An Intraweek Seasonality in the Implied Volatilities of Individual and Index Options

This paper studies intraweek seasonalities in the implied volatilities of options on stock market indices. Oneway analysis of variance isolates the daily behavior of implied volatilities. The differential between call implied volatility and put implied volatility tends to drop on Friday and rise on Monday. Relying on a synthetic futures contract created from options, an explanatory model is proposed. The model complements previous research on the difference between the intraweek behavior of stock market indices and that of derivative instruments based on the indices.     

Seize the state, seize the day: state capture and influence in transition economies

Data from the 1999 Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey is used to examine state capture and influence in transition economies. We find that a capture economy has emerged in many transition countries, where rent-generating advantages are sold by public officials and politicians to private firms. While influence is a legacy of the past inherited by large, incumbent firms with existing ties to the state, state capture is a strategic choice made primarily by large de novo firms competing against influential incumbents. Captor firms, in high-capture economies, enjoy private advantages in terms of more protection of their own property rights and superior firm performance. Despite the private gains to captor firms, state capture is associated at the aggregate level with social costs in the form of weaker economy-wide firm performance. Journal of Comparative Economics 31 (4) (2003) 751–773.     

PREPAYMENT RISK AND THE DURATION OF DEFAULT-FREE MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES

The conventional duration measure for mortgage-backed pass-through securities assumes that the prepayment rate is invariant to changes in market interest rates. In this paper, the conventional duration is modified to take into account the interest-rate sensitivity of mortgage prepayments. Including interest rate sensitivity is shown to reduce substantially the duration of a mortgage-backed pass-through security when the current mortgage rate is less than the contract rate.     

THE INTEGRATION OF A SYSTEM OF PRICE AND QUANTITY STATISTICS WITH DATA ON RELATED VARIABLES

This paper has two main points. First, the usefulness of the industry detail called for in the SNA would be increased if it were altered to facilitate the construction of price and quantity aggregates classified by stage-of-process sectors. Second, the price and quantity data so arranged should be augmented by data on behaviorally related variables classified the same way. The feasibility of the stage-of-process approach is demonstrated by a table showing the high degree to which the U.S. input-output table for 1967 can be triangularized. The analytical usefulness of the approach is demonstrated through analysis of changes in prices, output, unfilled orders and finished goods inventories for primary and for finished goods manufacturers.     

Debt and capital accumulation in a two-sector model with non-traded goods

The paper examines optimal debt and capital accumulation for an open economy which faces an imperfect international capital market. The major finding is that the optimal pattern of debt and capital accumulation is affected by relative factor intensities. Factor intensities determine whether substitution or complementary relationships exist between debt and capital. The relationship between the country's net wealth and its two components financial and productive are also determined by factor intensities.     

The Impact of Product Market Competition on Employers’ Training Investments. Evidence from German Establishment Panel Data

According to different training theories the sign of the relationship between competition and training is ambiguous. Using a large panel data set of German manufacturing establishments, this paper investigates the impact of product market competition on training incidence and on the share of trained workers. In our empirical analysis, we use three indicators of product market competition which are the Herfindahl index, the number of firms at the 3-digit industry level and the price-cost margin. After controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, there is no statistically significant effect of product market competition on training.     

Retailing and the period leading up to the Great Recession: a model and a 25-year financial ratio analysis of US retailing

Today, more than ever, retailers need to analyze the key solvency (liquidity) and efficiency financial ratio measures that affect how well their firms perform and to engage in long-term activities that will lead to improved results. Clearly, the recent ‘Great Recession’ has had a significant negative impact on retailers worldwide. Yet, an important question remains largely answered: Was the retail industry a major contributor to the events leading up to the economic crisis or was it an affected bystander shaken by the recession? This paper addresses the question for US retailing, the largest retail economy in the world. Although there has been considerable research on some aspects of the performance of the industry and individual firms, no prior studies exist that comprehensively examine the financial ratio performance of the totality of US retailing over time. Here, the financial performance of US retailers in 54 different sectors is analyzed for the 1982–2007 period using a model and data derived from Dun & Bradstreet's annual Industry Norms & Key Business Ratios. Results show that for many financial measures – such as the current ratio, liabilities to net worth, return on sales (profit margin), return on assets, financial leverage, and return on net worth – US retailing's financial performance has been in a steady decline for decades. The model introduced here is largely validated.     

Ratings quality over the business cycle

Credit rating agencies (CRAs) have long held that reputational concerns discipline their behavior. The value of reputation, however, depends on economic fundamentals that vary over the business cycle. In a model of ratings incorporating endogenous reputation and a market environment that varies, we find that ratings quality is countercyclical. Specifically, a CRA is more likely to issue less-accurate ratings when fee-income is high, competition in the labor market for analysts is tough, and securities' default probabilities are low. Persistence in economic conditions can diminish our results, while mean reversion exacerbates them. The presence of naive investors reduces overall quality, but quality remains countercyclical. Finally, we demonstrate that competition among CRAs yields similar results.     

Social marketing: thoughts from an empathetic outsider

ABSTRACT

Social marketing holds great hope for promoting well-being and social good. Yet, as a ‘master’s tools’ strategy it must be deployed carefully and critically to ensure campaigns are not co-opted by the individualising and issue shaping forces of mainstream marketing. Moreover, social marketing strategies should go beyond promoting better and healthier choices for individuals, and be deployed to encourage critical thinking, political engagement and social action.