Der Einfluss des Versicherungskapitalanlagen-Bewertungsgesetzes (VersKapAG) auf Überschüsse und Überschussbeteiligung in der Lebensversicherung — Eine empirische Untersuchung —

On March 26, 2002 the valuation rules for securities of German insurance companies were amended. From the reporting year ending later than September 29, 2001, firms no longer need to apply the strict rules of short-term investment securities. If assets are classified as held-to-maturity or available-for-sale, temporary impairments need not be recognised in the profit and loss accounts. The legislator wanted to create a level playing field for financial institutions as similar rules were already applicable to banks. As an effect with-profits policies were expected to show a more stable pattern of profit sharing. Analysing data from 1998 to 2003 for German life insurers, no different picture of surplus-sharing emerges. This may be due to the fact that valuation rules are only one mechanism of surplus sharing, and other mechanisms that were well established already serve the insurance industry well enough to compete with other providers of financial products.     

Youth leisure careers during post‐communist transitions in the South Caucasus

This paper reports findings from interview surveys with 1215 respondents, split between the capital cities (Yerevan, Baku and Tbilisi) and one non‐capital region (Kotayk, Aran‐Mugan and Shida Kartli) in each of the three South Caucasus countries – Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. The respondents, who were drawn from households in larger representative household social surveys, were all born between 1970 and 1976 and were aged 31–37 at the time of the fieldwork in 2007. Their life stage transitions from childhood to adulthood had roughly coincided with their countries’ transitions from communism to post‐communism. Data was collected on the samples’ participation in selected leisure activities from age 16 to 30. Similar data was collected on the samples’ careers in education, the labour market, housing and family relationships. This information enables us to identify typical leisure careers and how their development was affected by events in other life domains, all in the context of the macro‐changes that were in process in each of the research locations. The evidence enables both personal leisure careers and aggregate leisure trends in different socio‐demographic groups to be identified This shows that changes in leisure behaviour between age 16 and 30 were neither widening nor narrowing the differences between the leisure of males and females, or those who married and became parents on the one hand, then, on the other, those who were still single and childless at age 30. In contrast, differences by place, and by social class, grew progressively wider, thus raising the social costs of geographical and social mobility. Changes in leisure behaviour between age 16 and 30 were separating young adults into those who participated in little, if any, structured out‐of‐home leisure, whose main leisure spending, if any, was on alcohol and tobacco (typically consumed in homes and neighbourhoods), and those whose leisure was characterised by relatively high and sustained participation in sport, consumption of high culture, and going out to bars, cafes, cinema, discos, etc.     

European and world energy perspectives: the 1980s and 1990s

Substantial successes have been achieved since 1973 in increasing energy efficiency and substituting other fuels for oil. However, reliance on oil and oil imports remains high. The temporary easing on the oil market must not lead to complacency as any relaxation in energy policy efforts may well contribute to provoking the next oil price shock.     

Stable mixture GARCH models

A new model class for univariate asset returns is proposed which involves the use of mixtures of stable Paretian distributions, and readily lends itself to use in a multivariate context for portfolio selection. The model nests numerous ones currently in use, and is shown to outperform all its special cases. In particular, an extensive out-of-sample risk forecasting exercise for seven major FX and equity indices confirms the superiority of the general model compared to its special cases and other competitors. Estimation issues related to problems associated with mixture models are discussed, and a new, general, method is proposed to successfully circumvent these. The model is straightforwardly extended to the multivariate setting by using an independent component analysis framework. The tractability of the relevant characteristic function then facilitates portfolio optimization using expected shortfall as the downside risk measure.     

Testing the Bhaduri–Marglin model with OECD panel data

The Bhaduri–Marglin model is a post-Kaleckian model that allows one to study the impact of a functional income distribution on the growth in demand. Over recent years, a number of empirical studies based on this model have aimed at determining whether a redistribution towards profits harms or fosters demand growth. The focus so far has been on a very limited number of countries. This paper is the first to test the Bhaduri–Marglin model with panel data. It finds that demand growth is reduced by a redistribution towards profits in the average OECD country. Productivity growth is also impaired.