Individual versus group spot price forecasting in the international petroleum market: A case study

This paper utilizes the conventional statistical tests associated with the rational expectations hypothesis so as to compare the relative accuracy of individual versus group forecasting within the organization. In order to maintain comparability between forecasting regimens the study employs like information sets for the two prediction methods. Using the rational expectations tests as criteria, the statistical results show group forecasts inferior to individually produced predictions These findings imply that group-produced forecasting accuracy may be hampered by the psychological interaction associated with consensus behavior. Conversely, we find forecasting accuracy improves when predictions are elicited from individuals in an isolated laboratory-like setting.     

Derivatives Activity at Troubled Banks

Because of moral hazard associated with deposit insurance, troubled banks that have a relatively thin capital cushion to absorb losses have an incentive to take speculative positions. Thus, the prevalence of problem banks among those actively engaged in derivatives markets should be of concern to bank supervisors. However, we find no evidence that bank supervisors take into account, either favorably or unfavorably, the derivatives activities of troubled banks in their decisions to downgrade bank ratings or impose regulatory actions. The derivatives activity of troubled banks should raise the same concerns expressed about banks' on–balance-sheet positions, namely, that they may not be fully exploiting hedging opportunities or may be placing their remaining capital at risk, intentionally or unintentionally.     

Ultrasound technology for better beef price

Sluggish growth in per capita consumption and a downward pressure on beef price at the farm level has required producers to raise cattle that precisely target the meat attributes desired by consumers. Coupled with the consumers' preference for beef with lean tissue and less external fat, the beef packing plants have used the dualistic grading system that emphasizes leanness and palatability; both important to carcass prices. Ultrasound technology can help farmers to produce a carcass with an optimal mix of attributes such as marbling and muscling, and external fat. The results of this study show a high level of accuracy of ultrasound technology in predicting carcass attributes. An estimated hedonic regression model shows that the carcass attributes are reflected on the implicit beef price. Ultrasound technology helps producers to produce carcass with the desired attributes and thus obtain a higher price.     

Stock Market Efficiency and the Federal Budget Deficit: Another Anomaly?

This paper investigates the efficiency of the U.S. stock market as it pertains to a number of major macrofinance variables that theory and empirical evidence suggest are important in rational stock pricing decisions. A multivariate vector autoregressive analysis is used to draw efficiency inferences. The estimated factor pricings are consistent with theory and previous empirical research. In addition, these results indicate that the stock market may be inefficient with respect to the federal budget deficit variable. Similar apparent inefficiency evidence is obtained for the term structure and risk premium variables. The authors cannot reject the efficiency hypothesis for industrial production, inflation, and base money. Using indirect causality tests, the authors find plausible intermediate information linkages connecting variables in the system. The term structure and risk premia variables consistently appear important as intermediate conduits through which information about other factors impact stock returns.     

Determinants of intra-industry trade: A longitudinal,cross-country analysis

Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade: A Longitudinal, Cross-Country Analysis. — This study examines the determinants of intra-industry trade (IIT using longitudinal data for 68 countries for 1970–1987. The analysis distinguishes between manufacturing and nonmanufacturing countries and compares traditional static estimates with dynamic ones. This approach permits distinctions between equilibrium and disequilibrium structures and, similarly, between historical and current sources of IIT. The results are generally supportive of IIT hypotheses, but there are important differences between manufacturing and nonmanufacturing countries and between the static and dynamic structures. Moreover, the extent of IIT appears to be dominated more by preference than by scale differentials, at least among manufacturing countries.     

Sudden equity price declines and the flight-to-safety phenomenon: additional evidence using daily data

Using daily data we show sudden, extreme declines in the U.S. stock market for crash dates to lead to a capital preserving (as opposed to strategic or tactical) reallocation to government debt securities. In most cases we find flight-induced reallocation reverses direction within one day of a crash. However, for the 1987 world crash we find increased and persistent return volatility in both equity and bond returns lasting up to five days following this dramatic decline in world equity prices. Like previous research in this area, we find equity crashes alter long-run stock/bond return correlations and lead to increased stock and bond return volatility. Finally, we describe the somewhat unique stock and bond correlation adjustments triggered by the 9/11 attack and the impact this event had on the behavior of U.S. equity investors?? flight-to-safety reaction.     

Advancing consumer neuroscience

In the first decade of consumer neuroscience, strong progress has been made in understanding how neuroscience can inform consumer decision making. Here, we sketch the development of this discipline and compare it to that of the adjacent field of neuroeconomics. We describe three new frontiers for ongoing progress at both theoretical and applied levels. First, the field will broaden its boundaries to include genetics and molecular neuroscience, each of which will provide important new insights into individual differences in decision making. Second, recent advances in computational methods will improve the accuracy and out-of-sample generalizability of predicting decisions from brain activity. Third, sophisticated meta-analyses will help consumer neuroscientists to synthesize the growing body of knowledge, providing evidence for consistency and specificity of brain activations and their reliability as measurements of consumer behavior.     

The job stress–job performance relationship in the social service encounter

• The current study empirically examines job performance by considering perceived customer demands as a new antecedent of job stress (JS) and the mediating role of emotion‐focused coping (EFC) on the relationship of JS and physical consequences (PC), and in‐turn job performance. A mailed survey that solicited 2500 social service providers working in the United States rendered a useable random sample of 533. Regression analyses supported the hypothesized relationships. Findings suggest that emotions play an important role in the quality of the social service encounter evidenced by the mediating role of EFC in the relationship between JS and job performance. The introduction of an intervening variable (i.e., EFC) in the JS–job performance relationship extends affective event theory (AET). The findings offer management new insights into the service encounter by identifying a source of JS that creates barriers to value added benefit creation.

Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.