, and the measures taken by Switzerland’s major trading partners, have affected the Swiss economy. The KOF baseline estimate incorporates fiscal stimulus packages in Switzerland and abroad. We re-run the model, modifying the exogenous variables to represent situations in which no fiscal action was taken (a) in Switzerland and (b) elsewhere. We find that the spillover from the foreign efforts to curb the recession dwarfs the effect of the domestic stimulus packages. In addition to making its own (rather limited) efforts to fight the recession, Switzerland also took a long free-ride that far exceeded the short one it paid for.