Cinematic Explosion: New Products,Unpredictabilty and Realized Quality in the Digital Era

While file sharing has undermined firms’ ability to generate revenue for their products, other technological change has reduced entry barriers in cultural industries, with substantial positive impacts on the availability of new books and recorded music. Unpredictability of product quality is a generic feature of cultural goods, including music, books and movies, so an infusion of new products holds the possibility of bringing not just low‐appeal products but also new products that consumers find highly appealing. This paper explores the effects of reduced costs of production, promotion and distribution in the motion picture industry, asking four questions. First, we document substantial growth in the number of movies brought to market, particularly since the early 2000's. Second, we document growth in institutions by which consumers can discover new movies, many of which are produced outside of the major studios and not released in theaters. Third, we show that the new independent movies account for a growing share of commercially successful movies. Finally, we present evidence, based on both critical assessments and usage, that recent vintages are more appealing to consumers than earlier offerings. These findings on movies echo developments documented elsewhere for recorded music and books.     

Financial Market Turmoil： Implications for Monetary Policy Transmission in China

The recent financial market turmoil has initiated another search for insightful understanding of the interactions between the financial market and monetary policy. This paper explores these interactions in terms of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in China. We argue that evolving financial development, enhanced by the expansion of the financial market, has altered the conventional channel for monetary transmission in China. Analyzing marked changes in the financial landscape and taking into account policy regime shifts in China, the paper provides clear evidence showing that the financial market has become a new and important channel for transmission of monetary policy in China.     

Growing into Export Markets: The Impact of Exporting on Firm‐level Investment in Indonesia

This paper documents the impact of exporting on capital accumulation across heterogeneous manufacturing firms in Indonesia. The findings show that entering export markets significantly increases investment behavior during the year of initial entry and for as much as three years after entry. The results imply that the investment rate among new exporters is 37% higher than non‐exporters in the year of entry and 14–26% higher in the three years after entry. Using detailed data on firm ownership, the paper further show that foreign‐owned affiliates invest at systematically higher rates upon entry into export markets. The estimates indicate that domestically owned exporters are potentially credit constrained and suggest that improving credit market access may increase the investment rate among domestic exporters by as much as 40% in the year of entry.     

Behavioral Reasons for New Product Failure: Does Overconfidence Induce Overforecasts?

Efforts to organize and integrate research findings on new product performance determinants have lagged since the last significant overview paper appeared over a decade ago. Importantly, this literature has not considered entire categories of factors that are known to affect managerial decisions and behavior, namely those that pertain to decision‐makers' cognitive limitations and incentive structures. This research empirically investigates one specific cognitive distortion heretofore neglected in studies of new product commercialization—overconfidence, commonly defined in the literature as excessive belief in one's own abilities to generate superior performance. To lay the groundwork for subsequent exploration, the paper first introduces a behavioral model that both organizes well‐understood new product performance determinants and illuminates others heretofore not studied, namely incentive alignment and cognitive limitations and biases. The model summarizes extant research and allows development of research hypotheses related to overconfidence. The hypotheses and empirical investigation motivated by the model address two questions about the impact of overconfidence on new product commercialization activities. First, the study explores whether overconfidence is associated with overforecasting new product demand. Second, it evaluates two complementary mechanisms that may account for overconfidence‐induced overforecasts. The empirical findings are based on data generated in the course of management simulation workshops conducted among graduate students at three leading business schools in India. Three hundred thirty participants played individually four rounds of a computer‐based simulation game that involved decisions pertaining to new product development (including product formulation) and commercialization strategies. The decisions were captured and analyzed using statistical techniques. The results reveal that decision‐makers' overconfidence is associated with a higher likelihood of overforecasting new product sales. The observed effect is fully mediated by flawed tactical decisions that dampen demand, namely elevated product pricing. Sensitivity analyses show that these results are robust to a number of alternative explanations. However, the study finds no evidence implicating overconfident individuals as poor “innovators”—overconfident and nonoverconfident decision‐makers experienced comparable market demand for their new products. The paper concludes with a discussion of the results and provides specific recommendations for practice.     

A framework for developing word fragment completion tasks

To broaden our understanding of the person-based phenomena that impact organizational behavior, researchers are increasingly making use of implicit measures. Explicit measures tap affect, attitudes, and self-concepts that are accessible to introspective awareness, which are sometimes unreliable or distorted by response biases. In contrast, implicit measures assess mental content and processes that operate outside awareness. Unfortunately, the ad hoc manner in which implicit measures are sometimes developed is problematic. As a way of improving research on implicit content and processes, we present a detailed and practical framework for developing one type of implicit measure: word fragment completion tasks. Such tasks have been successfully used to measure a variety of individual difference variables in previous organizational research. Our framework draws on previous research and well understood psychometric principles to describe a process for creating reliable and valid word fragment completion tasks.     

D-optimal weighing designs for six objects

For all integers m≥6, we determine the maximum value of det X ^T X, where X is an m×6 (0, 1)-matrix, and exhibit (D-optimal) matrices X for which the maximum occurs. For D-optimal matrices X, the uniqueness of the Gram matrix X ^T X is discussed. Received: May 2000     

Rational Strategic Reasoning: An Unnatural Act?

We review recent literature on competitive reactions and strategic thinking and offer several observations. Evidence is mounting that strategic thinking is an unnatural act, made difficult by natural individual biases and organizational roadblocks. In addition, it is possible that uncertainty about competitive behavior is caused by and contributes to informal and incomplete competitive intelligence. We propose a simple model which suggests a potential path dependency in a firm's intelligence gathering, driven by the inertia of its past decision-making. Such a path dependency can be broken, however, as evidenced by several examples of firms who have overcome barriers to strategic thinking in creative ways. Paradoxically, though, there are circumstances in which competition is overemphasized in decision-making. Research priorities are discussed.     

Gender Comparisons in Strategic Decision-Making: An Empirical Analysis of the Entrepreneurial Strategy Matrix

The strategic decision-making of male and female small businesspersons and entrepreneurs has been investigated in prior research, but the findings are mixed. This article reports on a gender comparison testing of the Entrepreneurial Strategy Matrix, a situational model which suggests strategies for new and ongoing ventures in response to the identification of different levels of venture innovation and risk. A national sample of 184 small firm owers (59 percent male/41 percent female) was tested. Results indicate that there are no significant gender differences in venture innovation/risk situation or in strategies chosen by business owners. Male respondents did indicate a higher overall satisfaction with venture performance than did females.     

Low-latency trading

We define low-latency activity as strategies that respond to market events in the millisecond environment, the hallmark of proprietary trading by high-frequency traders though it could include other algorithmic activity as well. We propose a new measure of low-latency activity to investigate the impact of high-frequency trading on the market environment. Our measure is highly correlated with NASDAQ-constructed estimates of high-frequency trading, but it can be computed from widely-available message data. We use this measure to study how low-latency activity affects market quality both during normal market conditions and during a period of declining prices and heightened economic uncertainty. Our analysis suggests that increased low-latency activity improves traditional market quality measures—decreasing spreads, increasing displayed depth in the limit order book, and lowering short-term volatility. Our findings suggest that given the current market structure for U.S. equities, increased low-latency activity need not work to the detriment of long-term investors.